12-1 AND 9-2 DAQMAN STRIKES: Never placed before and 13.0 on BETDAQ in the morning, Malinas Island was one of two winners for Daqman yesterday. He also named a 10.0 shot for back-and-lay bets.
WON 11-2 MALINAS ISLAND from 13.0 on BETDAQ
WON 9-2 AN TAILLIUR
(3rd 5-1) BRETNEY back and lay (win 10.0 lay 5.7)
LADBROKES TROPHY TOMORROW: The Ladbrokes Trophy meeting at Newbury opens today, with the Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle top of the bill and rating Daqman’s nap. The worry is the weather, so Daqman analyses every race at face value. Check the markets.
PAUL’S PIC IS BETDAQ 5.2
⭕ 12.10 Newbury Suddenly there’s quality. Must be the weekend; the difference is so marked these days. The question remains: how much rain has there been and has it got into the ground? We should know before this race.
That a royal runner was withdrawn from top of the ground at Ascot last week suggests that Nicky Henderson didn’t want the weather to interfere with the progress of Kincardine
It implies that Kincardine, by the stamina sire Kayf Tara, is ground dependent so, not for the first time in the crazy game of tipping, I’m blind until we find out this afternoon whether the forecast showers arrive(d) and, if so, whether they affect the conditions. Kincardine is the measure.
⭕ 12.40 Newbury (Berkshire Novices Chase) This test is on the list to produce an automatic Fortune Cookie. Despite small fields, it has brought Bobs Worth, Dynaste, Coneygree, Champ and other future stars to prominence.
Paul Nicholls is hopeful that Pic d’Orhy will transfer his top hurdles form (rating 153) to fences after he jumped brilliantly at Ffos Las, and the Newbury galloping track where he won a Grade-3 hurdle will suit.
The stable last won the race with another French import, Clan des Obeaux, who would take the King George two years later.
The handicapper could only transfer Millers Bank’s hurdles rating (third in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle after a 10-lengths Newbury win) directly to his winning chase debut and has left him on that (153).
It was the same for Tea Clipper, a Grade-3 hurdles winner and Coral Cup third at the Cheltenham festival, but he was raised 7lb (to 149) after a successful chasing debut at Chepstow.
Nassalam carries only 10st 7lb as a four-year-old and the early market had just threequarters of a point between the four.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value 5.2 Pic D’Orhy
RISK A DOUBLE WHAMMY
⭕ 1.15 Newbury This novice hurdle has produced plenty of winners, notably in the last six seasons Buveur d’Air, Lostintranslation and last year My Drogo.
The odds-on Jonbon (brother to Douvan) may well win it but what we now know from his easy bumper win in March was that he beat nothing well. None from the field has won since or even looked like winning.
The same with those behind him in his winning Point in Ireland: all losers right back in the field, bar one, and that one was beaten eight times surrounding just one maiden-hurdle success.
Good Risk At All won two quality bumpers (Listeds) and his Newbury one was at the expense of four winners, one of them a three-times-subsequent hurdles winner. His previous bumper at Cheltenham had future winners in second and third.
🤔 LAYS LOGIC You can only bet as you find and, even with the Nicky Henderson myth and magic behind him, Jonbon is a bigger risk than Good Risk At All; certainly not the odds-on it opened.
I note than Dan Skelton reckons Boombawn more of a long-range project and envisages success for him coming in the Spring.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 3.4 Good Risk At All
SOLO OUT ON HIS OWN
⭕ 1.50 Newbury (Fulke Walwyn Trophy) Nothing very glamorous has come out of this novice chase in honour of the trainer of Mill House but Nicky Henderson sees Mister Coffey as a Cheltenham horse.
Has twice won over hurdles when fresh – both on the soft – and run well in big handicaps, though there’s nothing in his pedigree which encourages a bet first time chasing.
The market has swung towards Boothill this morning, with Mister Coffey easy to back and Solo right out to 9.2.
But his nose defeat by Nassalam over fences when giving the winner 2lb (the rest 11 lengths away) could look top class after Nassalam has run in the quality Berkshire Novices Chase at 12.40.
BETDAQ value 9.2 Solo
⭕ 2.25 Newbury Fanion d’Estruval is a recent winner of the 1.50 Fulke Walwyn Trophy and, as a result, was sent after Graded prizes but was nowhere near good enough. Might not even be good enough to give weight all round here. Rain would help.
Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson both describe their runners in this as ‘fun horses,’ which to my mind means days out for the idle rich. Well, pardon me if I prefer the fun of opposing Eritage and Morning Vicar.
Nicholls also says that Amour De Nuit’s handicap mark is on its limit; chasing might arouse his interest but none aged nine has won this handicap in the decade.
Any rain could end the run of Neville’s Cross who is ground dependent. Last night’s money for Phoenix Way suggests he may do better after a wind op.
But I fancy a bit each-way on Gaelik Coast, is an interesting raider from Donald McCain’s winner-machine, with Brian Hughes up.
BETDAQ value 9.8 Gaelik Coast
MRS MILNER IS THE NAP
⭕ 3.00 Newbury (Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle) Mrs Milner, the Grade-3 Pertemps Final winner at Cheltenham in March, looked full of further potential on her return and can step up to the second rung from the top here.
Big Buck’s, Thistlecrack and, of course, Paisley Park won this. But Paisley Park was then beaten by a six-year-old last year and again the last day when only third to Indefatigable at Wetherby.
He’d missed a run after the break last year and the Wetherby race may have been needed but reaching for cheekpieces suggests they think they’ll fall short again under his 6lb penalty.
Rain would bring the 2020 Cheltenham Stayers Hurdle winner Lisnagar Oscar into it, and yet more rain would boost winter-ground winners On the Blind Side and Thomas Darby, who was fourth at Wetherby.
The winner that day, Indefatigable, was probably catching them all cold with her weight allowance, which is not the same here.
BETDAQ value 4.1 Mrs Milner
JACK HIGH AT BETDAQ 17.0
⭕ 3.35 Newbury Philip Hobbs (One For You) has three runners and Fergal O’Brien (Eyeofthescorpion) two, but their intentions seem clear.
Fergal’s Polish is the only one in the whole field with a CD win to his name but his winning jockey that day rides Eyeofthescorpion, Polish having been well behind One For You (third) here at Newbury the last day when Jamie Snowden won it with Stoney Mountain.
Snowden now runs Alrightjack (BETDAQ 17.0), whom he rates as ‘a stayer, and a good stayer at that, one day’. But he doesn’t want rain, which would let in The Cob (15.5), a real power horse in the mud who is usually ignored in the betting.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.40 Newbury (win 10)
BET 2.25pts win PIC D’ORHY
1.15 Newbury (win 20)
BET 8pts win GOOD RISK AT ALL
1.50 Newbury (win 12)
BET 1.5pts win SOLO
2.25 Newbury (win 20)
BET 2.25pts each-way GAELIK COAST
3.00 Newbury (win 12, nap)
BET 4pts win MRS MILNER
3.35 Newbury (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 3.5pts win THE COB
BET 3pts win ALRIGHTJACK
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
