ANOTHER 16-1 ANTE-POST BET FOR EARLY-BIRD’S LAUNCH: Daqman checks out the Lincoln Handicap markets and nominates his first Early Bird of the Flat Season at 16-1 at the same time that his 17.0 BETDAQ ante-post Grand National bet is down to 4-1 with most bookmakers, though still around 9-2 on BETDAQ.
CLUE TO FOUR-YEAR-OLDS’ TITLE RACE AT MUSSELBURGH: Daqman’s pick on finals day at Musselburgh is one which qualified for the seniors’ two-mile title but drops back to a handicap among the four-year-olds. Napped at 4.5 on BETDAQ.
16-1 THE LINCOLN EARLY BIRD
⚠️ HEADS UP: Ante-post update. Ascension is the first Daqman Early Bird of Flat (turf) 2021, which means ‘potential improver likely to make an early impact’.
Ascension is with a very capable trainer; wins after a break; 2-2 after gelding, excluding heavy ground; and has the speed to take a sprint but bred to win an Ebor down the dam’s side.
Trainer Roger Varian knows more than I do. He may have the Victoria Cup in mind and the grey’s two 7f wins suggest that is the route.
But, at four, he might be capable of much longer distances according to his pedigree, certainly of a Doncaster mile.
How highly is the grey regarded? Well, he’s been favourite for EIGHT of his last nine starts, whatever the trip from 6f to a mile.
He is 2-3 under Andrea Atzeni, whose fourth race back this will be. Roger Varian is 1-1 in the last fortnight, with returns this year of 11-38 rising to 57% (4-7) for four-year-olds and upwards.
⚠️ HEADS UP: ASCENSION Lincoln Handicap: 16-1 with bookmakers, and I am asking BETDAQ layers for 17.0 and 18.0.
⚠️ HEADS UP: CLOTH CAP Grand National: 17.0 taken on BETDAQ; now 4-1 with bookmakers; still 5.6 on BETDAQ this morning.
*More Early Birds next week.
COVE COULD BE VALUE AT 7.5
⭕ 1.30 Newbury (Brown Chamberlin Trophy) Nicky Henderson (Corrany) and Rebecca Curtis (Minella Bobo) have each won this twice in the decade.
Both their runners have improved for cheekpieces but both beat maidens over fences the last day.
Corrany (5.0 offers) has never won higher than Class 4 and a 10lb hit for scoring at Huntingdon might be a stopper, but there’s very open BETDAQ betting so you can play the market.
The grey Minella Bobo was back in business the last day but is also up in the weights and has never produced good form back to back, very in and out.
A 10lb rise stopped Jersey Bean’s hat-trick bid before Christmas. He has won after a break before but has to pick up the thread of improvement.
The 7.5 BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE offer Ocean Cove improved for a wind op, bossing the dual winner, Gleno (withdrawn today) at Doncaster (Minella Encore fifth). He’s had his wind tweaked again since.
BOY HAS WON A MAN’S RACE
⭕ 2.30 Musselburgh In the Edinburgh version of the Triumph Hurdle, Nicky Henderson’s raider, Progressive has drifted like a lonely dog on a raft, out to 9.8 on BETDAQ this morning.
Magna Moralia, first and second in the Kelso qualifier for this, are brought together now by the adjustments of the handicapper.
Though he’s top weight, Breguet Boy (4.5 taken) is a strong candidate; in the frame four times in a row at Musselburgh, 1231, he has his ground today.
On the last day, he won the qualifier for the Two-Mile Hurdle Series Final (3.05 today) but misses that in favour of this much-easier four-year-olds-only event.
NO TROUBLE GETTING A PLACE
⭕ 2.40 Newbury The star stables of Paul Nicholls (Saint De Reve) and Colin Tizzard (Premiumaccess) are badly out of form, with combined strike rates of 5-84.
And maybe cheekpieces can work again for He’s No Trouble, who found a new lease of life with their first-time fitting, jumping aggressively round Wetherby, not the easiest of tracks.
Saint De Reve is quirky and needs further on this surface but Premiumaccess could also improve for cheekpieces.
He’s No Trouble is the win-and-place bet of the day at 8.4 on BETDAQ this morning behind wobbly 5.0 favourite Premumaccess.
DAQMAN’S BETS
*Staked to break even with one return from four
1.30 Newbury (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win CORRANY
BET 1.25pts win OCEAN COVE
2.30 Musselburgh (win 10 nap)
BET 3pts win BREGUET BOY
2.40 Newbury (win 12, win 8 place)
BET 1.6pts win and 4pts place HE’S NO TROUBLE
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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