DAQMAN’S BETTING SECRETS: A DERBY WINNER’S CV: As well as checking past results to find turnkey races to the Classics (see yesterday’s Guineas), Daqman checks out profiles of the leading contenders on career start time and races run. So here’s another view of his Classics homework, this time on the Derby.
SEE HOW THEY WON: EPSOM DERBY
⚠️ HEADS UP As well as his performance in key races, a colt’s rating and his experience could be a guide to his chances in the Epsom Derby.
RATINGS on the left of the last 10 Epsom winners (below) are followed by their form and the number of races they ran before the Derby. The date is the day of their debut as a two-year-old.
Go back further to Aidan O’Brien’s first two winners and you find that Galileo didn’t appear until 28 October as a two-year-old but ran three times (three wins) before the Derby victory.
High Chaparral didn’t appear until 30 September but had five races before Epsom, winning four in a row.
🏇 121 CAMELOT (11-1 Aidan O’Brien) 14 July; 3 races
🏇 119 AUSTRALIA (211-3 Aidan O’Brien) 30 June; 4 races
🏇 118 ANTHONY VAN DYCK (0111230-1 Aidan O’Brien) 1 July; 8 races
🏇 118 GOLDEN HORN (1-11 John Gosden) 29 October; 3 races
🏇 117 MASAR (131300-13 Charlie Appleby) 15 May; 8 races
🏇 113 POUR MOI (01-31 Andre Fabre) 23 September; 4 races
🏇 110 HARZAND (0-11 Dermot Weld) 20 September; 3 races
🏇 109 RULER OF THE WORLD (-11 Aidan O’Brien) nil ; 2 races
🏇 109 WINGS OF EAGLES (0140-2 Aidan O’Brien) 29 July; 5 races
🏇 108 WORKFORCE (1-2) Sir Michael Stoute) 23 September; 2 races
O’BRIEN FREE STRIKE AT PINATUBO
⚠️ HEADS UP: A latish starter but with four runs already and rated 108. That suggests Aidan O’Brien’s Mogul is a strong player among my ‘See How They Won’ contenders for the Epsom Derby.
But it’s a close-run thing at Ballydoyle, with Innisfree just a pound behind and also with four runs to his name.
Both are by Galileo; both have middle-distance stamped in their pedigree; both finished in an O’Brien group of three just behind the winner, Kameko, in the Futurity, which was run at Newcastle in November. Kameko is not certain to stay.
Pinatubo debuted earlier than any of the last 10 Derby winners, though Masar was an early bird, starting a few days later. What does it all mean in this year without the Spring trials: see Fortune Cookies later this week.
🏇 128 PINATUBO (111111- Charlie Appleby) 10 May; 6 races
🏇 118 KAMEKO (1221- Andrew Balding) 25 July; 4 races
🏇 113 MILITARY MARCH (11- Saeed Bin Suroor) 27 July; 2 races
🏇 112 AL SUHAIL (2132- Charlie Appleby) 12 July; 4 races
🏇 110 ARMORY (3111232- Aidan O’Brien) 13 June; 7 races
🏇 110 MAX VERGA (211- Ralph Beckett) 5 September; 3 races
🏇 108 MOGUL (2114- Aidan O’Brien) 14 August; 4 races.
🏇 107 INNISFREE (2112- Aidan O’Brien) 6 July; 4 races
🏇 106 MYTHICAL (0143- Aidan O’Brien) 8 August; 4 races
🏇 101 BRENTFORD HOPE (1- Richard Hughes) 23 October; 1 race
🏇 100 WALDKONIG (1- John Gosden) 7 December; 1 race
🏇 098 HIGHEST GROUND (1- Michael Stoute) 23 September; 1 race
🏇 098 PALACE PIER (11- John Gosden) 30 August; 2 races
🏇 091 SATONO JAPAN (1- Sir Michael Stoute) 23 October; 1 race
* Brentford Hope, Highest Ground, Satono Japan, Waldkonig ratings are all notional
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