DAQMAN LOOKING FOR A CHAMP AMONG STAR POTENTIAL AT NEWBURY: Daqman landed his nap yesterday, Golden Whisky (WON 4-6), and only his supernap is struggling. He needs a Champ today, opening day of the kingmaker Ladbrokes meeting at Newbury.!
ACCOUNTS UPDATE
Daqman 7, Pricewise 1 (+118.30 to -85.00)
Bull’s-eye bets 66% (+ 99.75 from 4-6)
Bulls-eye naps 50% (+ 256pts from 8-16)
Naps 53% (+ 37.01 from 9-17)
Supernaps 40% (- 19.50 from 2-5)
* recommended stakes except naps 10pts win; supernaps 20pts
TODAY’S HEADLINES
🔹 GATEWAY TO THE STARS OF 2020
🔹 SULLY SPARKS McMANUS GAMBLE
🔹 NICKY NEWBURY GRAND MOGUL
🔹 KALASHNIKOV CALLS THE SHOTS
🔹 LET’S HAVE A BALL ON BETDAQ!
🔹 CHAMP CHASE FORM STANDS OUT
🔹 RISE AND RISE OF PAISLEY PARK
🔹 I WILL DO IT AT 39.0 ON BETDAQ
GATEWAY TO THE STARS OF 2020
Star dates, Newbury 29 and 30 November. The course this morning officially opened the Denman Gate, named after the dual Hennessy Gold Cup winner.
New stars seem sure to emerge at the meeting, including in tomorrow’s Hennessy replacement , the Ladbrokes Trophy, now in its third year. Meanwhile..
12.15 Newbury (Ladbrokes NH Maiden Hurdle) In the last decade, four-year-olds are 8-10 and Nicky Henderson has won in five years out of the 10.
Combine these hefty stats, which produced Buveur d’Air in 2015, and you get Son of Camas, the sole Henderson runner, who scored in a bumper here three weeks back.
Other bumper winners in the field are all five – Ask for Glory, King Roland, Sadlermor, Trincomalee – but Coconut Splash is a four-year-old with hurdles experience, cutting out a lot of the running when second in a biggish field over 2m 4f, the third horse home a winner since.
My three against the field are Son Of Camas (BETDAQ 4.9), Coconut Splash and King Roland, an Irish Point winner, impressive with a bumper double last season.
SULLY SPARKS McMANUS GAMBLE
12.45 Newbury (Ladbrokes Fulke Walwyn Trophy Novice Chase) Six-year-olds dominate (6-8) and trainer Harry Whittington is 2-4. Only one outright favourite has won in the decade but all winners have been 6-1 or shorter at SP.
Southfield Stone has run second in decent chases but the handicapper is not impressed: his 142 rating has not budged.
Fanion d’Estruval completed a hat-trick (two of them chases) before Venetia Williams took him over from Guillaume Macaire. He’s only four but they start ‘em young in France, and there’s an Irish Grand National winner on the dam’s side.
Early gamble in the race was J P McManus’s Sully d’Oc AA, another ex-French, triple hurdles winner over there, but unusual to see an Anglo-Arabian.
Has not won a race for more than two years but trainer Anthony Honeyball is on fire with form figures of 124022112.
West To The Bridge drops back from second over a longer trip on the last day and the faster two miles today should suit.
Instead of going for a hurdles hat-trick, front-running Khaga made a satisfactory switch to fences over further on the last day and tries for a third Whittington win in this race.
An open contest, as the BETDAQ 104% overround suggested at 4.9 the field, early mouse. With such a low overround, I could back the former French pair, taking 8.0 Fanion Destruval and 8.2 Sully d’Oc.
NICKY NEWBURY GRAND MOGUL
1.20 Newbury (Ladbrokes Novices Hurdle) Winners have all been five-year-olds, all at a maximum SP of 5-1, and tricky Nicky Henderson has currently saddled three winners in five years. He’s the Grand Mogul of Newbury!
The brother to recent Willie Mullins Cork winner, Brahma Bull, Grand Mogul easily won an Irish bumper, and is a fine, big horse, sure to appreciate the 2m 4f trip today. I took 7.8 on BETDAQ.
The one for the money overnight was Severano (7.6), trained by Oliver Sherwood, who landed a mares’ Listed with Papagena at Kempton earlier in the week.
Colin Tizzard thinks a lot of Faustinovick, who was a bit fragile last season but could be the real deal now. Shan Blue should come on for his first run back, and was well fancied this morning, but Brewers Project, injured in schooling last autumn, is a watching brief.
LET’S HAVE A BALL ON BETDAQ
1.50 Newbury (Ladbrokes Handicap Chase) The usual suspects win this (Tizzard, Hobbs, King, Twiston-Davies) but never with one you’re expecting.
Not a single favourite has scored in the decade, though eight winners have been single figures at SP.
The secret ingredient seems to be Graded form, as happened with Old Grangewood, when he won in 2017, after twice being placed at Grade-2 level.
He is now 10lb lower but that’s because he hasn’t won, or looked like winning, since, though a double wind-op might help.
Azzerti, seventh in the Stable Plate at the Cheltenham Festival, gamely gave weight away to win over the Newbury CD on his reappearance, a perfect prep for this, but easy to back this morning.
Kalashnikov, who beat La Bague Au Roi in the Manifesto, ran well on his return over the same Aintree CD, and could break the favourites’ hoodoo.
Glen Forsa beat him over half a mile shorter but then lost his way, and Mick Channon will be hoping that first run back is the key to him today.
San Benedeto, who beat course-specialist Gala Ball in the Greatwood here over CD in March, lost this form after trying the Grand National fences in the Topham. Could be transformed by wind ops but refers top of the ground.
I had a bit of the 9.2 Gala Ball in the BETDAQ orange, with his Newbury form 122221 and his soft-ground form in that time 12312. Seems solid each way.
CHAMP CHASE FORM STANDS OUT
2.25 Newbury (Ladbrokes Berkshire Novices Chase) Favourites are 5-10 and only one winner in the decade was bigger than 7-2 at SP.
Winners of this in the decade read like a who’s-who of future stars: Punchestowns, Bobs Worth, Dynaste, Coneygree, Clan des Obeaux and Le Bague Au Roi.
Nicky Henderson (2) and Paul Nicholls (2) are top trainers, all four of their winners below the age of seven, but three of today’s six runners have at least 7lb in hand, according to the official ratings.
One of them, Vision Des Flos, made an abortive chase debut last October and tries the transition from hurdles again after a double wind-op.
Black Op has had similar difficulties with fences, similar wind ops, but finally got his chase career off the ground on the last day, though none of this form compares with Champ over hurdles or fences, going clear on this course three weeks back.
RISE AND RISE OF PAISLEY PARK
3.00 Newbury (Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle) This race became a famous stepping-stone to Cheltenham, thanks to Big Buck’s four-timer which achieved him a rating of 174.
Granted his prowess, it still makes the winner in 2016 and 2018, Unowhatimeanharry under appreciated at 155, some 12lb behind the 2015 winner, Thistlecrack, and a stone off Paisley Park.
Both ‘Harry’ and Thistlecrack are now 11 – in fact, 12 in a month’s time – and, if this is to be a stepping-stone, it would have to be part of the rise and rise of Paisley Park
I WILL DO IT AT 39.0 ON BETDAQ
3.35 Newbury (Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle) Horses aged five and six are 8-10, and a weight range of 10st 7lb to 11st 3lb is 7-9.
One For The Team fits the stats but has been backed on potential, not on results. Samburu Shujaa has won in the grade but that’s why he’s giving away weight off 11st 11lb, alongside last year’s winner, Vive Le Roi.
Dolphin Square (BETDAQ 7.2) will be up there with them next time he runs, 6lb higher than today and, with David Maxwell’s 3lb claim, has to be backed in this.
Black Buble looks well in but has always been kept to a sounder surface, and I shall opt for another 3lb claimer for my second bet, Iwilldoit, said to have done really well over the summer. Sam Thomas’s stable is in top form and 39.0 looks big.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.15 Newbury (win 10)
BET 2pts win SON OF CAMAS
12.45 Newbury (win 20)
BET 2.75pts win FANION D’ESTRUVAL
BET 2.75pts win SULLY D’OC AA
1.20 Newbury (win 20 each)
BET 3pts win SEVARANO
BET 3pts win GRAND MOGUL
1.50 Newbury (win 30, place win 10)
BET 3.5pts win 4.5pts place GALA BALL
2.25 Newbury (supernap)
BET 20pts win CHAMP
3.35 Newbury (win-50 bull’s-eye bets, win 10 place)
BET 8pt win DOLPHIN SQUARE
BET 1.3pts win and 1.5pts place IWILLDOIT
DAQ MULTIPLES
10pts win double
2.25 Champ
3.00 Paisley Park
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