PLAY THE HUGE VALUE ON BETDAQ: Compare the bookmaker take-outs at Goodwood yesterday of 122, 122, 119, 119, 126, 128 and a staggering 132% with the morning’s BETDAQ offers today of 101, 101, 107, 105, 109, 105% at the time Daqman made his selections from the first six races.
BID FOR FIVE BANKERS IN A ROW: Daqman goes all in on odds-against Montiridge today in a bid for five successive winning bankers after Maputo (WON 3-10), Cut The Cards (WON 5-6), Portrait (WON 3-10) and Rosie Probert (WON 2-5).
1.55 Goodwood We’re in the hands of the weather yet again at Goodwood today, with a tropical hot-sun-threatened-by-thunderstorms outlook. Will it be firm enough for Forgotten Voice or soft enough for Aiken and Arc third Masterstroke, who have the best Group form?
Over my cornflakes I have ‘good, good to firm in places following a dry night.’ I’m a forgotten voice myself this week, but I’m forced to hope that the eponymous Henderson horse doesn’t continue my cereal lack of success.
2.30 Goodwood Jersey Stakes second and third, Montiridge and Tawhid, have had the form propped up this week by Garswood (fourth).
Montiridge’s Richard Hannon stablemate, Baltic Knight, has looked Listed level at best, and the danger to the Jersey duo must be Glory Awaits, who has twice performed well behind Dawn Approach since blinkers were applied.
Glory Awaits likes to dominate but so does Montiridge and he toyed with Listed-level opposition on the July Course.
3.05 Goodwood Mile Mark Johnston has had only Broxbourne and Broughton so far in Goodwood Week, where Richard Hannon has had Viewpoint, Brown Sugar, Toronado, Toormore and Magic City.
All seven have one thing in common: they are all below the age of five, and that’s the pattern in this race, with six of the last seven winners aged three and four.
Low numbers have continued to dominate with winners by stall 1, 2, 6, 1, 7, 10 up to the apprentice race yesterday, following 1 (twice), 7 and 9 and 1, 2, 4, 7 on the first two days.
Cape Peron (9.6 on BETDAQ this morning) is a stats horse who won’t want it too firm, but comes here from the key three-year-old race for this, the Britannia at Royal Ascot.
I shall also take Richard Hannon’s Wentworth out of that race (fourth): he was snookered at Goodwood in a sprint (got into a pocket) on his reappearance and then was drawn highest of all in a race for the Britannia won down the middle. Richard Hughes will be hoping stall 13 is lucky today.
Mark Johnston’s Windhoek (in stall 3) could bounce back – has done all his winning on firm ground – but a bigger threat may be one of the week’s Ballybrit stars, Brendan Bracken (11.5), who acts on most terrain.
Ger Lyon has flown him over just three days after a storming success at the Galway Festival and his penalty, more than cancelled out by Colin Keane’s 5lb, still leaves him miles ahead of any revised rating.
BIG-RACE 1-2-3: Brendan Bracken could be a Group horse in a handicap and is said to thrive on racing. So I go 1 Brendan Bracken, 2 Wentworth, 3 Cape Peron.
I can’t have Dance And Dance, whose sole claim to fame is his fourth in the Bunbury Cup, blinkered for the first time. There is no guarantee the blinkers will work again; and he’s a 7-year-old in the ‘coffin box’ stall 1. Place lay.
3.40 Goodwood (King George Stakes) The Kings Stand is the pointer to this: 6 out of 10 winners have come from down the field in that Royal Ascot race, just like Swiss Spirit, Bungle Inthejungle, Medicean Man, Kingsgate Native and Spirit Quartz (needs rain).
Kingsgate Native had come out top in the Temple Stakes at Haydock in the Spring but was lucky to beat the twice-hampered Swiss Spirit, who’d had two races in 10 days after finding rain-softened ground against him in a Group 2 at York.
In the Sandown Sprint a month ago, Kingsgate Native was a length off the winner Tickled Pink but is 2lb worse off here.
The form, then, suggests that this prize rests between Swiss Spirit and Tickled Pink, with the grey Pink the one with the low draw.
Jwala is with a trainer, Robert Cowell, who can improve a sprinter into the front rank, and the Wokingham fifth Glass Office is fairly well placed in 10 to post a career best (led a furlong out at Ascot and should be finishing well).
BIG-RACE 1-2-3: Tickled Pink and Swiss Spirit were similar offers at around 7.7 on BETDAQ this morning. There’s often something creeps into a place at huge odds in these sprints, and 34.0 Glass Office has transparent form: 1 Swiss Spirit, 2 Tickled Pink, 3 Glass Office.
4.15 Goodwood Last-time winners have taken this six years in a row. Horses carrying 8st 10lb or less are 8 out of 10. And, as we said earlier, low numbers are best.
4.50 Goodwood Nell Gwyn third and 1,000 Guineas fourth Winning Express made no mistake dropped to a Listed at Warwick but only one favourite has won this in six seasons.
Pavlosk was bang there against the 1,000 winner at today’s trip in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, and Shuruq has Group-3 form in Dubai.
5.25 Goodwood The stats suggest you can drop the bottom out of this handicap: there’s been no winner with less than 8st 7lb in the saddle.
Goodwood Mirage won here in June under Frankie Dettori and is back in his grade but there’s a question mark over the extra furlong which doesn’t apply to 1m 4f winners Northern Meeting and Retirement Plan, while the Johnston horse, Statutory, is unexposed.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 30 points each, except for the banker)
GOLD VALUE BET: 6pts win FORGOTTEN VOICE and 2.3pts win (stakes saver) MASTERSTROKE (1.55 Goodwood)
BANKER 20pts win MONTIRIDGE (2.30 Goodwood)
PLACE LAY 10pts DANCE AND DANCE, and GOLD VALUE BETS: 3.4pts win on each CAPE PERON and WENTWORTH and 2.8pts win BRENDAN BRACKEN (3.05 Goodwood)
VALUE BETS: 4.4pts win on each TICKLED PINK and SWISS SPIRIT, and 1pt win and place GLASS OFFICE (3.40 Goodwood)
VALUE BETS: 6.5pts win PAVLOSK, 2pts win SHURUQ and 3.4pts win (stakes saver) WINNING EXPRESS (4.50 Goodwood)
GOLD VALUE BETS: 5.5pts win on each RETIREMENT PLAN and NORTHERN MEETING (5.25 Goodwood)
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