DAQMAN TIPPING TORNADO: HE LANDS BANKER AND 14.0 WINNER: Daqman hit a whirlwind hat-trick at the Newmarket Craven meeting yesterday, including his banker, Toronado (nap, WON 8-11), and 14.0 BETDAQ morning pick, Tickled Pink (WON 8-1).
BACK-TO-BACK NAPS AND 49 POINTS PROFIT: He was landing back-to-back naps – after Intello (WON 6-4) – and made 40.54 points profit from three consecutive races to add to his 8.50 from the first day. His sequence was:
SUPER LAY (Tattersalls Millions): GHURAIR 3rd evens favourite: ‘Punters don’t have a choice here: Ghurair is a lay at the price’
OUTSIDER WINS (Abernant Stakes): TICKLED PINK WON 8-1 from 14.0 on BETDAQ: ’The 14.0 is simply far too big’
‘MAXIMUM’ ROMPS HOME (Craven Stakes): TORONADO WON 8-11: ‘I cannot recall a race where a horse like this was beaten in such a situation.’ Maximum stakes.
If you’re still relying on ratings, take a look at this. Tickled Pink (official rating 84) first, Jimmy Styles (109) second, six others with 100-plus ratings in rear. Or this: Hot Snap (officially rated 78) first, Sky Lantern (111) second, Winning Express (107) third.
They both happened at Newmarket this week, and both Hot Snap and Tickled Pink were trained by the old HQ maestro Sir Henry Cecil.
Today Sir Henry has more magic up his sleeve, the bred-in-the-purple Magic Of Reality (4.45 Newbury) to be precise. This is his Oaks filly and this is the meeting that launched one of his Oaks winners, Light Shift, in the same ownership in 2007.
With Cecil’s second string, Just One Kiss (seems more likely to need the St Leger trip), also second in the betting, and 9.4 bar two, the surmise is that nothing else is fancied.
It’s a very difficult day and this bet is mainly about faith in a stable in 100% peak form. Only Mahmood Al Zarooni is sailing so fast.
2.30 Newbury Al Zarooni, currently 11201, and Mickael Barzalona (3112) landed maidens on both days of the Craven meeting and Cap O’Rushes won first time last season.
So no excuses if he’s beaten here, even with an official-ratings deficit of 9lb on Mocenigo. The 104-95 difference between them (the rest well below par) is based on their efforts in Group-3 races as two year olds.
When Mocenigo was fifth in the Solario Stakes, he had an Italian Group-3 winner behind him; Cap O’Rushes had a moderate bunch in rear when sixth in his Group 3.
But, as I can’t repeat too often, as far as three-year-olds are concerned, last year was last year, this year is this. And I would have to see Mocenigo before backing him, his trainer, Mr Laid Back, Peter Chapple-Hyam, having scored only once from 13 tries this year.
Cruck Realta’s yard is quite capable of getting them fit first time but is not in much form and its best chance at Newmarket, Bungle Inthejungle, seemed to blow up at the business end, as if needing the race.
Contributor and Incorporate are with stables that normally give their horses a run but Contributor – like Cap O’Rushes and Mocenigo – is entered in the Dante Stakes, so should be well forward.
3.05 Newbury How stats, like ratings, taken at face value can be misleading! You wonder why past winners came to this off ratings of only 86, 87 and 88 until you realize that it has been raised in grade: it’s a class 2 this year, not the class 3 that produced those returns in the last three seasons.
Prizemoney has more than doubled along with the rise: the quantity of runners has remained static, while the question of quality remains to be seen. The class-3 race was already throwing up Group performers.
Hasopop, Kalicamix and Tipping Over dipped their hooves into the pattern pond last year, and Hasopop (hampered in his run) ran well on his return in the (Listed) Lingfield Spring Cup in March.
Snag with him is that, on his trainer’s own admission, he’s a ‘character’ and such horses may contrive to get themselves ‘hampered’; they prefer to be in behind, following the leader. It remains to be seen whether he’s turned over a new leaf after being gelded: I wouldn’t bet on it.
Ribaat is at the front of the market. But this is a similar scenario to Ghurair yesterday, in that Ribaat has been dropped significantly in his target, missing tomorrow’s Group-3 Greenham for this handicap.
BETDAQ offers of around 5-2, against the paper forecast of 7-4, tell it all. Not such a good thing as the Press would have us believe.
In fact, Ribaat has a massive rating for what he’s achieved, the reason being collateral form with the Cheveley Park fourth, Upward Spiral.
But the horses he actually beat in the link race (Doncaster September) suggest that he should have a rating of 89 not the 99 the handicapper has chosen to give him.
However, for a race of this category, he has to be among the likely lads– Ribaat, Hay Dude, So Beloved and Here He Comes – of those least exposed, with just two or three previous runs.
My pound will go on Here Comes When. Andrew Balding had two winners at the Craven Meeting, one of them first run back, and you’d think he must be having a go with this colt to fit a hood first time today: 10.0 on BETDAQ at the time of writing, receiving more than a stone from Ribaat. Here Comes When won first time last season.
4.15 Newbury The royal runner, Sign Manual, was strong in the BETDAQ market this morning. It’s another one of Her Majesty’s super-subtle namings (by Motivator out of New Assembly) at which she’s always been king (..erm, Queen). Takes some working out but you’ll get there.
Peachez is not among the cream of her generation but she’s often raced as if needing this belated step up to 2m and she gets on well with Amy Scott.
Pateese also finishes well but that ‘s because he’s one-paced and 3m over fences is more his style these days. Not my kind of horse.
Nicky Henderson doesn’t make many mistakes and the most likely winner is Lieutenant Miller: his sole Flat success was over further but he races with the pace and this represents a drop in grade from his class-3 win and third last backend.
5.00 Bath The eponymous Beau Nash will forever be connected with the city of Bath. The aptly named Beau Nash, the horse (by Dandy Man), could launch a potential £1m jackpot tonight.
Third, fifth and seventh from his Leicester maiden – second of seven – have all won since. But the best race at Bath, and arguably best of the day, is the sprint:
6.30 Bath (Whitsbury Manor Stud Stakes) Five horses within a couple of points of each other in the BETDAQ market this morning tells you what a close and interesting sprint this is.
Group-3 winner Caledonia Lady, second in this last year, has her ground tonight but Jwala, fast from the stalls, also likes a bit of cut and just missed out on a Listed when running up to one-time Nunthorpe winner Sole Power at Doncaster in September.
Swan Song doesn’t have much ground to make up on Jwala on Goodwood form and both go well fresh. We know Swan Song gets further, could have improved and might have a chance of a strike at Jwala, depending on whether this firm-ground winner acts on tonight’s surface: 17.0 is a flutter as we take a watching brief for the future.
7.30 Bath Back-and-lay fans should have plenty of time to get out on Ancient Times, down from the frozen North presumably intended to front-run after such exploits over the sticks paid off.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 8pts win on each CAP O’RUSHES and CONTRIBUTER (2.30 Newbury)
BET 2.2pts win and place HERE COMES WHEN (3.05 Newbury)
BET 5.8pts win SIGN MANUAL and 4.8pts win LIEUTENANT MILLER (4.15 Newbury)
BET 10pts win (nap) MAGIC OF REALITY (4.45 Newbury)
BET 1.25pts win and place SWAN SONG (6.30 Bath)
BET 3pts win ANCIENT TIMES (7.30 Bath)
DAQMAN’S TARGET: A standard day, very difficult. All are backed to win 20 points.
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