DAQMAN’S FIRST AGAIN! HE HITS DAY-ONE DOUBLE WHAMMY: Though winners were hard to find up to 100-1, Daqman delivered a double whammy in the Aintree Festival’s first big race yesterday when he predicted: (Silviniaco) ‘Conti out for the count.’ As well as laying the evens favourite, who finished third, he tipped First Lieutenant (WON 7-2). So first again!
NOW FOR A STAR TO BEAT SPRINTER SACRE: Daqman is laying against the price of Sprinter Sacre today but, on the offers in the orange, is ‘banging the drum’ (his words) about ‘punter-friendly in the extreme’ offers (his words again), with total percentages as low as 101, 101, 102 and 105 per cent at the time of making his selections.
2.00 Aintree This has leapt in quality from a 128-rated winner to a 138 and, in the last two seasons, winners off ratings of 145 and 148. Only My Tent Or Yours (158) and Forgotten Voice (147) would continue the upward trend.
Forgotten Voice has shot up 37lb this year in terms of what he was beating last summer but was given a stopper of a rating of 140 in January; he struggled first run back.
But, on good ground and with the freshness gone, he showed his liking for a flat-track speed test by winning at Kempton. Aintree will suit and he’s almost certainly still improving.
Swerving Cheltenham leaves him fresh for this, whereas My Tent Or Yours lost out on a tough battle with Champagne Fever for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in different conditions.
We know – and it was confirmed yesterday – that some horses don’t get over Cheltenham, and some need time, certainly more than three weeks. So I won’t be backing My Tent Or Yours at odds on.
With offers in the orange adding up to only 101% total probability this morning, I could get 5.3 Forgotten Voice. You have to ask two questions: are there enough negatives to lay My Tent Or Yours? Answer: no, he could win it, even on an off-day, if Forgotten Voice isn’t that good.
But, secondly, would a My Tent Or Yours be badly off-colour after Cheltenham enough times to bet 5.3 that you’ll win money on his principal rival over a period? Answer: yes.
2.30 Aintree (Mildmay Novices’ Chase) Winners like Silviniaco Conti and Burton Port – one for Nicholls, one for Henderson, which has been the trend for years now – have won this off 152 or 154.
Dynaste (157) has Rocky Creek (152) and the bottom pair, both on 151, chasing hard. Dynaste’s life of ease against modest opposition came to an end at Cheltenham and, in Rocky Creek, you have another flat-track horse who missed that festival for this one.
Dynaste is actually down in the ratings from a hyped 161. Rocky Creek is up from 149 after beating Houblon Des Obeaux by just under two lengths at Ascot in February. Thereby hangs a tale.
On a line through ‘Houblon’ and Court In Motion, Dynaste is a 5lb better horse than Rocky Creek, confirming that the handicapper’s view does not allow for the ease with which Dynaste beat Court In Motion.
The difference in offers of 3.0 Dynaste and 3.75 Rocky Creek is not what the form book says. But the snag this time is that both horses have underperformed on a sound surface; both trainers are worried about the going. I’ll just watch.
3.05 Aintree (Melling Chase) Giants of 2m and 2m 4f, like Moscow Flyer, Voy Por Ustedes, Master Minded and Albertas Run have won this in the last decade but only one of those winners was as young as seven.
Sprinter Sacre is the young pretender here and Finian’s Rainbow came on to take this last year after winning the Champion Chase (he hasn’t looked the same horse since the demands of that double).
Flemenstar proved against Sir Des Champs at Leopardstown that he was vulnerable at 3m, as if proof were still needed, and he drops back to the trip which saw him hand out a five-lengths defeat to Sir Des Champs at Punchestown.
The final verdict of seven lengths against him doesn’t tell it all regarding Sir Des Champs’ Gold Cup effort; he simply found a tougher opponent up the hill finish.
That says that Flemenstar, unbeaten in seven races up to last December, is very nearly the superstar they thought he was, though he shares a 170 rating with Cue Card, who beat yesterday’s hero, First Lieutenant, in the Ryanair.
Conclusion: this is a better test for Sprinter Sacre over this extra distance than was the Champion Chase, when he scared off most of the valid opposition.
I banker napped him then because the field was not inadequate. If he beats an improved Cue Card (yes, I think he’s got better), a star in his element here, Flemenstar, and last year’s winner Finian’s Rainbow, he will indeed be some horse!
But there is a 101% ‘book’ in the orange, in which Flemenstar is an incredible 9.6. Betting is not about whether you look foolish or not betting against a champion but whether you will win money doing so in the long run. I again stress ‘in the long run’.
You’re reading a man who once laid Frankel (for the same reason) and, until Sprinter Sacre ‘does a Frankel’, and dismisses company like today’s, I will lay him.
At today’s offers, if the favourite duly obliges, I lose only six points in total, laying Sprinter Sacre at 1.37 and backing Flemenstar at 9.6 to win 20. How bad is that? It’s just a normal stake on one horse ‘down the pan’ on a dross day at Southwell!
3.40 Aintree (Topham Chase) I’ve never seen so much stuffing knocked out of the National fences as did the Foxhunter field yesterday; one or two of them burst like a bag of green cottonwool.
Yet the Grand National critics will get their teeth into the race return which showed that 10 out of 24 failed to complete, and that it was Bechers, The Chair and the Canal Turn which took their immediate toll or prompted a rider to pull up.
It’s also a long time since I’ve seen a 1-2-3 of 100-1, 33-1 and 40-1, so we have to be prepared for a similar result in the Topham. Because of the National fences. Because of the drying ground.
Even so, we must start with those who’ve jumped around in this before: Chance Du Roy, Gonebeyondrecall and Fistral Beach have all finished in the frame.
But the stats say that eight times in the last 10 years, the winner has carried 10st 5lb or less, aged nine to 11 seven times out of nine.
I’m intrigued by the 47.0 on BETDAQ about Gus Macrae, a Listed winner from the yard of burgeoning trainer Rebecca Curtis and whose jockey, Tom O’Brien, is ona hat-trick in this race.
Jamsie Hall, a little less adventurous at 16.0, was fourth in the Kerry National and fourth to a Grade-3 winning mare at Cheltenham. Davy Condon is a bonus and ‘Jamsie’ will love the ground.
Ruby Walsh thinks There’s No Panic is best handicapped of the Ditcheat team and best suited to the conditons. Bryan Cooper will give Last Time d’Albain the ride of his life, even if the ground is against him.
But my first choice, for a trainer who’s won this four times in six years, is Gullible Gordon (13.5), who was leading at this distance in the Becher Chase in December.
4.15 Aintree (Sefton Novices’ Hurdle) You are set the same question again and again: do you back a hot-pot Cheltenham hero on a different track in different ground on a different day?
Answer as before, generally speaking: you need a price to back him; you need odds on to lay him. With At Fishers Cross, you have neither.
What you do have (again and again) is a fabulous list of offers in the orange, in the sense that they add up to only 102%.
If I keep banging on about this, check it out: yesterday at Chelt nham, the bookies were betting 123, 126 and 128 in three of the races, which means they had around 25% of your hard-earned safe in the bag as soon as you handed over the money.
Master Of The Sea is the value and a nap bet for a place. For a trainer (who doesn’t talk rubbish) to tell you – in the trade paper – that he’s very excited about this horse a few hours before taking on a Cheltenham winner, then 7.2 each way is a very good deal.
4.50 Aintree Funny Star is a future chasing star, with ‘no weight’ in a handicap hurdle. If he’d had a bit more experience, 25.0, saddled by the (ex) champion trainer, with Ruby Walsh on 10st 5lb, would be candy from a kid.
In a race of 9.4 the field, it’s not that crazy. What is crazy in such a race is the 105% total probability in the BETDAQ orange, as I write (bang those drums again). It is punter-friendly in the extreme.
Seven times out of nine, horses aged six and seven win this. Nine times out of 10, a weight of 11st 1lb is the most carried.
Mister Eckhart stands out of that group but, against all the stats, I’m also backing Khyber Kim (19.5). Nicky Henderson has performed miracles with old-timers before now and this Grade-1 CD winner got within about four lengths of Zarkandar at Wincanton.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.6pts win FORGOTTEN VOICE (2.00 Aintree)
LAY 10pts SPRINTER SACRE and BET 2.3pts win FLEMENSTAR (3.05 Aintree)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 2.4pts win GULLIBLE GORDON, 2pts win JAMSIE HALL, and 0.6pts win and place GUS MACRAE (3.40 Aintree)
BET 3.2pts win and place (place nap) MASTER OF THE SEA (4.15 Aintree)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 3pts win MISTER ECKHART, 1.6pts win KYBER KIM, 1.25pts win FUNNY STAR (4.50 Aintree)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Gevrey Chambertin (4.15 Aintree)
DAQMAN’S BETS are staked to win 20 points unless stakes are raised to win more in a jackpot bet. Lays are to 10pts. Horses to follow are 10pts win.
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