DAQMAN GETS A BIT OF A 6-1 WINNER: After his naps hat-trick player, Prospering, just failed to get up by a short-head at Chelmsford last night, Daqman watched his BETDAQ 9.4 about Bit Harsh get reduced by half when another photo-finish was decided as a dead-heat. All a bit harsh but he’ll take it to maintain his winner a day.
WON 6-1 BIT HARSH (Thursday dead-heat from BETDAQ 9.4)
WON 11-10 LOUP DE MAULDE (Wednesday nap)
WON 4-6 BERNARD SPIERPOINT (Tuesday nap)
WEEKEND BIG-RACE PREVIEW 2: After his Tolworth preview yesterday,
here are Daqman’s stats and facts for another key novice hurdle, this one at Naas on Sunday.
STAR RISING IN NAAS THRILLER
⭕ 2.20 Naas, Sunday (2m 4f Lawlors Novice Hurdle) STATS: AGE: 6yo 9-10. TRAINERS: Gordon Elliott 4, Willie Mullins 7. FAVOURITES: 7 in a row.
This race has thrown up two Ballymore winners at Cheltenham in the last three seasons in Envoi Allen (2020) and Bob Olinger (2021) and 10 years back started the long journey of Mouse Morris’s Rule The World which would end 21 races later in the Grand National winners’ enclosure at Aintree.
FORM: It looked a good race which Grangeclare West won by 13 lengths over the CD at Naas in November, with trainer Mullins ‘impressed.’
The same stable could also saddle Gaelic Warrior, runner-up in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham in March.
They were still counting the distance back to the second when Gaelic Warrior was already home and hosed at Tramore in December; they settled for 86 lengths!
American Mike (Gordon Elliott), champion Cheltenham bumper runner-up to Facile Vega, was turned over at odds-on at Navan in the Monksfield Novice Hurdle at Navan in November by Dawn Rising (Joseph O’Brien), significantly aged six.
So Elliott is likely to rely on the Royal Bond runner-up, Irish Point, and the Naas Grade-2 second, Three Card Brag.
Dawn Rising runs in the J P McManus colours, as does Inothewayurthinkin, 2-2 including defeat of Imagine at Gowran Park in November.
Inothewayurthinkin (Gavin Cromwell) was winning over 2m that day but the Walk In The Park colt has a pedigree packed with stamina for Sunday’s trip and beyond.
IMPOSING HENDERSON STRIKE
⭕ 1.30 Ludlow today This is one of 14 Jumps tracks at which Nicky Henderson has a better than 30% strike-rate. Incredible. So why don’t you get in there (‘impose toi’) punters!
Henderson is currently striking at 20% (still a rate others wish they had). He has the J P McManus buy, Impose Toi, making his English debut in this after 2-2 on soft ground on provincial tracks in France.
It’s the kind of situation where you don’t look at the opposition. The only ‘opposition’ is if Impose Toi isn’t fit and ready.
With Henderson, you can usually raise the bar on that one way past 90%. And you could get better than even money (2.22) on BETDAQ this morning.
⭕ 2.00 Ludlow Many trainers run their horses locally to get them fit. Exceptions are Paul Nicholls (at Wincanton), the Easterbys (at York) and Venetia Williams in her home area.
Venetia, who had a winner at Ffos Las yesterday to prove my point, has Fire Dancer well handicapped here as a £195,000 cast-off from Guillaume Macaire.
In fact, Fire Dancer (BETDAQ 2.76)has similar claims to Impose Toi and, when a situation is repeated, I like to bet one will win.
On the same theme, I shall back Didero Vallis, another Venetia runner, in the handicap chase here at 3 pm.
HEAD’S UP FOR A 22.0 WINNER
⭕ 3.00 Ludlow At the beginning of the week, I warned you that Henry Daly was on 3-5, with his three winners all good odds, none of them favourite. He’s struck from Ludlow to Cheltenham and back again, I said.
Well, here’s the man with the Daly winners right back at Ludlow with another ‘not favourite’. In fact, at age 12, Head To The Stars is sure to be a decent offer.
Henry is on 32131102 since New Year’s Eve and Head To The Stars’ chance is better appreciated if you look at his overall form in recent seasons: after a break, form figures 00 then WON 8-1; PU after a break then WON 13-2; 3rd after a break, then WON 9-1.
His Ludlow form in the last two years is 1123 (including a win in the mud) and he’s poised after a first run back at 25-1 to perform his old trick of coming good the very next race.
Dangers are every other horse in the race but two of them pulled up the last day; two of them unseated. Head To The Stars is rated only a pound behind the top horse, and that one is also 12.
His old nemesis is Didero Vallis, beaten three lengths giving 11lb to Head To The Stars when they were one-two at Ludlow 13 months ago. Didero Vallis is in receipt of 9lb today, so he is also a huge price on BETDAQ on that evidence.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 5.7 Didero Vallis, 22.0 Head To The Stars
PLAY 37.0 OFFER IN POOR RACE
⭕ 5.45 Southwell Every one of these is opposable in a poor race, so I’m taking another tilt at the layers at 37.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Karl Burke was ‘very pleased’ with Sweet Fortune when she won on AW in the summer. That’’s an understatement; I’m amazed she could score at a mile.
Sweet Fortune is half-sister to winners up to 1m 4f and her dam was a 2m 4f hurdles winner, half-sister to a 1m 6f player.
Today’s favourites, Haaland and Aesthetic, were winner and fourth only four days ago, and one or both will still be feeling it.
Haaland won from the front that day, and has to do it all again with a penalty and two furlongs further to hang on. Aesthetic was disappointing (again), as has been Gilded Moon all her life.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Ludlow (win 10, nap)
BET 8.5pts win IMPOSE TOI
2.00 Ludlow (win 10)
BET 5.5pts win FIRE DANCER
3.00 Ludlow (win 21, win 12)
BET 1pt win HEAD TO THE STARS
BET 2.5pts win DIDERO VALLIS
5.45 Southwell (win 21)
BET 0.6pts win SWEET FORTUNE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
