THE JUDGEMENT OF DAQMAN! Daqman pushed his profit over the 40-points mark for two days in which he has had five returns.
Profit on the day yesterday: approx 7.00
WON 1-1 JUDGEMENTOFSOLOMON
WON (w/p 3rd 9-1) DARK MOON RISING 18.0 taken on BETDAQ
Profit on the day Wednesday: 33.25
WON 10-3 SKELLET nap
WON 10-3 WINDCRACK
WON 7-2 OVERTURE
CITY OF TROY SOUTHWELL PREP: Newbury and Ayr hold the big meetings of the weekend, 417 miles apart. But the afternoon sensation takes place somewhere in between at Southwell where the 1,500 crowd will not pay to enter; there will be no racing, no betting. It’s the crucial Breeders Cup Classic prep on tapeta for horse of the year City of Troy, with American-style starting stalls and four or five stablemates in a fast-pace one-mile workout.
IT’S BRONZE ON THE PODIUM
JUST 25 will line up for each of gold, silver and bronze from the 183 left in the Ayr Gold Cup entry pool, which means that 108 are disappointed. They are clearly short of a race or two (or three) in the sprint division!
Even the slight difference in range between last year (ratings of 94 to 104) and this (93-107) suggests the quality of Gold at the top end of this class-2 handicap is constantly rising.
The Group-3 sprint at Newbury tomorrow has nine out of 11 declared runners on 102 to 106. Hard work for the punter, as only one winning favourite in the last eight suggests.
Those who prefer handicaps will be pleased to see there is still that range of a stone in the charge for the Ayr gold.
Those who claim that stakes races are easier need to work overtime to find an edge among those nine at Newbury separated not by 14lb but by just 4lb.
You will need to dig deep into the algorithms or make a rough and ready assessment of going preference, draw bias (if any); other leanings in the stats, and jockey and trainer form.
Eight of the last nine winners carried between 9st and 9st 2lb! Only one was favourite; only one had a double-figure draw. We’ll compare notes tomorrow.
The last seven winners of the Ayr Gold Cup all had a double-figure draw, with 12, 13 and 14 scoring three times in the last four seasons.
YOU GOT TO LOVE THIS BET
⭕ 3.40 Ayr (Scottish Sprint) Before the podium of sprint handicaps start with bronze, we have yet another Listed for fillies trying to raise their status at paddocks. And yet another sprint!
I picked one out for just such a race when I saw her finish well over 5f at Goodwood, second to the subsequent winner of the Be Friendly at Haydock.
I thought Got To Love a Grey, who was second that day, would love a track with one of these extra half-furlongs at the end of a long straight like Goodwood. BETDAQ offers around 8.0.
The obvious threat to all is Azure Blue (7.2) but we have to assume that she can bounce back from an off day, tailed off at York.
TAKE LOW-STALL APPROACH
⭕ 4.15 (Ayr Bronze Cup) Punters hope that results by stall of the Bronze today can be followed, setting the trend for the Gold.
Turnkey in 2020 and 2023 were gates 4 and 6 following up 21 and 23 in 2021 and 2022. Would they indicate the winner of the Gold?
In fact, Gold results by stall were 25, 14 (in 2020 and 2023), 25 and 12 (2021 and 2022) so only one of the four years could even vaguely compare.
Look for pace horses to set alight the (usually) three Bronze groups; far side, near side and middle.
I had to check my own findings three times over, finding for stalls 2, 4, 6, 8, 9 and 11 (wow) from which I chose Cavalier Approach (16.0) and Jonny Concrete (9.8).
Call Me Ginger, who won it three years ago for Jim Goldie out of 4, now comes out of 7. But the one I liked of his was Rock Melody (stall 24 at 10.0), my pick of the high numbers.
That gives me Concrete and Rock in my 1-2-3 on the Betdaq Betting Exchange but these are among the lowest class in the Ayr trio of sprints this weekend so I’m still between Rock and a hard place.
FOREST TAKES NEW ROUTE
⭕ 4.05 Newbury William Haggas has won this Listed three times in the last nine seasons, including with a three-year-old.
I couldn’t get the forward planning for the then FORTUNE COOKIE Lake Forest, after his seven consecutive 6f races, second the last twice at Group level to Inisherin in the Commonwelth Cup, then to Elite Status in the Hackwood, running on well at the finish.
The answer is here for all to see; Lake Forest has taken a new route to autumn prizes, stepped up a furlong and the drop to Listed must give him the shout over the four-year-olds.
Nostrum is a worry, narrowly beaten by Noble Dynasty in the summer, with Sir Michael Stoute ‘filling his boots’ before he retires. English Oak was a stone behind Noble Dynasty early in the season.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.40 Ayr (win 20)
BET 2.85pts win GOT TO LOVE A GREY
BET 2pts to win 12 AZURE BLUE
4.05 Newbury (win 12)
BET 6pts win LAKE FOREST (nap)
BET 3pts win NOSTRUM
4.15 Ayr (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 5.5pts win JONNY CONCRETE
BET 5pts win ROCK MELODY
BET 3.25pts win CAVALIER APPROACH
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
