DAQMAN ON THE SUPREME GAMBLE: Daqman has already struck at Cheltenham with massive ‘overs’ in the Supreme Novice Hurdle. He recommended nearly four times the current price in his ante-post festival previews. See story below.
WIN, WIN: THE WATERSMEET WAY: Daqman moved all in with maximum stakes on Watersmeet (WON 2-1) last month, then yesterday he was a special Flat (AW nap) when he won again at 5-2.
BALLY BIG CHELTENHAM GAMBLE
He’s done it again! The Daqman column, famous for successful ante-post punts, is now on the new favourite for the Supreme Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham.
Ballyandy, taken at 12.0 on BETDAQ on February 16, was the plunge horse on the exchange this morning, in to 4.4, replacing even the mighty Melon as first course for the punters.
The race is the big championship launch on the opening day on Tuesday week, won in the last two seasons by Douvan and Altior, favourites for the Champion Chase and the Arkle respectively this time around.
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies announced the Supreme as the target, despite a bally handy allotment of only 10st 13lb in the Coral Cup.
This is a massive endorsement of Ballyandy’s form and wellbeing from the stable which saddled him to win last year’s Champion Bumper but hasn’t had a Supreme winner since 1994.
In selecting Ballyandy for his first Cheltenham hit, Daqman declared that the horse was officially underrated, pointing out how tempting a handicap would be, though prepared to bet on a Supreme outcome.
Now Twiston-Davies makes public his own feeling that this is a championship horse. Says Daqman, whose bets for today follow below: ‘It’s a win-win situation with plenty of room to lay off, though personally I shall wait before I’m tempted to the BETDAQ green. If, for instance, Melon came out, you’d have 12.0 about a 2-1 chance, maybe shorter!’
12.5 SHOT DESERVES RECOGNITION
1.50 Doncaster No outright favourite has won this in the decade, and it’s 10.5 bar Glimpse of Gold and Bletchley Castle on BETDAQ this morning.
Both failed to complete on the last day, and Glimse Of Gold’s six previous starts still standing have seen defeat by6 a total of 271 lengths. Bletchley Castle is eight now but thus far been kept to a sound surface.
Barry Murtagh has a poor strike rate but had a winner on Wednesday and Recognition (12.5 offers) scored when with Nicky Henderson in the summer, and went very close for Roger Varian on soft ground on the Flat.
2.20 Doncaster Nicky Henderson has trained three in a row in this (form figures 1-11- in the last five years, all favourite) and his Wenyerreadyfreddie seems nailed on, with Lycidas and Jam Session looking exposed.
4.30 Doncaster Devon trainer Nigel Hawke (Jack In The Box at 46.0) won this at a big price (16-1) a couple of years ago but is running only for place money against the smart hurdler Bivouac, who seems to have taken to fences well enough (forecast?).
5.05 Doncaster Another race for outsiders, with not a single winner under 10-1 in its three seasons of existence.
But, when I get off the rattler on the way to Bath races, I always have brunch at the Café Au Lait (4.2), which is as consistently good as Sophie Leech’s seven-year-old!
11.5 DINSDALE OFFERS TOO BIG
2.10 Newbury Winners at 25-1, 20-1 and 16-1 in the last nine seasons, and all but one carrying 10st 12lb or less (that odd one out was one of only three to finish in a small-field race).
Trainers in form are Michael Scudamore (14101 still standing in the last two weeks) and Tony Carroll (four winenrs in eight days), while Neil Mulholland and Warren Greatrex are doing all right thankyou.
Mulholland reaches for a hood on the ex-Godolphin Most Celebrated to try to relax his Triumph Hurdle entry.
Most Celebrated was even money for the Victor Ludorum at Haydock but ran ‘too free’. It will be a temptation for Tom Scudamore to let him go off in front, as he did when he won 28 lengths at Wetherby.
Dinsdale holds Quids In from another Wetherby race, which makes him a big price at 11.5 offers this morning against Quids In’s 3.8.
3.15 Newbury (Geoffrey Gilbey Trophy) When Plaisir d’Amour also won at Wetherby, trainer Venetia Williams said the mare had benefitted from better ground after pulling up in the mud at Uttoxeter.
So you have to watch the rain fall (only slightly better than watching paint dry) before you back this one avec plaisir.
Vision des Champs was sold out of Gary Moore’s for postage stamps, Lord Ben is 12 now and has not won since 2014, while Keep Moving doesn’t. he’s slow and still a maiden.
Greybougg is not going UUP in the world, so the suggestion has to be Red Devil Star (BETDAQ 4.9), who beat a subsequent winner at Ascot in December.
3.50 Newbury Jonjo O’Neill’s last two runners in this both won (2013 and 2015) at nice prices, 10-1 and 9-2. Beggars Cross (5.0 this morning on BETDAQ) can continue the sequence.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength)
BET 2pts win and place RECOGNITION (1.50 Doncaster)
BET 7pts win MOST CELBRATED, and 1pt win and place DINSDALE (2.10 Newbury)
BET 8pts win (nap) RED DEVIL STAR (3.15 Newbury)
BET 5pts win BEGGARS CROSS (3.50 Newbury)
BET 7pts win CAFÉ AU LAIT (5.50 Doncaster)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 2pt win trebles and 2pts win acca Wenyerreadyfreddie (2.20 Doncaster), Red Devil Star (3.15 Newbury), Bivouac (4.30 Doncaster) and Café Au Lait (5.50 Doncaster)
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