LINCOLN HORSE-BY-HORSE ABC GUIDE: There’s a banker bet at Newcastle tonight but first Daqman dissects the Lincoln Handicap with a horse-by-horse analysis which highlights the current winning trends and form.
SIX WINS, SIX SECONDS: 142 POINTS UP: Daqman got the dreaded seconditis disease yesterday (three runners-up from four races at 12-1, 7-1 and 13-8) but the two best prices included place bets so, with the first three days all in profit, he remains 142 points up for the week with returns of 220111111220022.
STATS LOVE LUCY IN THE LINCOLN
3.35 Doncaster, tomorrow (Lincoln Handicap)
I’ve had one Lincoln winner this year! I backed Lincoln City at 11-1 to beat Burnley in the FA Cup (ok, Daqman; the boy’s done good: now let’s have the Lincoln Handicap winner).
That’s the way to bet if you get one mediocre side low on positivity versus a get-stuck-in-team high in energy and drive.
The high-octane man in the Lincoln Handicap is Richard Fahey, who usually has a go, has won it twice in five years and had 13 of the 91 left in up to the five-day stage.
Here’s the final 22 declarations and we’ll see how his select five representatives fit with the stats. They are Gabrial, Third Time Lucky, Heaven’s Guest, Dolphin Vista and Withernsea.
In the nine years since the race returned to a renovated Doncaster, stalls 1 to 12 have won two-thirds of the time and have finished in the first two 12 times out of 18.
Like many modern handicaps of narrow parameter ratings, the results suggest an increase in quality in recent years. But lower class horses can’t win it, if they can’t get in it!
So it is that, in the last three seasons, the results by rating show nine out of 12 horses reaching the first four with a 100-105 rating
A Age 4, 5 or 6 (only one older in 20 years)
B Rated 100-105
C Drawn 1 to 12
D Early bird (runs well first time back) and/or..
E In form from AW or Meydan
F Had raced in class 2 or better previously
T Trainer (Richard Fahey)
X Black mark. Not won at one mile plus
ABCDF Lucy The Painter
Sprinter for Peter Makin but found new niche (four in a row) over 7f and 1m last Spring for Ed De Giles. Placed in Group 3 at Sandown. Needs to step up again.
ABCEF Eddystone Rock
Better for gelding last Spring (3-4 for Johnny Murtagh). First-time hood and well prepped on AW.
ABCEF Oh This Is Us
Mark raised after Spring hat-trick but improved further at Doncaster in the autumn, despite an overall 31lb hike. Fair efforts Meydan lately. Ryan Moore takes over.
ABDF Donncha
Three out of four Spring of 2015 and fourth in Balmoral at Ascot. Second in the Spring Mile on this day last season but only ninth behind Yuften trying the Balmoral again.
ABDF Yuften
Group-1 placed 3-year-old (William Haggas) and won sprint for Johnny Murtagh. Back to form in the autumn for Roger Charlton, taking 19-runner Ascot Balmoral Handicap.
ABEF Steel Train
Won over 1m as 2yo trained in France. Hit form in UK in the autumn – for new yard – in class-3 Doncaster handicap (7f), and stepped up to class 2 success at same trip.
ABEF Zhui Feng
A nearly horse so far but given chance by the handicapper, well in with Oh This Is Us on Spring form last year and every chance at mile point in Cambridgeshire, faded.
ABF Bravery
My preview tip for the race and an Early Bird. Fourth 2016 Irish 2,000 Guineas but not in same form since, tried up to 1m 4f. Breathing op; switched from Aidan O’Brien.
ACDEF You’re Fired
Class-2 handicap winner three times but, upped 10lb, unable to hold his form at Listed level. Fit from AW.
ACEFT Third Time Lucky
Hat-trick in the Spring of 2015. Two more that autumn included Cambridgeshire. Modest since.
ACFX Battle Of Marathon
Another switched from Aidan O’Brien and gelded. Has never won this far but third in last year’s Lincoln (off 7lb lower) and fifth in the Royal Hunt Cup.
AC Dolphin Vista
Up 12lb since scoring at Ripon last Spring, and won apprentice handicap at Beverley in August.
ACX Withernsea
Good efforts in the Spring. Has not won beyond 7f but stayed on 3l off Oh This Is Us at Doncaster.
ADF Instant Attraction
Modest strike rate but placed in Spring Mile, Thirsk Hunt Cup and close up in Royal Hunt Cup.
AF Master Carpenter
Won 2015 John Smiths. Rear in Third Time Lucky’s Cambridgeshire. Modest since but down 11lb.
BCEF Top Notch Tonto
Hardy warrior; second Champion Mile 2013. Modest form since but second 2016 Galway Festival.
CEFT Gabrial
29 Group races, dropping to Listed for his sole success. First time in a handicap since 2015 Royal Hunt Cup.
BEFX Emell
Had an AW prep as last year before Lincoln sixth (5lb higher than today); 12lb better with Battle Of Marathon.
BFTX Heavens Guest
A fifth Richard Fahey runner, won the 2015 International at Ascot; 33 lengths off the Lincoln winner last year but second in big-field Bunbury Cup in July.
BCEF Dream Walker
Three wins from four including fine form at Galway Festival
BCEF George Cinq
Class 3 winner at Doncaster for Michael Bell. Winner again at Doncaster since moving to George Scott.
F Highland Colori
Doesn’t tick many boxes these days and modest strike rate (1-22) in last three years.
YOB IS THE ITALIAN JOB AT FONTWELL
2.40 Fontwell Conditions are right for good-ground-winner The Italian Yob, who likes this in-between trip and who’s down in the handicap after struggling through the winter bogs.
3.20 Wetherby What a brace of bridesmaids! Magic Dancer has been tried in blinkers, tongue-tie and cheekpieces but still contrives to ‘get beat’, with figures of 2223 in the last 14 months.
Stay Out Of Court is another who has his trainer reaching for the aids. Butvfirst-time cheekpieces couldn’t do the trick on the last day and he took his figures to 223223.
Tap Knight has dropped a stone in the last year with only a glimpse of form to show for it. Little Bruce is taken back in grade after his hat-trick bid was halted by a step up to class 3.
But the longer trip is a big encouragement on breeding for 5.0 BETDAQ offer Robintheaulad, whose yard is knocking at the door in every race it contests, with current figures of 42221, still standing.
4.10 Fontwell Carnspindle, a 3.7 BETDAQ offer this morning, has been cleverly campaigned over 16-19f to inject some speed into her. Now she is raised in trip to just short of two and threequarter miles, we can expect her stamina-packed breeding to come through.
SKY’S THE LIMIT FOR THIS BANKER
6.45 Newcastle The Sky Is Blazing tonight! William Haggas, who is 11-18 (61%) on AW, and 2-3 at Newcastle (67%) unwraps a stable gem for the turf season here, a sister to Endless Time (six wins out of seven, including the Lancashire Oaks).
At 160,000 euros as a foal, the Sea The Stars filly shot up to 240,000 guineas at the Tattersalls yearling sales of October, 2015, missed out on a two-year-old career but is reckoned nailed on this evening on her belated debut.
‘Could be anything,’ as they say. I got a shade over evens, expecting her to be odds on by the ‘off.’
7.15 Newcastle Standing-dish on the new Tapeta track, Testa Rossa has run in 11 consecutive races at Newcastle, coming out on top four times, winning through the ranks from class 6 in October to class 5 in November, class 4 in January, shrugging off 16lb in penalties. Tasty win and place at 11.0 (but not second again, please!)
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 20 points, unless stated)
BET 6pts win THE ITALIAN YOB (2.40 Fontwell)
BET 5pts win and place ROBINTHAULAD (3.20 Wetherby)
BET 7.5pts win CARNSPINDLE (4.10 Fontwell)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) THE SKY IS BLAZING (6.45 Newcastle)
BET 2pts win and place TESTA ROSSA (7.15 Newcastle)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
