TON-UP DOUBLE ON THE CARDS: Daqman can’t wait for the weekend! Today he looks forward to having a 100-1 tilt at the layers on Sunday with a big-race double in Ireland.
8.4 BULL’S-EYE GAMBLE TODAY: Today he has a bull’s-eye bet to win half that with one unexposed at the trip at Newbury, what he calls a ‘hidden horse,’ tasty at 8.4 on BETDAQ.
100-1 LINCOLN-NATIONAL PLANS
Another National? I warned you a few weeks back that planners have plotted 19 Nationals a year around these islands, many of them piled up around this time of year. There’s another one on Sunday.
While Naas launches the Flat (turf) with the Irish Lincolnshire, Downpatrick stages the Ulster National, currently with 20 probables, and I will be attempting the double on Daq Multiples.
I’ll be trying to link the Irish Lincoln and Ulster National winners with 100-1 SP my target. If last year’s SP was 103-1 the double, I’m sure BETDAQ can do better this time.
The field has a long handicap of 40lb. That’s from Shadow Catcher (pulled up Thyestes Chase) at the top to eight times Point winner Anseanachai Cliste, languishing on 9st.
Federici, successful for Enda Bolger last year, tries to do the trick again but now saddled by Donald McCain, raiding from Cheshire,.
Topper Thornton, fourth in 2016, now meets Federici 12lb better but Tulsa Jack, who was fifth in receipt of 6lb (Jonathan Moore claimed 5lb), is now set to give his old rival 2lb, unless a claimer is called in again.
Folsom Blue (fourth Irish Grand National, second Leinster National) is second-top weight. Then comes The Crafty Butcher, second in the Graded PP Chase at Leopardstown in December.
Six of the last seven winners have raced off 11st 1lb or lower, which is where we find Gordon Elliott’s Definite Ruby, winner of two mares races in her last three starts. Elliott can also saddle Captain Von Trappe and the disappointing Killer Crow.
Willie Mullins has only The Crafty Butcher. Just the one runner! Is that a tip in itself or evidence that his programmes secretary sometimes falls asleep because of pressure of work on entries!
MIDNIGHT IS A HIDDEN HORSE
3.05 Newbury This is a race for turn-ups, mostly from horses aged five or six suddenly coming to hand. Scooby won for the introduction of a hood last time.
But the one I like is Midnight Glory, a ‘hidden horse’ stepped up in trip. She is related to stayers, going back on the dam’s side to a Gold Cup winner. Could be anything, after only five runs under Rules, and her 8.4 looks very tasty on BETDAQ as I write.
3.40 Newbury (Brown Chamberlin Trophy) I can remember Brown Chamberlin (steady on, Daqman; check whether that was before sliced bread) but there’s not been much memorable about this race in his honour.
In fact, Brown Chamberlin won the 1983 Hennessy and yours truly was ‘on’. Today is very tricky, with all bar the bottom one having won one of his last three starts.
Vinnie Red appears to have bounced last time after winning from a lay-off but, in fact, he lost a shoe and will be suited by today’s return to better ground. Tongue tied now.
Dueling Banjos is the most likely danger if David Bass can time things right. Dueling Banjos tends to idle at the deliverance end (!)
4.00 Lingfield Sennockian Star who had 22 races last year has already been out eight times in 2017 for three wins, lofting him 10lb, two of them over the Lingfield CD. He is joined by stablemate Albareeq, who is up in trip today.
Sylvester Kirk has his eye on the City and Suburban at Epsom in a month’s time for Gawdawpalin, who won over !m 2f of the Derby course last June.
And Ballynanty is earmarked for the marathon at the Easter AW Championships, after running third in the race last year.
The handicapper won’t give Dashing Star a break but Barye is now within a pound of his mark when scoring over CD last January, and is strongly fancied in the morning BETDAQ market.
4.10 Newbury Punters get this right most years (only one winner in the decade bigger than 7-1), perhaps because they stick to the usual suspects: Nicky Henderson and Philip Hobbs have scored two each.
Here they are again with I’m A Game Changer (dual winner for Hobbs and suited by the ground) and Maestro Royal.
Maestro twice went to Cheltenham, the plan being to get him into a handicap at the festival, with course form behind him. But he was beaten both times, albeit in a big field on the last day and earlier as runner-up.
Sandwiched in between on a less severe track he stopped Robinshill, who had just landed three out of four. I took 7.2 this morning on the horse’s home circuit.
SIGNS SEEM GOOD FOR ZODIAC
7.30 Dundalk The track has a 47% strike rate for SP favourites. Not all that exceptional (at the English AW venues today, Lingfield has 43% and Newcastle 51% even!)
But what is striking is that Dundalk’s favourites show a profit of 27 points in non-handicaps for older horses, and returns are particularly good in sprints.
From over my cornflakes, my problem is which horse will be favourite. It was a pretty close run thing this morning between Gordon Lord Byron (3.85), Patrick (4.8), Togoville (4.9) and Sign Of The Zodiac (5.6).
It’s a few days late for Patrick to have his day (!) but he does travel all the way up from Limerick, a 340-miles round trip, always assuming they’ll want to take him home again. Trainer had a winner the other day.
These sprinters win in their turn and Togoville had his moment of glory over this CD in February. Gordon Lord Byron’s last three wins have been over 7f plus and he hasn’t scored over today’s trip since June 2015. Unliklely to get the fast past he needs.
So I’m having my bit on Sign of The Zodiac, whom James Given has travelled over and booked Pat Smullen as if he means business. The four-year-old is trained in Lincolnshire, which is where I came in.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength, except bull’s-eye bet)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50) 6.7pts win MIDNIGHT GLORY (3.05 Newbury)
BET 8pts win VINNIE RED (3.40 Newbury)
BET 8pts win (nap) BARYE (4.00 Lingfield)
BET 3pts win and place MAESTRO ROYAL (4.10 Newbury)
BET 5pts win SIGN OF THE ZODIAC (7.30 Dundalk)
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