LONG-SHOTS TO WIN CHAMPIONSHIPS: All-Weather Championships finals day at Newcastle plus the Vase at Lingfield, hard work for punters but BETDAQ value to the rescue: 10.0, 10.5, 14.0, 17.0 and 22.0 outsiders in Daqman’s bets.
THREE-STAR SATURDAY: Flat turf is back tomorrow with the Queen’s Cup at Musselburgh, plus jumping with the stayers’ final at Haydock and Ladies National day at Fairyhouse.
NEWCASTLE: ORNE IS THE NAP
⭕ 1.18 Newcastle (1m 3-y-o) Highest quality of the races here on this champions day, or it should be, as it commands Listed status and a couple of recent winners for John and Thady Gosden have stepped up and won in Group 3.
As a Listed, we should be able to use ratings for a bet, while checking out any improver; the field is still only three, six of them with one to four appearances.
Orne (103) and Room Service (102) are well clear but with Team Gosden in the best form of 1010133; their last two Newcastle runners were winners.
BETDAQ 3.4 offer, Orne was Horris Hill winner last autumn, and third in the Spring Cup at Lingfield three weeks back.
Silent Age has been kept to a learning process in lower class, boasting victory in the ‘European Road To The Kentucky Derby’ test at Kempton in February, the merit of which is doubtful.
SPARTAN ARMY BIG IMPROVER
⭕ 1.53 Newcastle (Marathon) We’re into handicap company and a very open contest; if the Northumberland Plate is any guide, you need a double-figure draw.
But that coincides with the top of the handicap, and the first one vulnerable is Citizen General, 7lb worse off for his defeat of wide-running Duty Of Care at Kempton and now drawn 2.
Duty Of Care was also involved in the Marathon Trial at Lingfield on the first of the month; slowly away, ran in snatches, fifth.
Spartan Army (from 7 here) and Prydwen (11) are set to dead-heat on their revised marks after that race but Spartan Army is an Improver, big time.
Vaguely Royal (3rd) is the one who now gets a bit of help from the handicapper and the one draw should not be a negative over this trip.
Kyle Of Lochalsh is a beautiful spot to see, and the horse of that name has a nice place in the handicap for a shrewd trainer, Hughie Morrison.
Max Vega (12) and Tyson Fury (10) are well exposed after 26 and 18 runs respectively over the years. Tyson’s stable is currently 0-17.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 6.2 Spartan Army, 7.2 Vaguely Royal, 10.5 Kyle Of Lochalsh.
SOMMELIER TO TIP THE BOTTLE
⭕ 2.25 Newcastle (6f 3yo) Low numbers do best and Havana Ball (gate 1) drops from an unlucky run, third, in a Chantilly (Polytrack) Listed to this class-2 handicap.
The Irish raider Tarsus (2) has stepped up a gear on the Dundalk circuit this year (raised 16lb) but this is his handicap debut.
Blue Prince (lost position from stall 8) did well at Newcastle on the first day of the year, when he got up to beat the 1 and 2 installed Sommelier and the quirky Bazball. Sommelier is 4lb better off for half a length
📈 BETDAQ value 3.6 Sommelier, 22 Havana Ball
⭕ 4.10 Newcastle (Middle Distance) Hopefully, I’ve found some improvers today. But wherever you look in the form book, Penzance stands out for the star prize here of £103k. BETDAQ 6.1.
LINGFIELD: INSPIRITUS VALUE
⭕ 2.05 Lingfield (AW Vase Middle Distance) Charlie Johnston was unlucky with the 2023 favourite (Outbreak) in this, when he was carried right at the start but beaten little more than a length at the finish. He tries again today with front-runner Wadacre Gomez, who has form with plenty of these.
Low stalls (2 and 4) have won this in its two seasons, and Wadacre Gomez (out of 2 today) could improve on his 4th in the Trial on the first of this month.
Last year’s winner of the final from 4, beating Qaasid in 5 by a length with Outbreak a short-head third, Diderot was just behind Wadacre Gomez in that Trial.
‘Gomez’ had been eased down at Wolverhampton to beat Al Rafaa, Civil Law and Polling Day.
That leaves his arch-rival Inspiritus (stall 6). They were one-two at Chelmsford on the first day of February; the differences today: Inspiritus is 6lb better off and James Doyle takes over.
📈 BETDAQ value 6.6 Inspiritus, 14 Wadacre Gomez
BORGI FOR A DOYLE DOUBLE
⭕ 2.40 Lingfield (AW Vase 1m) Cephalus is 122111 after climbing 26lb up the AW ratings ladder, here with a 5lb penalty for winning within seven days so 2lb well in on his future rating but with his winning streak pegged to class 5.
Dingle has been third in this the last two years, lacking a finish. Borgi and Gincident, one-two at Southwell, a neck apart, three weeks ago, are now reassessed to run a dead-heat but James Doyle could make 2lb difference on our jockey ratings.
Ruth Carr is in good form and her CD winner Darwell Lion looks the part off his mark 5lb lower than when taking a big-field Kempton handicap, but the one stall is always off-putting.
The Crisfords are AW kings and appear to have prepared Court Of Session for this decent prize; too fresh the last day.
📈 BETDAQ value 10 Borgi, 17 Court Of Session
⭕ 3.15 Lingfield (AW Vase Marathon) Delete shorter Flat races and hurdles, and one for amateur riders, and you are left with two-mile Dundalk AW form for Riyami of 111.
The Irish raider is another Improver of the day for a total rise of 43lb since November. BETDAQ 7.2 this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.18 Newcastle (win 20, nap)
BET 8pts win ORNE
1.53 Newcastle (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 10pts win SPARTAN ARMY
BET 8pts win VAGUELY ROYAL
BET 5pts win KYLE OF LOCHALSH
2.05 Lingfield (win 22)
BET 4pts win INSPIRITUS
BET 1.5pts win and place WADACRE GOMEZ
2.25 Newcastle (win 22)
BET 8pts win SOMMELIER
BET 1pt win and place HAVANA BALL
2.40 Lingfield (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 5pts win BORGI
BET 3pts win and place COURT OF SESSION
3.15 Lingfield (win 30)
BET 5pts win RIYAMI
4.10 Newcastle (win 20)
BET 4pts win PENZANCE
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