IT’S A HAT-TRICK STILL STANDING: Daqman landed three winners from three bets still standing yesterday. The losers were both unlucky: banker Hidden Cyclone (‘result in the balance when fell last’ Racing Post) and Home Run (‘moving well when clipping heels two out’). The winners were:
WON 7-2 SMILES FOR MILES
WON 5-2 PRESSIES GIRL
WON 5-4 IT’S A CLOSE CALL
FIVE DAYS PROFIT OUT OF EIGHT: The three winners gave him 21 points profit on the day, his fifth winning day out of eight. The sequence is: last Thursday (27 points profit), Friday (38), Saturday (19), Monday (19), Thursday (21).
TURBAN BANKER TO PUT NEW BET AHEAD
1.20 Haydock Turban squeezes into my Money Box Banker rules, price-wise this morning. Always good when fresh and a rare visitor to Haydock for Willie Mullins, who tempts Ruby Walsh over for the ride.
Otherwise, the string of novice and graduation small-field events looks like one of those days: the obvious wins, or one or more of the favourites fall down.
Following those favourites falls down in itself because you find yourself on four Paul Nicholls’ horses, so must bet stop-at-a-winner (expensive) or back them in multiples (one loser reduces your overall return considerably). Nicholls’ Haydock party is a bit of a punting pooper.
LONGSDON HAS STABLE QUAY TO ASCOT
1.00 Ascot The two winning stables in this race, launched in 2012, Nicky Henderson (saddles Saint Charles) and Oliver Sherwood (It’s A Sting), take each other on here.
But Henderson’s is a four-year-old – half a dozen of that age have tried and failed in this, no nearer than third – and Point winner Saint Charles was remote in his bumper.
Not much encouragement in his breeding (Manduro’s best is Baradari) and Saint Charles was easy to back on BETDAQ this morning, around 5.0.
The one they came for, early mouse, was the Hobbs. Peter Thomas has made a bold attempt to wipe the egg off his face in today’s trade paper, after his trainers’-title article omitted the current leader! Yes, that man Hobbs, the Minehead magician.
Hobbs’ morning favourite here, Alisier d’Irlande, an Irish Point winner, ‘does everything well at home,’ says our Somerset Merlin. Surprise then, to see him hooded for his Rules debut, though the hoodies are not necessarily wayward teenagers in this racing game.
The Sherwood, It’s A Sting, ran hooded in his bumpers but they were left off for an undistinguised hurdles debut. Modest family (same sire as the expensive Scorpiancer) needed around 3m.
Arpege D’Alene, on the other hand, is a giant half-brother to Hennessy winner, Triolo d’Alene, and is the one from this race for the future (try handicap chases in 2016).
I had my early-pozzi pound on Heated Debate, a Kayf Tara stayer who should be suited by the track but will need a solid pace to get into a good, galloping rhythm.
1.30 Ascot The hood is out again. Boondooma wears one first time, after racing too keenly at Chepstow. It was all right there in a modest contest but, stepped up to Graded level, he used himself up.
The Skyfarmer has his training problems and may need this, while Oliver Sherwood is hoping that his stable star of 2012, Puffin Billy – thought then to be a Champion Hurdle prospect – can bounce back over fences.
Charlie Longsdon is talking star quality about Killlala Quay, fourth in the Neptune novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival and jumping fences well a home.
When I find myself on two separate horses in different races for a trainer who is not in the top rank but capable, I tend to think: yeh, maybe one winner, but two? Unlikely.
So I’m backing the Longsdon pair, Heated Debate (1.00 to win 20 points) and, if lose, stakes on Killala Quay which will also win 20, cover the Heated Debate bet and allow for a small double, just in case the miracle happens.
2.05 Ascot If we want a bet here, early mouse, we have to choose between two short shots, so little in the way of trade possibilities, not much left to pick up on later in the day.
Nicky Henderson is 113 in recent renewals of this race, including two short-odds favourites, and Clondaw Banker has 5lb with which to reverse a long three lengths defeat by Jolly’s Cracked It over CD on the first day of the month.
This morning’s ‘Jolly’ was value for more than the winning margin, sayeth the Post. Yes, but Clondaw Banker needed softer ground and his hurdling will improve, quoth Messrs Henderson and Geraghty. Moving on…
2.40 Ascot Venetia Williams won this last year with Niceonefrankie and she’s got him back to dead on the same mark today. It’s also ‘same again’ in that the race was his first run last season.
The dark lady of racing has been piling up reappearance-run winners this autumn-winter, with another one yesterday in the gambled-on Richmond.
The stats point to Al Alfa (Hobbs) as the only seven-year-old in a race that his age group has won five times in a row. But what trip this ‘Alfa’ male needs is still an enigma to his trainer.
3.15 Ascot This is a tricky one. Ardkilly Witness, early-mouse favourite Ballinvarig and Imperial Circus all do far better on a right-handed track like today’s.
One of Venetia Williams’ first-run-back successes came with Howard’s Legacy, though there’s nothing in his CV to suggest that he can repeat that under a penalty.
Back to Charlie Longsdon with Grandad’s Horse but every shower of rain turns the ground against him, and he’s likely to be put away until the Spring.
Josie’s Orders won a Point and, though unfancied for his first chase under Rules earlier this month, was going all right until hampered by a faller. Could win this by default, with Geraghty in overdrive this season.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each horse backed to win 20 points, except the fixed-stake banker)
BET 3pts win HEATED DEBATE (1.00 Ascot), if lose 12pts win KILLALA QUAY (1.30 Ascot) and 1pt win double the two
MONEY-BOX BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) TURBAN (1.20 Haydock) and 2pts win DAQ MULTIPLES double the same one with JOSIES ORDERS (3.15 Ascot)
BET 10pts win NICEONEFRANKIE (2.40 Ascot)
BET 4pts win JOSIES ORDERS (3.15 Ascot)
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