TWO WINNERS A DAY AND A SUPERNAP: Though the cold and rain are back, Daqman continued in hot form on the All Weather with a supernap yesterday at Newcastle to follow on his 2-2 at Kempton on Wednesday. He also scored twice yesterday, giving him a total profit of 40.75 in the two days:
WON 11-8 FOREST OF DEAN (supernap)
WON 11-4 THE DELLERCHECKOUT
NEWBURY UNDER DAQMAN SPOTLIGHT: Today’s turn-out is very poor at Doncaster, so Daqman gets his teeth into the form facts and stats about Newbury, and finds a (win 50) bull’s-eye bet. But he’s in such good form on the All Weather that the hub of his Daq Multiples is a banker at Lingfield.
TAKE A WOOD TO SEE OFF FALDO
2.20 Newbury Here’s a tale of two sportsmen. Nick Faldo was such a good ball player that he could choose: football, tennis, golf? Financially, at the time, there was really no choice and he became three times Open champion and Sir Nick.
J P McManus used his business brain and let the horses run for him, and at Cheltenham this year we look back 20 years to Istabraq, his triple Champion Hurdle winner. Today he’s backing Faldo, the horse. Twice.
We assume he’ll have his euro on but it’s his judgment and nerve as a buyer and breeder that is on the line here at Newbury. His trainer today, Ian Williams, might also grind a few teeth before the race is over.
No sooner had Faldo run second to J P’s Warwick winner Laskadine than yer man opened his cheque-book and bought him, too. But, with the ink hardly dry, Laskadine got stuffed, 25 lengths last of five at Haydock.
For McManus it’s probably just another day at the office. For Worcester trainer Williams (currently 0-31), success for Faldo would be a turning point. For the punter it’s just another variation on the enigma that is betting.
What does the Warwick form mean? Was John Patrick McManus wise to bet on it by buying the Jukebox Jury grey Faldo? Or is it flop of the pops?
I can tell you only that Faldo has the stats on his side, in receipt of 6lb from the favourite, Christopher Wood. But that one won so easily at Fontwell that the third and fourth were 65 and 73 lengths behind at the line.
Only one winner in the decade has carried the penalty that takes him up to 11st 4lb today. Zizaneur has the same: his success was in modest company at Dieppe in August and he looked one paced when second at Ludlow in January.
Fresno Emery didn’t beat much at Fontwell and quickly fell apart when raised in class at Ascot. Vision Clear was useful on the Flat. Harry Whittington reaches for a hood for Brandy James here on a track where his yard does well.
But the huge difference in form today is between the luckless Ian Williams and Paul Nicholls, for whom Christopher Wood would be winner number 22 in 15 days, Ditcheat’s only runner this afternoon.
He looks big this morning at 2.4. Unless Faldo has the iron J P thinks he has, the nap will drive right away down the Newbury fairway.
ALL GOING WELL FOR LILLINGTON
2.50 Newbury Lillington drops back to the trip which won him three from four last year, including off today’s rating, and looked value at 6.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Awake at Midnight has a similar profile, with two gambled-on successes (fences and hurdles at 2m) before trying longer trips around Christmas time, and there’s just a pound between the two at the weights, though Midnight’s trainer, Philip Hobbs, is in modest form.
Such longer trips have been the making of Instant Replay (all wins at Sedgefield) but he’s not shown enough pace to score back at the minimum (form figures 20022).
Admiral’s Secret looks risky, having failed to finish the last twice (in fact, refused to start at Haydock) but he’s down a grade here.
It’s another equine enigma variation but Lillington has had a break, likes a sound surface and, again, is with a stable in form.
3.25 Newbury This race is impossible for betting purposes: do you back the unbeaten Emitom or take similar odds that one of Nicky Henderson’s three will stop his run?
GIVE HIM A BREAK AND HE WINS
3.55 Newbury There’s a long way to go here (3m) if you’re carrying weight, and Skidoosh is seemingly set to give away up to almost two stone, albeit reduced with a bit of help from his 7lb-claimer pilot.
The card says it’s an old-fashioned betting race as a 26lb range handicap but, take out Skidoosh and plater Affaire d’Honneur, and the parameters are down to 12lb. If it wasn’t for young Jonjo!
The 5lb claimer, who beat a big field at Warwick on His Dream on the last day of 2018, looks ideally placed on a horse that has won the last twice after a break and likes the ground with just the slight ease it has today. A decent punt at BETDAQ offers of 13.5.
Jabulani has scored only on soft, Copper Gone West in a three-horse in which one tailed off, and Notachance is a maiden for yet another yard with a modest strike rate right now (Alan King 9%).
AW: Zmhar (4.10 Lingfield) was hit 13lb for his recent six-lengths Chelmsford success but has just a 6lb penalty here so, in theory, is half a stone well in for James Tate and Oisin Murphy who are 2-2 as a team.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.20 Newbury (supernap)
BET 20pts win CHRISTOPHER WOOD
2.50 Newbury (win 20)
BET 4pts win LILLINGTON
3.55 Newbury (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 4pts win and place HIS DREAM
DAQ MULTIPLES
3 x 3pt win doubles, 1pt win treble
CHRISTOPHER WOOD (2.20 Newbury)
HIS DREAM (3.55 Newbury)
ZMHAR (4.10 Lingfield)
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