DREAM IRISH WINNER AT 5-2: Daqman landed two returns yesterday for the second day running when, following 2-1 and 11-10 winners on Wednesday, he named Sir Dreamalot (WON 5-2) at Tipperary, and Snookered (2nd 12-1 from 21.0).
NEWMARKET DOUBLE WHAMMY: Today Daqman plays Russian roulette with the two-year-olds to honour his analysis of autumn juveniles racing with bets in that category today, including a Newmarket double whammy and three lays.
DAQMAN BITES THE BULLET: Look out tomorrow for Daqman’s Saturday special survey of five meetings, including Goodwood, Newmarket and the Beverley Bullet. Sure to be long shots!
TWO-YEAR-OLDS: SPATIAL AWARENESS
His money where his mouth is. Yesterday Daqman analysed the pros and cons – and booby traps – in backing two-year-olds. He named 20 two-year-old races, including nurseries, over today and Saturday.
Now here’s his own view of which rules might apply to some of those 20 races, starting today on the July Course, where there are three consecutive juvenile tests:
2.00 Newmarket Sir Michael Stoute’s returns with his two-year-olds (class 4 and higher) in the last fortnight is 1011. And the big returner in this is Ryan Moore in his comeback ride – his only one of the day – on the stable’s Spatial.
Spatial is by Derby winner New Approach out of the 1,000 Guineas runner-up Spacious who was third to superstar Goldikova in a Group 1 on today’s course.
Our notes on two-year-olds yesterday suggest that she has a huge advantage in having raced, but that there is concern that her real attitude to racing will be revealed if she is let down and put under pressure on his second start, always the most informative.
Whether that attitude is positive or negative depends on the temperament of the horse, and the skills of the trainer.
Flying North, Sobetsu and Forest Angel are bred to do well as two-year-olds; Sobetsu’s trainer has a 35% strike-rate (wins to runs) with his juveniles this season.
BET Spatial, maximum stakes.
2.35 Newmarket Checking our guidelines, we find that, in our second two-year-old race, Vanity Queen actually stepped up on her form between races one and two, but that Winston C has raced only once and his winning reputation first time at Yarmouth is on the line.
However, placed horses behind Vanity Queen at Nottingham lost class-4 and class-5 maidens after that, and I’ll take Frankie Dettori to dictate this race and land me a Double Whammy.
BET Winston C (2.26 offers) and LAY Vanity Queen.
3.10 Newmarket Our third two-year-old test today and the one that proves the rule, with two debut winners in the last three years.
What worries me about the paper favourite Law And Order is that he was also at the front of the market on debut, so his failure raises a question mark, alongside any claim that he has the advantage of a run.
The newcomer backed against him is Rummani who, along with Amlad and Elucidation, is well entered up in Group-1 two-year-old ‘classics.’
Elucidation’s sire, Oasis Dream, has a 39% winners-runners strike rate with juveniles, Sassoferrato’s 36%, Original Choice’s 33%, Mandarin’s and Amland’s sire 32%, Arcano’s 30%, all better than Law And Order’s.
But the biggest potential among the sires is Dubawi 41% (Rummani) and Dark Angel 40% (Nicky Baby). Least likely winner is Splash Around (Nathaniel 17%).
BET Elucidation (15.5), Rummani (3.05). LAY Law And Order and (for a place) Splash Around.
BLAINE TAKEN TO BOUNCE BACK AT 27.0
4.05 Thirsk Quality usually comes through in this class 3, with no winner carrying less than 9st 7lb. A high stall is recokoned essential.
Blaine has spent almost his entire career in class 2, is down in grade here and down 7lb on his Wokingham-weight level of last year despite scoring on the soft at Epsom in June.
Eccleston won this race last year off the same mark, and the David O’Meara yard is firing again. He is a worthy 5.9 favourite in a modest race.
But Blaine is going to bounce back one of these days and 27.0 doesn’t account for his many good runs in big handicaps, including success three times in class 2 since the heady days of his Group-2 heights at York.
STREET-WISE STABLE CAN LAND SILVER
7.25 Hamilton (Ladbrokes Lanark Silver Bell) Young horses prevail in this; none over the age of four; with three-year-olds going for a four-timer today after a hat-trick trained by Mark Johnston.
The usual Johnston blanket decs are absent; he has just the one starter, Renfrew Street, who has already tried all-aged company and failed as favourite at Ayr in June, but there were excuses.
Lord Yeats tried it last month and went down narrowly to an older horse. Renfrew Street, Lord Yeats and Cape Of Glory are all likely pacesetters.
My verdict is that Renfrew Street’s Ayr defeat when favourite came only three days after a neck second (giving weight to the winner) at Beverley, and he can be forgiven that run.
Renfrew Street has had a holiday, is unexposed at the trip, and 10.0 in the BETDAQ orange looked tasty for a trainer who targets the race and has just one bolt rather than the quiver of arrows he usually strings together.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes and targets as stated)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) SPATIAL (2.00 Newmarket)
DOUBLE WHAMMY: BET 10pts to win 10pts WINSTON C and LAY to win 10pts VANITY QUEEN (2.35 Newmarket)
BET (to win 20): 10pts win RUMMANI and 2pts win and place ELUCIDATION, and LAY to win 10pts LAW AND ORDER (3.10 Newmarket)
BET 6pts to win 30 ECCLESTON and 1pt win and place BLAINE (4.05 Thirsk)
BET (to win 30) 3pts win and place RENFREW STREET (7.25 Hamilton)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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