DAQMAN IS 35 POINTS CLEAR OF PRICEWISE: The crack horse and the crack tipster, up for the craic! Thistlecrack returns today and Daqman returns to the attack against Pricewise. His target is 500 wins in the nine seasons of the challenge. He needs just two more, with the score 5-0 in the NH season so far, 35 points clear to a single-unit stake on all selections in races chosen by Pricewise (Daqman + 23, Pricewise -12).
RACE-BY-RACE LADBROKES FESTIVAL GUIDE: Today’s battle zone is a superb weekend Ladbrokes jumping festival at Newbury on the first day of the UK winter. Daqman analyses the card, race by race. The 2.25 and 3.35 are the Daqman v Pricewise races.
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12.20 Newbury (Ladbrokes National Hunt Maiden Hurdle) Nicky Henderson, who has landed a hat-trick in this and won with Champion Hurdle ace Buveur d’Air in 2015, switches Chef Des Obeaux to join stablemate Santini in the longer race at 1.20.
I thought he’d be Peur De Rien (afraid of nothing) but, if it’s not an easy take, what should we be on?
Maybe it’s Simply The Betts, from a stable in cracking form, or J P McManus’s World Premier, which has Barry Geraghty, last year’s winning rider for Henderson, switching to Ben Pauling.
I would think that Present Ranger needs further (brother to a Grand National winner) and the only current reputation Lostintranslation has is as a bridesmaid, though I was warned this morning that he is strongly fancied.
Strangely, it was a Henderson horse that beat Lostintranslation (3.2 on BETDAQ early mouse) here at Newbury on the last day and, on a line through a horse called Lalor, he comes out well in front of many of these on bumper and hurdles form, including Black Op.
TURN AGAIN, WHITTINGTON..
12.50 Newbury (Ladbrokes Novices’ Chase) Six-year-olds have won five out of six, and here’s McManus-Geraghty again with Hell’s Kitchen, another who has been bridesmaid to some decent horses.
But first-time hood didn’t quite work on the last day, so first-time tongue-tie is added.
Paul Nicholls has done a similar thing with Cyrname, and such degrees of desperation don’t encourage me to have a bet.
At least Hell’s Kitchen is not so exposed a bridesmaid as Dusky Legend. His form is a catalogue of missed opportunities: 2222211223222.
Harry Whittington, who broke the mould with a five-year-old scorer in 2015, saddles one aged six this time, Bigmartre, who put in a good round to win on his chasing debut at Ludlow: 5.6 on BETDAQ.
1.20 Newbury (Ladbrokes Novices’ Hurdle) Here’s Henderson, who has won this twice in three seasons, choosing Chef Des Obeaux and Santini from five possibles, switching Chef des Obeaux from the opening maiden.
Beckensfirth, Bull And Barn and Boss Mans Ladder are the only runners to have tried hurdles so far; the rest have been seen over fences, in Points or in bumpers. Tough going for punters.
YANWORTH A HUB FOR MULTIPLES
1.50 Newbury (Ladbrokes Novices’ Chase) Pressmen who suggested Yanworth should return to hurdling incurred the wrath of trainer Alan King, as ‘so-called experts who haven’t sat on a horse in their lives’.
Yanworth has started favourite for 12 consecutive races, and has been seven times odds on.
He went to Exeter first past the post six times since Yorkhill beat him in the 2016 Neptune, but he landed too steeply and fell. That was just a fortnight back.
This race, the former Berkshire Chase, is a glittering pointer. Bobs Worth (2011), who won the RSA and then the Gold Cup, and Coneygree (2014), the 2015 ‘gold’ hero, were both launched into the stratosphere to steeplechasing
To get that star status, Yanworth has to best 2017 Neptune winner and sequence scorer Willoughby Court and Adrien Du Pont (8.0 BETDAQ offers), who took the same novice chase which went last year to Frodon who, though only four, then captured a gold cup at the Cheltenham December meeting.
Adrien Du Pont’s odds are too big against this early novice-chase backcloth but I shall put Yanworth centre stage in my Daq Multiples.
JAMESON IS A SUPERB JUMPER
2.25 Newbury (Ladbrokes Handicap Chase) If you thought Frodon was a bit young, so, too, O O Seven last year in terms of experience.
He was already seven but won his first attempt at jumping fences a year ago and went on to finish in the first four in the RSA and the Grand National in his final five starts.
He wins first time, and I thought he’d go for the Grand Sefton over those same National fences at Aintree (December 9), and he has to guive weight all round here in a race usually won by a lightweight.
But this seems to be the preferred choice so, not the first time today, I’m querying the same trainer’s decisions about his afternoon’s plans (and I have sat on a horse).
We should be able to get the favourite beaten. It’s happened every year for 10 years and, though class 3 and 4 winner Willie Boy deserves a crack at the next rung of the ladder, his style of running has him vulnerable to a classy hold-up horse.
Nigel Twiston-Davies has had an amazing run in early-season handicaps, and I’ll take a chance that the ground is drying up enough for Jameson a superb jumper and a tasty offer at 9.4 on BETDAQ this morning.
EASY FOR THE OLD THISTLECRACK
3.00 Newbury, (Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle) A similar situation to the Yanworth race, with Thistlecrack likely to be a short price to resume his 2015-16 sequence of nine in a row including this one.
But he missed the festivals this year and has young pretenders coming to oust him, notably another prolific winner, Colin’s Sister, trained by a bullish Fergal O’Brien, and Wholestone, yet another top Nigel Twiston-Davies contender, who is 3lb better off for two lengths with Colin’s Sister on Wetherby form.
UknowhatImeanharry won the Ladbrokes Champion Stayers Hurdle at Punchestown among 10 successes out of 11, but still trails Thistlecrack in the ratings and has to give him 6lb because of recent penalties. That’s a tough double act to pull on the handicapper, even with match fitness advantage.
Wholestone, officially 15lb inferior to Thistlecrack, has to give him 3lb. So I’m up for the Crack, assuming he is his old self.
BOYHOOD DAYS BEGIN TODAY
3.35 Newbury (Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle) Hello George! Philip Hobbs used to farm this one (three wins 2007-12) and hopes that George can pick up the thread.
He was a winner at Newbury over shorter last term but was really under the cosh when pipped at Ayr stepped up to today’s trip on his return.
Forza Milan, brother to a Grand National winner, will grind it out, and there’s not much between Whataknight and Beneagles at the weights.
But I took a big liking to Boyhood when he won well at Lingfield. His breeding suggests that we will see the best of him today: 9.8 BETDAQ offers.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 10pts win LOSTINTRANSLATION (12.20 Newbury)
BET 4.25pts win BIGMARTRE (12.50 Newbury)
BET 2.75pts win and place ADRIEN DU PONT (1.50 Newbury)
BET 2.25pts win and place JAMESON (2.25 Newbury)
SUPERNAP: 20pts win THISTLECRACK (3.00 Newbury)
BET 2.25pts win and place BOYHOOD (3.35 Newbury)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 2pt win trebles and 1pt win acca Lostintranslation (12.20 Newbury), Chef Des Obeaux (1.20 Newbury), Yanworth (1.50 Newbury), Thistlecrack (3.00 Newbury)
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