BIG-RACE-STATS OFFERS UP TO 26.0 ON BETDAQ: Daqman’s ABC Guide to tomorrow’s Lincoln Handicap gives outstanding chances to huge BETDAQ offers Hi There (26.0), Norse Blues (26.0), Robert The Painter (21.0), One Word More (15.0) and Bronze Angel (13.0), as quoted this morning.
LINCOLN ABC WITH THE X-FACTOR: As you check out the stats from the ABC Guide, bear in mind that the going has changed to soft, and Captain Cat, one of the ante-post favourites, is a non-runner:
A Horse aged under seven in key ratings range of 95-98 (claimers not allowed for).
B Won a race of 14 to 20 runners (8 out of 10)
C Winner or beaten only about a length, or placed in big race, first start in any previous Flat (turf) season (9 out of 10)
D Won or second at Doncaster or Newmarket (9 out of 10)
E Drawn in stalls 9 to 16 (7 out of 9).
X Factor: Early-bird stable or one in fine form.
TOMORROW: 40-WINNER DAQMAN STILL HUNGRY: Look out tomorrow as Daqman, whose 39 big jumps-race hits in the Pricewise challenge were capped by his Irish Lincolnshire win last Saturday, talks you through Doncaster and the Dubai World Cup meeting.
Are Hayley and Megan the punters’ angels? The split for the Spring Mile (3.15) and Lincoln Handicap (3.50) tomorrow gives girl riders a big Doncaster double chance.
Ex-pony-race champion Megan Carberry, cousin of Paul and Nina, takes 7lb off Dream Walker to reduce the grey’s weight to bottom of the pile in the Mile.
And Hayley Turner rides Bronze Angel in the Lincoln for the first time since the combo had to settle for bronze, third in the Britannia, at Royal Ascot in 2012. Here’s what the stats say in my Lincoln ABC:
ABCDX NORSE BLUES
Good-ground winner of the Spring Mile here in 2012 and Thirsk Hunt Cup in early May last season, returning to the Yorkshire track to win the Summer Cup in August.
Well beaten since off today’s higher mark and unlikely to improve at age six but has scored after a long absence. Wins from the front and from behind. Prefers a sound surface.
ABCX HI THERE
The seeming second string for trainer Richard Fahey (see Gabrial’s Kaka) is up 7lb for back-to-back class-2 wins on autumn soft ground and started last season with success on soft. Winner from 7f to 10f.
ABCX ROBERT THE PAINTER
With burgeoning Northern yard, and landed hat-trick (in visors) at a mile in summer of 2013 on firmish surface. Placed on heavy but win form on no worse than easy side of good.
Second in Ripon Rowels when 2lb higher than his Doncaster mark. Outsider for each of three defeats in Dubai this year. First-time hood replaces visors.
ABDX BRONZE ANGEL
Doncaster CD winner on second turf start in 2012 before Britannia third at Royal Ascot (good to soft) under Hayley Turner and beat a huge field for the Cambridgeshire (9f good) that autumn.
Group-3 and Cambridgeshire flops in 2013 off highest mark but now back to within a pound of winning rating. Stable had a winner on Wednesday and is 3-7 (43%) on AW this year.
First-time blinkered and winning rider Hayley back in the saddle. Stable selected of three entries over Boom And Bust and Bronze Appeal. Winning turf form on good ground.
ACDEX ONE WORD MORE
Soft-surface winner as a juvenile, and – after failed Group-race career – was ‘the moral’ at Doncaster (7f GS) in the autumn, beaten only half a length giving 2lb to subsequent 103-rated. Races off 97 for early-bird yard.
ACDE JACKS REVENGE
Winner on firmish ground up to 1m 2f, and successful over a mile at Newmarket on the soft. Placed in big-field handicaps at Goodwood (twice) and York and highest mark now.
ACDX UNSINKABLE
Very lightly raced; won first time in 2012 on heavy and Listed third starting out last Spring. A long-way last in Ladbrokes Handicap at Lingfield on first day of this month and class-5 wins only (albeit one at Doncaster) as a two-year-old.
But trainer is the shrewdest man since Edison patented electricity and some will back him blind. Unsinkable wears a first-time hood.
ACEX GABRIAL’S KAKA
Another from early yard, contested Epsom Derby Trial and Chester’s Dee Stakes last Spring but only steady improvement with just the one small-field success, and, when second in class 2 at York in the autumn, noticeably flashed his tail.
No show off higher mark but needed the run at Lingfield in February and has done well on good, good to soft.
ADEX CONSIGN
Visored since last June (because ‘bone idle though not ungenuine,’ says his trainer). Stayed on strongly at Newmarket, (third, 1m good) and won at Ascot (7f soft). No show off higher mark but needed the run at Lingfield in February.
AE BALTY BOYS
Seems to prefer 7f and a turning track. Not won off current mark and success only in class 4 and 5 on good ground. Stable not impacting on the handicaps as it used to.
AX WHISPERING WARRIOR
Winner from 8-10f, class 4 on turf but class-2 Lincoln Trial winner at Wolverhampton, earning the penalty that gets him into this race. Rest of his profile fails on the stats but has won with give in the ground.
BCDX SWEET LIGHTNING
Won the Lincoln in 2011 off 6lb higher but nine now. However, second in Group-3 since, won first time last season and down a stone since April last year; loves big fields and has won on good and heavy.
BCD LEVITATE
Up 16lb for winning last year’s Lincoln and 8lb higher for another Doncaster success (7f soft) in November. Beat the 2012 Lincoln winner, Brae Hill, in September (Ayr, 1m GS) but 19lb worse off with that one now and 22lb on the wrong side of the third horse home, Robert The Painter.
BCDX TULLIUS
Winner of big-field 1m 1f at Newmarket first time up last season (GS), then won three times over a mile up to Group-3 level and beaten in photo by 2010 Lincoln winner, Penitent, in November (1m, Listed, soft).
Up 17lb in 2013 all told, and now a six-year-old, though ridden first time on Saturday by apprentice find, Oisin Murphy, and stable in tremendous form on AW with nine winners since March 14.
BCD MEZZOTINT
Has raced only on a sound surface, won only at 6f and 7f, and on highest mark. On the plus side, he won at Doncaster last May and was narrowly beaten in this class at Newmarket in September.
BD TRES CORONAS
Soared 20lb last year, despite winning only at Chester (10f, good to soft). Third in John Smith’s at York and in Cambridgeshire (9f GF). Highest mark now and only one winner of the Lincoln older than six since 1997.
BDEX CAPTAIN CAT
Trainer states ‘non-runner’ on soft ground.
BDEX CHOOKIE ROYALE
Plenty of money for this one despite the big weight, which includes penalty for latest Listed win in Ladbrokes Lady Wulfruna Stakes at Wolverhampton.
Ultraconsistent on AW but 31lb higher than for sole win (7f firm) on turf since Doncaster (7f good) in November 2012.
CDEX OFF ART
Landed a hat-trick last Spring for stable in superb form in handicaps on the Flat sustained in NH season with big-race success, including at Cheltenham recently.
Very lightly raced because immature as a juvenile. Has scored at Doncaster (7f GS) and shows ‘a desirable will to win’, quote unquote Racing Post online form. A big horse so, though he’s won on firm, would prefer some cut.
CDX BURANO
Five-race campaign in Dubai, yielding a third over 10f, and this entire’s sole success came there over a mile in early 2012. Seconds at Doncaster and Newmarket.
C SPA’S DANCER
Prefers a right-handed track: Sandown winner three times on soft and good to soft (twice). Placed at Goodwood and The Curragh, which are also clockwise courses.
D OCEAN TEMPEST
Hat-trick winner last backend, two of them at Chester and loves a turning track; 7lb higher now but another fit from five-race stint in Dubai. Would enjoy some rain.
DAQMAN’S BETS TODAY
BET 2pts win SILVER VOGUE (2.10 Newcastle)
BET 12pts win THE BEST DOCTOR (3.00 Lingfield)
BET 12pts win (nap) FOUNDATION MAN (3.55 Wetherby)
BET 2pts win and place LANGLEY VALE (4.05 Lingfield)
BET 3.5pts win LOOKING ON (4.30 Wetherby)
BET 6.5pts win W SIX TIMES (5.25 Newcastle)
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