13-2 WIN IN THE SWIM WITH SHARK: Daqman pounced on one of the Irish raiders, ‘Shark’ Hanlon’s Adarenna (WON 13-2) at Towcester, to launch his Thursday bets, and that kept him in profit throughout the day.
387 VALUE HITS OVER THREE YEARS: Today Daqman resumes his value-tipping challenge to Pricewise, with the score 2-1 this Jumps season and 387-157 overall since the challenge began three years ago today. They clash in the 2.10 and 2.45 Newbury, after Daqman opens with a banker (current score 6 out of 7).
JENKINS BANKER FOR DAQMAN COOKIES
12.30 Newbury Nicky Henderson has won this four times in seven years and my Fortune Cookie fans will want him to go in again via Jenkins. When I put this one in the list of horses to follow, I wrote:
‘Impressive nine-lengths winner of a Newbury bumper before the ‘moral’ when, giving weight, beaten only a half a length in the 16-runner champion bumper at Punchestown in April.’
Nicky has been in devastating form – currently 131101101334330113 – with six novice successes since November 18, including a six-timer for Altior which put him in the Cheltenham books not for novice chases but to the fore in Champion Hurdle betting.
We could easily see Jenkins getting Supreme Novices’ quotes if, as expected, he trots up here. I’m making him a banker to add to the six out of seven scored so far this season.
1.05 Newbury (Fulke Walwyn Trophy) Alan King farms this one (two wins in five seasons, but in fact with form figures 113 in the race).
All success – three wins from eight starts – for Kingy’s Winner Massagot (9.6 on BETDAQ this morning) have been followed by almighty flops, so clearly one to catch fresh.
Sirabad is a bit headstrong so it suited him to steal a race at home (at Wincanton) from the front but he beat class-4 animals that day and needs to raise his game.
Top rated, 8lb above Winner Massagot and Sirabad, is the dual October winner Double W’s but giving that 8lb away will be a hard task, not least against another hat-trick seeker, Valseur Du Granval, who has also improved rapidly in recent weeks.
But, if Jonjo O’Neill had been chowing better form, I’d go in big for Suit Yourself (33.0). By Flemensfirth out of an Oscar mare, his pedigree goes back to Black Jack Ketchum, and he’s likely to be the one to take out of the race.
Compare his breeding with that of Maxanisi, who is from hurdles-winning stock, his sire, Kalanisi himself, having had just the one star over the smaller obstacles, Katchit, but nothing to speak of over fences.
1.35 Newbury (Berkshire Novices’ Chase) This is a Graded novice chase prize picked up by Gold Cup winners on their paths to glory: Denman (2006), Bobs Worth (2011) and Coneygree (2014).
It’s Henderson 3, Nicholls 2 in the decade, and here they clash in a disappointing small-field renewal, albeit we have become used to a handful of novices jumping round the A1 tracks for prizes bigger than they give to a decent handicap!
Again, the highest rated, Virgillio, has to give weight all round, not only by dint of penalties for success but weight for age to the Nicholls-Henderson duo because they are four-year-olds.
Nicholls is a devil for pushing his four-year-old chasers into the big time, and he may well have used up another of my Fortune Cookies, Frodon for now (111 in novice events but last of 10 finishers in a Grade 3 at Cheltenham).
Clan Des Obeaux has had only five races in his life, just the one chase, fourth in a strong novice event (six ran) at Chepstow.
Another ex-French, Henderson’s Protek des Flos (4.2 this morning) doesn’t do a tap at home and hasn’t jumped a fence in public but beat Clan Des Obeaux, giving that one weight, in the Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham in January.
UBAK! STRANGE CASE OF MISSING 20-1
2.10 Newbury (Long Distance Hurdle) You always know when a Racing Post race focus has a hot tip from a trainer: all the headline writers are on it. So today we have Ubak, Ubak (it’s fancied then, is it? Ubacked it?).
Strangely, they both put up 16-1 offers by bookies beginning with ‘B’; there was more power to the punters with a 20-1 shot in the same list of published prices on page 8 (curiouser and curiouser, said Alice Treedown).
Perhaps a carleess sub-editor tweaked the wrong odds when he was blacking up the best offers. It’s not Newtonian physics, guys!
There was 13.5 Ubak on BETDAQ this morning, and my first bet of the day would be that you wouldn’t get the 20s or the 16s that the ‘experts’ have nominated. Uknowhatimean?
Whatever you back (keep them coming, Daqman) you can now expect movement in the market, if only because the lemmings will want to be on Ubak, even when the odds shrink.
That’s despite the Post leaving the salient bit out of the form! Yes, the headline writers cite Ubak’s 3m win at Aintree in April 2016 as their main reason for tipping him today.
But that race has been deleted from his chronological form published on page 58. Is this a plot? Hold your hand up Newton, or was it Fermat (your last theorem this one, matey!)
The form gives a Newbury defeat in November, 2015, then leapfrogs five races, including his third in the Coral Cup and that win at Aintree they’re banging on about.
In fact, Ballyoptic won over the same CD at the same Aintree meeting more than seven seconds faster and, though a two years younger horse, is officially rated 9lb higher than Ubak.
The snag is whether his fall behind Silsol at Wetherby on the last day has affected him mentally.
Uknowwhatimeanharry is unbeaten in five races, since he won over shorter at this Newbury meeting a year ago. He went on to win the Albert Bartlett and goes well fresh but, like Ubak, he’s eight years old.
Yes, eight-year-olds have won it in the decade, even aged nine. But those were mainly at the end of winning sequences in the race by superstars Inglis Drever and Big Buck’s.
The new staying star gets off the mark in this at age six or seven (Big Buck’s, Inglis Drever, Thistlecrack), as you’d expect.
Shades Of Midnight, getting 4lb today, is not as far behind the principals as his 147 rating would suggest, if he can repeat his close second to Silsol at Kelso in April. Penalties for Snow Falcon – gives 4lb and 8lb – seem to make this a ‘look-see’ expedition only.
So is Gary Moore super-optimistic about Ubak? He tells the same Racing Post: ‘I do think he has a serious chance but I hope the wind dries it out a bit, and there isn’t much alternative anyway as he gets a lot of weight in handicaps.’
Menorah’s trainer also has a ‘there’s nothing else for him’ attitude, so – a stats man, me – I’m sticking with Ballyoptic, on age and rating at 3.0 this morning. I think the offers will improve if there is a Ubak gamble.
If Ubak posts (!) a win, good luck to all who sail on him, but value isn’t always a big price. I think he’s the right price. And that’s also after reading the trainer’s comments.
HERE’S ONE FOR ALL! I’M ALL FOR ONE
2.45 Newbury Three Musketeers, who won over CD at this meeting last year, has been primed for this, the evidence being that he ran like a dog on his reappearance (just as he did before scoring 12 months ago!)
He has topweight here, though it’s only a 15lb handicap unless you include the rag Aerlite Supreme, who has had blinkers, tongue-tie and now cheekpieces without helping him (perhaps wing mirrors? Oh, and an engine..)
Stilletto is well regarded but doesn’t have the class form of Three Musketeers (3.8 on BETDAQ this morning), and Tenor Nivernais has struggled with a burden up to 18lb higher than he’s won off.
Splash Of Ginge has cost his followers a fortune (and still they tip him), and San Benedeto needs cover in a big field. I’m all for Three Musketeers.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, except the banker)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) JENKINS (12.30 Newbury)
BET 2.3pts win WINNER MASSAGOT, and 1pt win and place SUIT YOURSELF (1.05 Newbury)
BET 6.25pts win PROTEK DES FLOS (1.35 Newbury)
BET 10pts win BALLYOPTIC (2.10 Newbury)
BET 7pts win THREE MUSKETEERS (2.45 Newbury)
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