BACK-TO-BACK NAPS FOR DAQMAN: Daqman yesterday landed back-to-back naps with a banker bet at Thurles on Westerner Lady (WON 4-6) following Wicked Willy (WON 11-10) on Wednesday. His best bet at Musselburgh today was 5.2 on BETDAQ this morning.
CHELTENHAM: SEE HOW THEY WON: In Daqman’s final assessment for Cheltenham this week, he looks at the Stayers’ Hurdle (more festival races next week). But first he finds that the Irish Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle will be even more meaningful this year.
IRISH SIZING UP THE GOLD
Vital Leopardstown double. The Irish championship races – Champion Hurdle (January 29) and Gold Cup (February 12) – will have a huge bearing on Cheltenham this year.
The hurdles championship double was completed by both Istabraq and Hurricane Fly. Now last year’s Leopardstown winner, Faugheen, will go for a repeat there before attempting to regain the Cheltenham crown he won in 2015.
The Irish Gold Cup hasn’t had a ‘result’ in the Cheltenham version since Imperial Call (1996) but, with Thistlecrack so dominant for March, we can expect a strong field for two reasons.
Leopardstown will be the ultimate gold for all intending to swerve Thistlecrack and, put another way, it will be the furnace which could forge a genuine challenger for Cheltenham.
Sizing John, still only seven, and second to Douvan over Christmas on his first start for Jessica Harrington, just has to take the Irish Gold Cup route after winning the Kinloch Brae at Thurles yesterday.
At the other end of the age scale, Empire Of Dirt, a late developer – 13 chases though now 10 years old – has shot 27lb up the ratings since this time last year.
His Gordon Elliott stablemates, Road To Riches and Don Poli, are also entered, and Jonjo O’Neill targets the race with More Of That and Minella Rocco.
Zabana will try to wipe out a moderate run, seventh in the Lexus, in which Don Poli was second and Djakadam third, with More Of That and Road To Riches behind. So it’s redemption day at Leopardstown.
THE WORLD OF DIFFERENCE..
Online Stayers’ (World) Hurdle trends are rubbish. The bookies’ ‘facts’ and figures tell you that 80% of winners had raced at the Cheltenham Festival the year before.
Of course, sequence winners like Inglis Drever and Big Buck’s had obviously done so but, in the last four years, only Cole Harden did; Thistlecrack, More Of That and Solwhit did not. I make that a recent 75% ‘no way’! And recent trends far outweigh a long-term view.
NEGATIVE: No five-year-old has won it since 1951; no horse of a double-figure age since 1986. Only if you’ve won it before are you likely to take the prize over the age of seven (just 2-20 have broken that rule).
Black marks for Clondaw Warrior (10), Annie Power (9), Faugheen (9), Jezki (9), Uknowhatimeanharry (9), Shaneshill (8), Vroum Vroum Mag (8).
POSITIVE: Sequence horses this year could be More Of That and Cole Harden, since both are previous winners.
CAREER: You need a 50% career strike rate over hurdles: Faugheen (11-12), Jezki (11-18), More Of That (5-6), Vroum Vroum Mag (6-8), Nichols Canyon (8-15), Ballyoptic (4-7).
KEY RACES: The Cleeve Hurdle (won by Thistlecrack, more likely to go for the Gold Cup) and the Long Walk (Uknowhatimeanharry) are the best guides.
RATINGS: The young pretenders Ballyoptic (162) and Nichols Canyon (160) are behind Faugheen (176), Jezki (167) and Uknowhatimeanharry (167) but there may be defections to other races.
Verdict: Cole Harden has crashed 12lb in the ratings and More Of That has been chasing (and breaking blood-vessels) so I can’t see a repeater. Young pretenders Ballyoptic and Nichols Canyon were both 12.5 on BETDAQ when I checked out the orange ante-post market.
NEXT WEEK I shall look at the Champion Chase which could be stirred up by tomorrow’s usually-informative trial, the Clarence House at Ascot, if only the track passes inspection. The frost seems to have got in deep.
JOIN A 22.0 BETDAQ PUNT
CHEPSTOW Robinsfirth (2.10) is a glass horse and, though he got it all together at Exeter on New Year’s Day, it may be a warning flag that Colin Tizzard is swerving trials day at Cheltenham at the end of the month, which was the original target.
J P McManus has one runner at each meeting today: Musselburgh Dundalk and here at Chepstow with Join The Clan in this one.
Join The Clan has been to both the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals over hurdles for the last two years. He’s had four chases without winning but has slipped down the handicap and is eligible for novices’ company today: 22.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
Flintham, closely related to both Coneygree and Carruthers but absent more than 300 days,, also went to the Cheltenham Festival last March and is a higher level than this over hurdles. But he flopped in his first chase (back in 2015) and he’s never performed well without a prep run.
Morito Du Berlais jumped slowly in his first chase, and Battle Of Shiloh gives weight all round but he’s done nothing wrong in points, hurdles and chases, and is the most likely winner.
TO THE VICTOR THE GLORY
MUSSELBURGH Tom George, who has a (3-6) 50% strike rate with hurdlers at Musselburgh, sends up J P McManus’s Hereford winner, Stamp Your Feet (2.25).
His sire, Galileo, has hit the heights only with Celestial Halo over jumps but Stamp Your Feet looks well handicapped at this level and, though Project Bluebook won a class 2 over today’s CD on New Year’s Day, it was a weak race; second and third have won only in class 4 and 5.
The only other youngsters in the field are Caius Marcius, also pegged down in class 4, and front-runner Eyes Of A Tiger, who should set it up for Stamp Your Feet, who came with a withering late run at Hereford.
The handicap chase (3.00) is also packed with older horses; recent results have shown that you can’t write them off altogether but they are unlikely to have retained the speed required on good ground.
Richard Johnson has seven rides here today, and looks capable of improving the seven-year-old Fields Of Glory for Welsh raider Tim Vaughan: 5.2 this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 20 points at BETDAQ offers)
BACK 5.5pts win BATTLE OF SHILOH, and 1pt win and place JOIN THE CLAN (2.10 Chepstow)
BACK 5pts win STAMP YOUR FEET (2.25 Musselburgh)
BACK 5pts win (nap) FIELDS OF GLORY (3.00 Musselburgh)
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