MOORE AND HUGHES IN LUCKY-SEVEN HEAD-TO-HEAD: Newbury sees champion jockey Richard Hughes and the in-form Ryan Moore in action in all seven races this afternoon.
The market got it right at Newmarket yesterday. And common to the punts on Remember, Willow Beck and Angel Way was the riding of Ryan Moore. He won on two of them and ran the other one to a head. A man in form is hard to beat.
Moore, who has gone 28 from 32 rides in the first four, is still 21 winners adrift of Richard Hughes. Today, on a day of five meetings, with racing from Newcastle down to Newbury, both choose Newbury for seven rides each, head to head all the way through the card.
1.50 and 2.20 Newbury Moore has decided not to ‘exchange’ his views today. So no Eye Contact (1.50) with their man. ‘Eye’ will, of necessity, have to contain Pupil (Hughsie) and, with little or no form to guide us, we must rely entirely on the market, though breeding and trainerform suggests that Ehtifaal is the bigger danger to Pupil.
Barley Mow (2.20, Hughsie switches from Glebe Spirit) is half-brother to last year’s winner of Division 1, and the highly-regarded Zerfaal (Group-1 entered) may have most to fear from Yuften, a Royal Lodge Stakes and Racing Post Trophy entry. Watch the market.
2.50 Newbury Balducci did well, third, in a class-2 handicap in June, taking them all on from the front, and it will be interesting to see what tactics Kieren Fallon employs, with this gelding now dropped way down to a claimer.
Mabait, a Listed winner in his day, also ran well in a class 2 last time out. Balty Boys (Hughes), a class-4 animal, rated 6lb behind Balducci, has also led before now, and Moore will have his work cut out against a fast pace, since his mount, Tatlisu, is a sprint-bred sprint winner and was beaten in two 7f races out of two in July.
3.20 Newbury Three-year-olds have had only one sniff of the win prizemoney in eight years but Statutory runs from six five-day acceptors for Mark Johnston and will be suited by the extra distance.
I was on his 7-1 stablemate Royal Skies (boast boast) when they finished first and third at Ascot six days ago, when Statutory was gaining ground at the end of the 1m 4f.
Hughes on the class-5 horse, Sunny Future, looks out of his depth, two grades higher. Likewise Poyle Thomas. And Moore’s mount, Sir Bedivere comes to the table with only a maiden win on his CV. Likewise Masquerading.
So the danger may be a tail-flasher, Continuum. That hasn’t stopped her winning a couple of races but she is definitely quirky (slow away Salisbury, penultimate start). Statutory looks good in a BETDAQ-value race.
3.55 Newbury At last the Hughes and Moore show! They are on the first two favourites in this fillies’ contest in the morning market, Wind Fire (Moore) and Lilbourne Lass, with 7.0 bar two on BETDAQ.
If you check out the big-race entries, you’d have to consider Autumns Blush I(Cheveley Park) and Abbakova comes across from Ireland, though their form doesn’t amount to much so far.
Lilbourne Lass returns to the CD of her neck second to a colt in the Super Sprint in July, when seven winners followed her home.
Wind Fire was third in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot, also taking on colts, and with five winners behind her, including Ambiance (fourth) who recently played a big part in the record run by Sudirman in the Phoenix Stakes at The Curragh.
Snag for Wind Fire fans is her subsequent disappointing effort, fifth, upped to 6f, when the fourth home turned around their maiden form. I’ll go with the Hannon filly.
4.30 Newbury Assembly is 4lb well in on his revised mark, which is higher than the penalty for his Yarmouth success but that was a handicap for maidens: it included one with 16 consecutive defeats!
And, be warned, it was first-time blinkers that probably won him the day. Assembly would be a lay, if the opposition was anything much, but it’s pretty exposed as ordinary, so you have to decide: can the lightly-raced Assembly improve past these and will the blinkers work a second time? Or should you lay him on the grounds that you have 11 other winners on your side.
Of these, Secret Missile and Panther Patrol (Moore) have bounced back recently after a long break since poor Spring form but Royal Challis (Hughes) hasn’t really fulfilled the promise of his Windsor win at that time and he can’t beat Grand Denial on a later run at the same course. Panther Patrol at 9.2 is tempting for win and place.
6.00 Newmarket Three-year-olds won every race on the card open to them last year and one I think will go on from a first-time win in blinkers (visors actually) is Excuse To Linger, who I took at a big price (6.4 in a BETDAQ-value orange).
In fact, William Buick, the jockey on ‘Linger’ could be the man all day. He rides at two meetings for John Gosden, who has had 11 winners from his last 18 starters.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
all bets staked to win 20 points
BET 8pts win (nap) STATUTORY (3.20 Newbury)
BET 8.8pts win LILBOURNE LASS (3.55 Newbury)
BET 2.4pts win and place PANTHER PATROL (4.30 Newbury)
BET 3.7pts win EXCUSE TO LINGER (6.00 Newmarket)
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