DAQMAN LAUNCHES POT OF GOLD: Launched today and starting tomorrow.. Daqman’s money-spinner, the triple-bonus bet, Pot Of Gold. It’s a value booster, an add-on to his existing bets by cashing in on big prices, bad mistakes by the layers and the intrinsic value of the BETDAQ market.
McMANUS YOUR MAN AT NEWBURY: Daqman goes for a banker today as he explores a tricky card at Newbury, and finds that the man to be with is J P McManus, who also has a 12.0 outsider that is one to follow on drying ground.
TOMORROW: MAKE A DATE WITH THE LINCOLN WINNER: Look out tomorrow for his final verdict on the Lincoln Handicap (check out his ABC guide in the Archive for yesterday) and analysis of all that’s best, Flat and National Hunt. Daqman says today: ‘ There’s a standout in the Lincoln that could rate a Pot Of Gold staking.’
TRIPLE VALUE IN THE BETDAQ POT OF GOLD
All change! The next gravy train stopping at Doncaster for the Lincoln, Aintree for the Grand National, and Epsom for the Derby and the Oaks leaves tomorrow on the BETDAQ betting platform. Full steam ahead for value in the best of the betting season between now and Royal Ascot.
And today I’m introducing the triple-bonus value bet, the Pot Of Gold, in which we deliberately make a bonus-growth investment when we see that the layers are in error. This is what you do.
Find a standout horse that you think should be much shorter than the offers you see. Assess the horse’s price. Then back it to your profit target not at the offer but at the price you think it should be. I’ll explain again.
I say ‘again’ because we’ve talked about this -bonus method before, and tried it out a couple of times. Now it will become part of the betting plan for 2016.
I didn’t introduce it at Cheltenham because that meeting is about short-odds bankers and ante-post errors. But now is the time to create your own steamer and stoke the value engine that is implicit in BETDAQ.
Why implicit? Because, particularly in the better-quality races, you will be able to trade at an overround way below the bookmakers.
For example just check out again these records that we kept at Cheltenham (Daqman Archive March 16), showing the first-day take-out, race by race, by bookmakers (137% was the worst) alongside a level playing-field, or nearly so, on BETDAQ, where the markets paid 100 for around 102 invested; not the 100 for 137 (SP) you had to stake with the big firms!
BETDAQ: 100, 100, 103, 101, 103, 102, 103
TOTAL SP: 118, 115, 127, 119, 125, 126, 137
You know for certain you are in a punter-friendly value zone, marked: everyone can win! BETDAQ actually wants people to win money!
Now the Pot Of Gold bet is designed to win more if you are right about that standout you spotted at that ridiculously big price in that punter-friendly environment.
If you want to win 100 points (our Ton-Up bet), and the horse you think has a 5-1 chance is offered at 11.0, your first thought is that you can reduce your stake from 20 points (20 x 5 = 100) to 10 points (10 x 11.0 = 100).
But, if you keep your original stake at the value offer (20 x 10) you will actually double your return! In value terms, you will cash in three times: triple value, because..
1) The offer is within a value ‘book’, the low-overround BETDAQ orange.
2) The offer is bigger than you think it should be
3) The stake you originally intended will give you a bonus on top of the target return, even to the extent of doubling your money, as in the example.
Check out the Daqman Library to see our success story so far. Then consider winning more than ever this season by topping up your stakes in these categories:
ANTE-POST: Choose the right time for ante-post, when you can see that there is a mistake, as we spotted when it was obvious that Vroom Vroom Mag (6.0 for us about a 6-4 on favourite) was going to be gifted the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham.
Ignore the stories and adverts trying to pull you into punting on the Classics in advance of a single trial and before you even know the runners.
TON-UP bets: staked to win 100 points
BULL’S-EYE bets: staked to win 50 points
BANKERS: staked 20 points at SP, but GOLD 30 points and DIAMOND 40.
LAYS: Backing a horse to lose when there are factors against it or it is simply too short for its probable chance of winning
DOUBLE WHAMMYS: Back and lay in the same race, where the stakes on the lay usually cover the win bet
TRIPLE WHAMMYS: Back and lay plus a place bet in the same race
* Sequences: Don’t forget that Daqman assesses the value of a bet in terms of how many such bets he can land over a period of time, and what percentage of winners is worthwhile. So he aims for 70-80% bankers and lays, and he targets Pricewise in the trade paper for a sequence of feature-race wins that are more profitable than his.
HELL’S KITCHEN CAN SERVE UP A BANKER
1.50 Newbury This is about a potentially brilliant novice giving weight to a potentially brilliant novice giving weight to a dark horse.
The 23-lengths Wincanton winner, Duelling Banjos, gives 7lb to the Harry Fry hot-pot Hell’s Kitchen and another 7lb below them is ‘could be anything’ Granit, trained by Nicky Henderson.
The handicapper has rated Hell’s Kitchen 139 and the more exposed Duelling Banjos 137 so, at the weights, Kitchen scales in 9lb clear (with a plus for progressive).
Harry Fry has a 67% strike rate in races like this at Newbury and is 38% teamed up with Barry Geraghty.
Duelling Banjos’ Kempton win holds up well but his Wincanton runner-up has been beaten a total of 115 lengths in the outings immediately before and after that race!
So, as the boys in Deliverance might have said, getting deeper and deeper in trouble down in Georgia, Duelling Banjos’ 23-lengths Wincanton win means diddly squat.
2.25 Newbury This is as tricky a handicap as you’ll see: four of them rated between 122 and 124, and only four wins shared out among them in the last year.
The drying ground may not suit Astigo and Kings Cross. Hindon Road is a chase maiden and Bob Tucker has been unable to hack it outside novice company.
Neil Mulholland runs two. If we back one, we have to back both, and that’s another BETDAQ benefit: the low overround allows a bit of dutching.
But I think these one-paced types need the drive of a Richard Johnson: his mount, Bincombe, has won on the course and has been freshened up.
3.00 Newbury Four of these are maidens and, if you add the two chase-only winners, you have six runners out of nine that have never won a hurdle race!
And I’m not going to be putting my Monetary Fund on a 10-year-old whose course form is 2030.
Someone tell Mick Easterby that petrol’s rationed! I can’t remember a Sherriff Hutton horse setting foot on Newbury turf nor an Easterby horse running round here since Sea Pigeon.
So I’m compelled to punt Roycano, a similar situation to Ganbei at Kelso recently when Mick and the claimer Harry Bannister also won with a good Points performer.
3.35 Newbury (Brown Chamberlin Trophy) Another tricky one, in which Paul Nicholls hopes that a drop on class and first-time blinkers will lift Katgary. It all reads a bit desperate.
Katgary, Vintage Vinnie and Viva Steve were Cheltenham Festival flops. Viva Steve is a good jumper and galloper who should be suited to the course but trainer Mick Channon, though he’s bang in form, has a poor record here, and his flurry of winners is on AW.
I shall chance that the ground has dried out enough for Dreamsoftheatre, who has been given a three-month holiday, is worth following again now. The 12.0 for him on BETDAQ this morning underlines the worry about the ground.
But he’s a class-2 senior-handicap winner still qualified for this class-3 novices of stale one-paced types. He’ll be winning again soon (Aintree?), if not today.
His owner, J P McManus, who should already have had a winner with Hell’s Kitchen, had five at the Fairyhouse Easter Festival and his luck is in. Well, he needs the money.
4.10 Newbury Gala Ball keeps rolling on but, again, a fresh horse could be his undoing. Close Touch (6.0 on BETDAQ as I write) goes well fresh, has aimed very high in the past and is 3-4 at this game.
Harry Whittington (Molasses) has a fine strike rate at Newbury but in chases not hurdles. But this is another to keep an eye on for the future, also back from a long break.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points at BETDAQ offers taken, except the banker, settled at SP)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) HELL’S KITCHEN (1.50 Newbury)
BET 5.8pts win BINCOMBE (2.25 Newbury)
BET 8pts win ROYCANO (3.00 Newbury)
BET 1.75pts win and place DREAMSOFTHEATRE (3.35 Newbury)
BET 4pts win CLOSE TOUCH (4.10 Newbury)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 2pt win doubles and 1pt win treble HELL’S KITCHEN (1.50 Newbury), ROYCANO (3.00 Newbury) and CLOSE TOUCH (4.10 Newbury)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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