12 MEETINGS IN TWO DAYS: Daqman works through six meetings today (one in Ireland) and six tomorrow, hoping to find the best bets in the better-quality races. Today:
MISSILE! That could be the second leg of a Musselburgh double bid by William Haggas.
BULLET! But what’s going to win the Brighton Bullet. Daqman hopes a big-odds three-year-old will oblige.
BANKER! The banker is tonight at Newmarket, where cheeky chappy Frankie Dettori has a dazzling ride.
ALL ABOARD THE SATURDAY SPECIAL: Look out tomorrow as Daqman returns to the search for big-race value and the attack on Pricewise of the Racing Post (season’s scores Daqman 63, Pricewise 27).
HOT HAGGAS DOUBLE DISH IN SCOTLAND
3.30 and 4.00 Musselburgh August is a wicked month. Certainly for William Haggas already. I’d only just complained that he, and one or two others, were down on their percentages this season, before he served up this sequence from August 1:
+ William Haggas 311112143001113
Haggas is at Musselburgh (2), Brighton and Newmarket today. At Musselburgh his return for regular 700-mile round trips is an 80% strike-rate with two-year-olds and 43% with older horses.
His pilot on these winning sorties is Graham Gibbons, with a consistent 33% as a combo in the past four seasons.
So I shall back the Haggas-Gibbons raiders, Symposium (3.30) and Dawn Missile (4.00), stop at a winner, at 3.75 and 6.2 respectively on BETDAQ as I write.
We know we are getting value (the BETDAQ orange in each race adds up to 106-7%) and, with the second leg at the bigger price, you can back the second horse with the same profit-yield plus cover of the opening stake, and also put a pound on the double, just in case (see staking plan below).
YOU’RE IN THE PINK AT 10.5 ON BETDAQ
4.10 Brighton Bullet We’ve had the Brighton Mile and the Challenge Cup this week; both slowly run. Now here’s the sprint, with more showers forecast.
That should suit the 2013 winner, Noverre To Go, who seems still to have the the legs for it at the age of 10, having returned to winning form over CD in June. He’s 17lb lower than he was in 2013.
But the Ron Harris stable also runs Vincentti, only a pound higher than when winning here last August; that, too, was with cut in the ground.
Winner of this race last year Pour La Victoire, is claimed off to nullify a remaining 6lb rise in the weights for back-to-back wins in May.
Trainer Tony Carroll runs two more: Time Medicean, who has failed to score since 2012, and Evanescent, who also scored back-to-back wins in the Spring but has been dropped 8lb. They were only claiming races.
Three-year-olds have a good record in this, including winning two years running in 2008-9, so 10.5 on BETDAQ this morning looked tasty about the Windsor winner of the first of the month, Pink Martini. Your alternative is backing stables: but Carroll or Harris?
STAY ON RIGHT SIDE OF WELD JUVENILE
5.55 Tipperary A Coolmore-sponsored two-year-olds’ Listed, but Ger Lyons has stopped odds-on shots from Aidan O’Brien in the last two years.
He goes for the hat-trick here with Boyfriend Brian, and I can’t find a Coolmore-bred winner of this even though O’Brien has won it three times in the decade.
‘Brian’ came out quickly after scoring on the first of July and he’s had a bit of break after his second success.
O’Brien’s Capri, on the other hand, is back only six days after scoring from the front at Galway, when long odds on.
Another Galway winner at the start of the festival – so well enough rested 11 days on – was Right Honourable and he’s the colt I’m most attracted to on the grounds that he has a stable provenance, his family – and, therefore, his needs and constitution – very well known.
Dermot Weld does not hide his excitement at having a son of Famous Name (21 winners for the trainer) out of the mare Agnetha, a line that’s blessed his Curragh yard.
Weld could well break the Lyons and O’Brien hold on this race. I certainly want to follow Right Honourable, until results put him in his place, though maybe that place is at the very top.
I confounded myself with stats yesterday. When all is said and done, balancing the ‘for and against’ remains, and yesterday I chose the wrong edge of the debate.
Equally, today I could warn myself off Right Honourable by arguing that only he and Boyfriend Brian have no Group entries for two-year-olds (the others are all well entered up in Group 1 and 2).
Right Honourable looks a second-season animal, as so often the case with Weld, and the trainer has a poor strike-rate of only 1-18 with juveniles on this course. Conclusion: reduce stakes.
ROSE IS A DAZZLING DETTORI BANKER
7.45 Newmarket Another one here where you’d think the trainer had the advantage of knowing the family from their mutual success: John Gosden, trainer of Raven’s Pass, now saddles his daughter, Dazzling Rose.
Dazzling Rose and City Chic have come right away from them in the BETDAQ orange this morning (10.0 bar two) and, as I’ve been saying, and as yesterday with Stellar Mass and Bondi Beach, you end up – despite weighing a conundrum of stats and facts – choosing between two sides of the arguement.
With the Gosden provenance, the recent course and distance success, and Frankie Dettori, Dazzling Rose should beat one returning from a year off and a winner only on AW, and whose trainer has just saddled four consecutive beaten favourites.
DAQMAN’S BETS (1 to 9 for strength; 10 would be a banker)
BET 7pts win SYMPOSIUM (3.30 Musselburgh), if lose 6pts win DAWN MISSILE (4.00 Musselburgh), and 1pt win double the two
BET 2pts win and place PINK MARTINI (4.10 Brighton)
BET 4pts win RIGHT HONOURABLE (5.55 Tipperary)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) DAZZLING ROSE (7.45 Newmarket)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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