HAYDOCK SOAKED AND MORE RAIN FORECAST: WATCH YOUR BETS! Consistent good ground was the key to Daqman’s 27-winner fortnight of fantastic tipping but the rains came down, so much so that Saturday’s big sprint at Haydock is affected and today’s cards are split like a Brexit vote: Ascot firm; Haydock soft with more rain forecast. Says Daqman: ‘I was happy – without collecting – about Derby-entry Grand Bazaar’s first run yesterday; money is only lent until we see him on better ground’.
CHECK OUT YOUR SOFT-GROUND FANCY IN THE BETDAQ MARKET: Today Daqman details the soft-ground form of the Haydock Sprint field, concentrating on the three-year-olds, who usually win the race. ‘For all your Haydock bets, the market is the best guide on soft ground with the more exposed horses, so keep your Daq up today and look for mud-loving movers and shakers’
SOVEREIGNS DOUBTFUL FOR THE SPRINT
Rain stops play on the favourite. Ten Sovereigns, who beat Advertise and Fairyland in the July Cup on firm going, is unlikely to run in tomorrow’s Haydock Sprint because of soft ground, with Fairyland promoted Ballydoyle’s number one.
The story is similar to last year, which Aidan O’Brien knows all too well. Three-year-olds were on a five-timer until heavy ground stopped them. O’Brien’s Gustav Klimt, third, unfancied at 16-1, was their nearest to the winner, which was The Tin Man, aged six.
They had a formidable vanguard this year, with three of them clear in the markets, though soft ground has been a persistent worry about the participation of Ten Sovereigns in the countdown to Saturday’s race.
Aidan O’Brien was to some extent pacified when told by the executive that they will race on fresh ground, but his first reaction on seeing yesterday’s races at Haydock was to consider withdrawing the favourite today. Ryan Moore would switch to Fairyland. The three-year-olds in the Sprint tomorrow are:
122 Ten Sovereigns (DOUBTFUL) Aidan O’Brien (form on soft none; good to soft 14) Ryan Moore
119 Advertise Martyn Meade (form on soft none; good to soft 1) Frankie Dettori
116 Khaadem Charles Hills (form on soft none; good to soft 102) Jim Crowley
114 Hello Youmzain Kevin Ryan (form on soft 1; good to soft 1243) James Doyle
112 Forever In Dreams +3 Aidan Fogarty (form on soft none; good to soft 1) W J Lee
110 Fairyland +3 Aidan O’Brien (form figures on soft 1; good to soft 12) P B Beggy
108 So Perfect+3 Aidan O’Brien (form on soft 1; good to soft 33) Wayne Lordan
Also: 119 Dream of Dreams (S: 1220, GS:21321); 116 Brando (H-S: 411000241), 112 Waldpfad (S 23, GS41), 114 Invincible Army (S 21), 114 The Tin Man (SH 2030100), 108 Major Jumbo (SH 301 GS 01111). Key: h=heavy, s=soft, gs = good to soft; g=good, f=firm)
(Ratings are official handicapper’s assessment; +3 = fillies’ allowance)
ANTE-POST VERDICT: Keep away from this one until the day, because several are likely to drop out. I shall be advising an early-Saturday position but, with this race fifth down the card, and conditions likely to worsen, you might need another bet nearer the ‘off’.
The winner is seldom a huge price but, as you see from my quick guide to going preferences, the short-odds three-year-olds may again be up against it on soft-heavy.
FOCUS ON A HEAVY-GROUND WINNER
2.55 Haydock Look out for a worsening conditions, with withdrawals and ‘strange’ results. One that should stand his ground – and love it – is CD winner on heavy, Hyperfocus.
But overnight moves with the bookies were for Danzan and Ptarmigan Ridge. Be careful: that’s Danzan, who hasn’t won on turf for two years, not Danzeno, a Haydock CD winner on firm.
Ptarmigan Ridge is a Haydock soft-ground winner but over another furlong, so plenty of use will have to be made of him here.
Conversely, Youkan’s sole success was here at Haydock but over 5f. Keep an eye on Tawny Port, who is prepping for the Ayr Gold Cup.
The grey Ice Lord is quirky sort but could win it on a going day. His success in the last two years has all come between August and October, and he seems to act on any ground. Alaadel likes it soft but is pretty high in the handicap now and has won only in class 3.
Ptarmigan Ridge (at 12.5) was three points higher to exchange on BETDAQ this morning than with the bookies, and Hyperfocus offers were constant at around 7.5.
A WORTHY FAVOURITE ON PAPER..
4.00 Haydock Alemaratalyoum is 3-3 here at Haydock on all types of ground, and is back within a pound of his winning mark. Progeny of his sire, Lope De Vega, do well on the soft.
Back to form (second) unfancied on Saturday, Alemaratalyoum has run 0040002 as an outsider between 14-1 and 50-1 this year. His form when starting between 9-2 and 8-1 is 112101. Haydock form 111.
Even better placed in the handicap is Get Knotted, 7lb lower than for success over this trip at a higher level. But he is best known at 7f and a 1m at York,
Parys Mountain’s success has come in lower grade and the grey was a big drifter overnight and on BETDAQ (to 22.0).
Lincoln Park, a class-5 winner on heavy here, boosted his ability by scoring in class 2 at Chester (soft) but has disappointed since.
Molls Memory is not out of it on form, and is well drawn, but was another easy to back at around 15.5. I took 3.3 Alemaratalyoum, which is an Emirates newspaper.
OVERNIGHT GAMBLE ON LORD NORTH
4.10 Ascot In-the-know punters couldn’t wait for prices to go up about Lord North last night, quickly halved with the bookies from an opening 4-1 for his handicap debut. He and the other three-year-old, Dubai Legacy, could step up here.
Zhui Feng likes Ascot; Chiefofchiefs goes well fresh; Seniority would prefer a turning track but Bless Him is a big threat.
Jamie Spencer has 50% strike rate on the one-time Britannia winner over this course and distance but he needs the going to stay ‘on top’, and won’t want the forecast showers to get into the ground.
The obvious position to take is some early Lord North (at around 3.0 on BETDAQ), then wait until the race to see if conditions still favour Bless Him. I have arranged my stakes so that one winner pays for all bets.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.55 Haydock (win 20)
BET 3pts win HYPERFOCUS
BET 1.75pts win PTARMIGAN RIDGE
4.00 Haydock (win 20)
BET 10pts win (nap) ALEMARATALYOUM
4.10 Ascot (win 15)
BET 7.5pts win LORD NORTH
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