KNOW THE TIME OF DAY FOR THE FLAT WITH BETDAQ: As the jumps take a back seat until the Grand Nationals of Aintree and Fairyhouse, Daqman spells it out: following the BETDAQ market through the day and through the race is the sure way to winning.
TOMORROW: THE WINTER DERBY: Don’t miss big-race king Daqman on the Winter Derby and Spring Cup at Lingfield plus the pick of the action at Newbury, as he challenges Pricewise.
SUNDAY: THE IRISH LINCOLNSHIRE: Look out at The Curragh for the Irish Lincolnshire and the Johnny Murtagh Lifetime Achievement Handicap.
NEXT WEEK: DAQMAN ON THE LINCOLN: Time for Daqman’s Flat horses to follow, his unique ABC guide to the Lincoln, first big handicap of the English Flat season, and more insight into winning ways on BETDAQ.
THE CHANGING FACE OF A RACE: PLAY SAFE AND KEEP YOUR DAQ UP
Keep your Daq up, and grab the offers as things change. That’s my advice in answer to the questions I get concerning when to feel confident about backing a horse, or whether to lay, using market indicators.
Yesterday’s opening race at Chepstow will serve as a good example, of how a race changes from your opening position and presents new possibilities for a trade to cover or expand your involvement.
My opening position on that race was to take around 4-1 Makadamia, a mare working like a good ‘un at the Pipe Academy, and expected to close.
CHANGE 1
The 7-4 morning favourite Churchtown Love went odds on. That had all the makings of a lay in the circumstances of her being claimed off, as though connections were worried they couldn’t give the 5lb penalty away to 15 others who were in receipt of 7lb. A layer had those 15 running for him.
CHANGE 2
On the other hand, Makadamia was far too easy to back at 5-1, even in the face of the strong support for Churchtown Love to 11-8 on. Shumthing wrong shumwhere. All this seemed to flag ‘turn-up expected’.
CHANGE 3
Churchtown Love threw her jockey at the start and they were called back to the tapes, with Churchtown Love easing only slightly when she had become a definite lay, yet still around 4-5.
Meanwhile, Makadamia came in only half a point, as if to say ‘the favourite may be rubbish but you’ll get nowhere backing me either!’
CHANGE 4
On the other hand, Ginger Fizz had been backed just before the tapes went up and the late money was now well visible at the time of the recall. Nothing else fancied; so take some Fizz and fast!
CHANGE 5
The starter lets them go again and a reluctant Churchtown Love barges her neighbour as the tapes go up. Lay her to win, lay her a place, and lay her once again until the cows come home (she’s one of them).
RESULT
Churchtown Love had used up all her vital finishing energy and was out of the frame, seventh at 5-4 on. Ginger Fizz won. If the form book is to be believed, we could claim we were unlucky with Makadama, who seemed to be cruising two out.
I’m told that the Good Book will say she was fourth, with ‘not much room approaching the last.’ But I’ve marked her down as a bridle horse. She looked good until let down and ‘asked’ then, if anything, found her own trouble, cover for her cowardice.
The market also knew about Noche De Reyes, didn’t it. That’s your problem with moderate horses – you don’t know when they’re having a going day – but clearly the BETDAQ market can put you wise.
TODAY’S RACING: EVEN IF LOOKED BIG AT 8.4 ON BETDAQ THIS MORNING
2.40 Newbury I set my alarm, hoping to lay the 4-1 Racing Post forecast favourite, Deciding Moment. No such luck. He was 8.0 on BETDAQ, more in keeping with his stable’s 10-year run of defeat at Newbury and failure to win any race – Flat or jumps – anywhere for 20 weeks.
The step up in trip, so jumping at a slower pace, might help Royal Guardsman, who is rarely fluent. Shockingtimes also jumps badly and Mic’s Delight hasn’t won for two years.
It all seems to add up to a golden opportunity first time over fences in England, straight into a handicap, for French-chase winner Ziga Boy, who looked a powerful individual when launched over here in a hurdles race.
3.10 Newbury Even If has not been knocked about over 2m or so this season and the step up to 3m should galvanize a son of Kings Theatre (he’s got the likes of Cue Card and Balthazar King) out of a Strong Gale mare who has already thrown a decent stayer or two. I took 8.4 on BETDAQ this morning.
4.10 Lingfield (Ladbrokes Mobile Handicap) This, the quality heat on the opening day of the Winter Derby meeting, fields nine winners of 41 races.
The best track stats on offer are about Forecful Appeal, five out of eight at Lingfield, and with Graham Lee 50% from a select number of rides for Simon Dow, but he seems to be in a class-4 rut off a rating higher than he’s ever won off.
Andrew Balding has saddled three firsts from his last four runners, Mark Johnston is on a winner-a-day average and Richard Hannon’s only starter in the last two weeks scored readily.
Balding’s Purcell had Hannon’s Brownsea Brink behind at Ascot in September but that was on soft ground. Purcell is likely to need the race, but Brownsea Brink, a backend improver who’s won in class 2, and broke his maiden on AW, won first time out last year. Tasty at 7.4 on BETDAQ, as I write.
Chilworth Icon and Heavy Metal are potential cats among these pigeons: both were Group-winning two-year-olds who lost their way at three but reappear gelded.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.5pts win (nap) ZIGA BOY (2.40 Newbury)
BET 2.7pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) EVEN IF (3.10 Newbury)
LAY 10pts FORCEFUL APPEAL and BET 3pts win BROWNSEA BRINK (4.10 Lingfield)
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