DOUBLE WHAMMYS: WIN WITH THE WINNERS AND THE LOSERS: Daqman dares two double-whammys to bring a bit of spice to some low-key cards today. His nap is a royal runner in the last race at Haydock. Eight meetings tomorrow with terrestrial TV at Haydock and Beverley, another free-as-you-go no-commission afternoon for BETDAQ punters.
NEXT WEEK: DON’T MISS DAQMAN’S COUNTDOWN TO THE DERBY: Looking for an outsider in the Derby? When you check out the form, ignore the myths and fake news, then look out next week for Daqman’s ABC facts and figures. Today: the Derby early-warning system.
THE DERBY EARLY-WARNING SYSTEM
Wait for it! If you’re keen to have an early bet on the Derby with only eight days to go, make sure you investigate the stats and facts of the race and its runners.
I’ll go through my version next week in my ABC guide, analysing each colt so that together we can reckon the probabilities.
Meanwhile, check out these myths and warnings. You have to wait, of course, for the Draw and the Favourites. So why mention them now?
The art of betting is to reduce or lengthen the odds you need, according to the data available. If there is an element missing, you have to build it into the odds you want. So, at this stage, you are really looking for an outsider.
The trick is to take long odds that you think will shorten next week and on the day and give you ‘overs’ to play with.
Perhaps beliefs about the Derby are way off the mark; perhaps you have your own ideas to inject into the assessment; make a market of your own and check it out aløngside the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value offers.
Draw: Low is essential because of the left-hand bends. Not true. There’s been only one winning stall below 7 since 2009.
In the last decade, the winners by draw have been: 5, 7 (twice), 8 (twice), 9, 10, 12 (twice) and 14. Maybe there is bias after all!
Experience: Your horse must have it. Not true again. Derby winners are mainly matured from very few races and careful home preparation. The last 10 winners had between two and five career starts only, before taking the Classic.
Favourites: They always win? Not even half true. Only three (just one at odds on) have scored in the decade.
Trials: The Guineas is the best trial. No, not these days. Only Sea The Stars (2009) and Camelot (2012) have done the double this century.
But the Dante has provided four winners: North Light, Motivator, Authorized and Golden Horn.
And the Derrinstown had a sensational run as kingmaker between 2000 and 2006. Sinndar, Galileo and High Chaparral plus Dylan Thomas (Irish Derby) and Yeats (Gold Cup) won it in the space of seven seasons.
Value: The prices will all be gone on the day. Not true. Value is right there at the click of your mouse, because BETDAQ offers add up to only around 103% overround on the morning of the race.
You are getting value whatever you choose from the punter-friendly orange in almost a level playing field. Compare with the bookies’ Total SP percentages in recent Derbys of 121 to 126% overround.
Going: This year it’s not advisable to pick a soft-ground colt, as far as we can tell. The forecast is that Epsom comes at the end of a week of warm sunshine: but it won’t be firm ground; you can expect watering of the track.
BETDAQ EXCHANGE BETTING: Derby outsiders 9 Mac Swiney, Mohaafeth, 10.0 Third Realm, 11.0 Hurricane Lane, 12.5 John Leeper, 28 Sir Lamorak, 32 Van Gogh, 38 Youth Spirit, 41 Lone Eagle
NEXT WEEK: Where the winner comes from plus ABC stats and how to bet for value.
DOUBLE WHAMMY-1: YAGAN SNAG
⭕ 3.35 Yarmouth On Tuesday, Sir Mark Prescott struck first time in a handicap with the well-prepared The Tide Turns. I napped it as a potential sequence horse.
Here he has created a similar situation, educating Yagan with four quick runs in the autumn, ready to go handicapping today, stepped up in trip.
Yagan, an Australia related on the dam’s side to Group-placed horses up to 1m 4f, gets a solid slab of 15lb weight from the penalised King Viktor who, in normal circumstances at this level, would be going over the top.
Viktor has been victorious three times down in class 6 and, by sneaking him in here 3lb below his revised weight, Brian Ellison hopes to grab one more under the radar before he has to be raised in class.
Can he land a four-timer sequence against the master of the sequence horse, Sir Mark Prescott? Have a double whammy – backing one and laying the favourite – to small stakes.
LAYS LOGIC 2.18 (green) King Viktor
BETDAQ value 5.1 (orange) Yagan
WHAMMY-2: A THOUSAND TO ONE
⭕ 6.10 Haydock The Eileendover bubble has already burst. After a hat-trick sequence in the autumn, she was – perhaps too fresh – well beaten on her return last month.
Can Pam Sly’s filly return to form, giving more than a stone to a Classically-bred Team Gosden filly who has looked exciting on the gallops and caught the eye on debut at Kempton three weeks back?
My man in the long grass tells me that Thousand Oaks, by Kingman out of a Galileo mare, is expected to go places. The £4,347 first prize could prove to be little acorns for Oaks in the future.
This is a potential double whammy at morning offers but, if the odds between the pair tighten up, after you’ve taken some 4.5 Thousand Oaks, you might want to save on an Eileendover eased to odds against. BETDAQ offers you choice.
LAYS LOGIC 1.9 Eileendover
BETDAQ value 4.5 Thousand Oaks
MORE BETDAQ VALUE ON STREAM
⭕ 8.30 Haydock TWO horses here seem better than the bare form. George Bass, claiming 5lb, is 2-2 on Greystoke, who is 0-8 when ridden by others.
George appears to be needed even more now to keep Greystoke’s weight down. After two victories, he failed to reach the frame on the last day.
But it’s not what it seems. Greystoke’s victories were in class 4 and 5 races and he was out of his depth last time in the London Gold Cup at Newbury in a class 2. He reverts to class 4 today.
Chalk Stream is a tough opponent as a ready winner of his first handicap at Leicester last week for The Queen.
The gelded son of Sea The Stars has been hiked 9lb to 80 but is another ducking under the radar; he gets in here 3lb lower than his future mark. Which way to go? Chalk Stream is less exposed and that 3lb may make the difference.
BETDAQ value 3.5 Chalk Stream, 5.8 Greystoke.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.35 Yarmouth (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win YAGAN
6.10 Haydock (win 10)
BET 2.75pts win THOUSAND OAKS
8.30 Haydock (win 10 nap)
BET 4pts win CHALK STREAM
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
