DAQMAN WIN-AND-PLACE OUTSIDERS: Yesterday’s nap was second for the second day running and the outsider at 9-1 was second, too! Daqman hopes for better luck today with bets at 12.5 and 14.5 but accepts that they need place savers.
ANOTHER HOT WEEKEND: Look forward not back! It’s the Gold Cup at Newbury tomorrow and the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. Sunday at Fairyhouse features the Royal Bond, the Drinmore and the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle.
12.5 IDY WOOD LOOKED BIG
⭕ 12.45 Newbury (Fulke Walwyn Trophy): Idy Wood is the only runner of the day for Jamie Snowden, who has had his last nine runners finish in a place, three of them winners, every one well backed, with SPs of between between 10-11 and 4-1.
Idy Wood’s form is equally consistent; seven out of eight placed, three of them winners, and three of four best backed were winners.
Paul Nicholls knows that running the four-year-old Kalif Du Berlais in a novices’ chase like this is a fox among chickens: though rated 7lb higher than Asta La Pasta, he receives a pound.
But Kalif Du Berlais may himself be a bit chicken after a very heavy fall at Carlisle. It’s hard to tell what effect it will have had.
The rule after such a collision with the ground is to run them again quickly’or put them away for a long break, depending on their constitution and level of education and, of course, any scrapes or injuries they sustained.
At 11-4 on, ‘Kalif’ was in second, just a length down, when falling four out in the Carlisle race. It was ‘heavy and horrible,’ I was told. Nicholls and his vets presumably think the horse is ok and that another race will restore his confidence. But can you have confidence at 1.77 on BETDAQ this morning.
Tedley has improved under 7lb-claimer Jamie Brace and I thought Asta La Pasta jumped well round Carlisle the same day Kalif Du Berlais came down. But I’m tempted win and place by the 12.5 Idy Wood.
THE CHALLOW OVER FENCES..
⭕ 1.55 Newbury (John Francome Novices Chase): Another test for young jumpers, this one half a mile further but no less tricky, unless you have faith in the form of the (Grade-1 novices’) Challow Hurdle on this course at the end of last year.
Captain Teague won it off 140 with The Jukebox Man (127) well held in third, Johnnywho fourth (finished well) and Masaccio fifth.
The Jukebox Man continued in novice staying hurdles at Grade 1 level and was second in both the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham and the Sefton at Aintree, so his 148, now 6lb higher than Captain Teague is well deserved.
Captain Teague’s recent chasing debut was a non-event (the Shallow Chase?) when everything else came out because of dry ground at Exeter for the Future Stars Silver Bowl (the irony of it!)
Boombawn’s winning form in four out of five strikes over hurdles and one chase has all been on good ground. It’s good to soft on the chase course but more showers are forecast.
COME ON MY SON! BETDAQ 14.5
⭕ 2.30 Newbury (2m 4f chase): Dan Skelton with 6-1 shots (2017 and 2019) and Vanetia Williams (2018 and 2021) at 2-1 and 8-1 suggest that the market will have a good idea of what is going to win.
Heltenham (Skelton) is unbeaten at Newbury (111 over the CD) on good to soft, soft and heavy. He was half a length behind Paul Nicholls’ grey Golden Son at Kempton in February and is now 11lb worse off.
Heltenham then beat another consistent Nicholls’ sort, Kandoo Kid, in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury in March, with Sir Psycho 11 lengths fourth
Therein lies another form tie-up: Galop De Chasse (Venetia Williams) had made all here to beat Kandoo Kid a neck last November but the Kid then beat Galops’ stablemate, Frero Bambou in today’s race.
Galop De Chasse is up in the weights now but Venetia has hit top gear since his second at Wetherby on reappearance a month ago.
Betdaq Betting Exchange Heltenham (5.5 offers this morning) loves Newbury but is badly in with Golden Son (15.5): form when fresh 1321. Galop De Chasse (3.3) is with the stable that’s hot but is a bit short, if the relative form of these horses is to be believed.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.45 Newbury (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 4.5pts win and 5.5 place IDY WOOD
1.55 Newbury (win 20 nap)
BET 8pts win CAPTAIN TEAGUE
2.30 Newbury (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 3.5pts win and 4.5pts place GOLDEN SON
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