FINAL WEEK: CAN DAQMAN PROTECT HUGE LEAD? The Breeders Cup starts tonight with Daqman 274 points clear of Pricewise (+121 against -153) to a single-unit in the 2018 Flat season which ends tomorrow week at Doncaster. The returns score is now 86-25 to Daqman, who has a supernap in England and one in America today.
BETDAQ 36.0 ‘HIDDEN HORSE’ AT NEWMARKET: It’s a massive day’s racing as Samcro sets out on the Champion Hurdle trail at Down Royal (1.45) after Daqman’s first bet at Newmarket (1.40) on an afternoon when he advises following the stables in form, and spots a ‘hidden horse’ at 36.0. He says that some yards seem only to be marking time as the season draws to a close.
TURF COURSE GIVES RAIDERS THEIR CHANCE: Yielding turf ground at Churchill Downs, Kentucky, suggests that conditions will favour English and Irish raiders, starting with a good Call in the juvenile sprint. It’s all about two-year-olds there for the most part today.
ALDANA STABLE IS IN TOP FORM
1.40 Newmarket (Bosra Sham Fillies Listed) The Simon Crisford plan I reported to you earlier in the week has its first leg when Aldana (5.9 BETDAQ) runs in this (followed by Mannaal in Saturday’s similar race on the same course).
Crisford took the Bosra Sham last year with an 8-1 shot, yet so confidently ridden, she won readily.
Aldana’s main rivals in the BETDAQ market today are Lady Aria (Michael Bell), second in a Group 3 at Salisbury; Gypsy Spirit (Tom Clover), Group 3 seventh at Ayr; and Kurious (Henry Candy), Group 2 ninth in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot.
But is your money safe with Candy, Clover and Bell? Are they just marking time now? While Crisford is currently striking at 23%, his trio of rivals have all failed to score a single winner in the last fortnight: Bell 0-23, Candy 0-20, Clover 0-3.
In fact, my man in the long grass reports that – in the current revival of the Mick Channon yard (26% hits) – the biggest danger may be Chynna, three times in the first four in Group races and working well again: 7.4 offers.
2.15 Newmarket Three-year-olds going for a four-timer in this have only two chances, Kasbaan and Livvys Dream, but they seem to be the best two chances in the race!
Owen Burrows, striking at near-30%, has worked wonders with Kasbaan, thanks to veterinary help.
After wind surgery – tweaked again since – Kasbaan was a ready winner at Lingfield, turning over a Godolphin odds-on shot which had won its previous race eased down. I took 4.1 on BETDAQ.
PERFECT SUMMER ‘HIDDEN HORSE’
2.50 Newmarket Trainers with mixed yards, operating on the Flat and over Jumps, usually win this with (in three years out of six) big, strong gallopers off around 10st.
‘Hidden horse’ may be the mare, Perfect Summer, third last autumn in the Gordon Carter (2m) at Ascot before an inconspicuous return to hurdles.
Perfect Summer had a long break and recent preps over shorter should have tuned her up for a tilt at this: BETDAQ 36.0 though David Egan’s booked.
3.25 Newmarket Harry Fry has had two winners and a second – one disqualified – with his last five runners and Winston C sounds like a good starter to the feast at Churchill Downs.
Winston C is back to his winning trip after a recent second over further in a higher grade.
Much of his run of defeats was in class 2 and his switch from Michael Bell brought an early return to form with runner-up spot a week ago.
The Harry Fry winner that was disqualified gifted a Newbury race to War Brigade so Harry should know all about that one and will be pleased to see that War Brigade has to carry a 6lb penalty.
GOOD CALL IN THE BREEDERS CUP
Get in early and cover yourself. That might have been Muhammad Ali’s message to punters as one of the biggest racing shows on earth starts tonight at his birthplace, Louisville, Kentucky.
The yielding turf will be against the home team and could make the raiding Brits and Irish a good Call from the very first turf race.
Tonight will tell us what to guard against at the main event tomorrow and where to try to land our best punting punches.
7.21 Churchill Downs (Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint) Beaten only about a neck against older horses in the Abbaye, Soldier’s Call (who earlier stopped Well Done Fox in the Flying Childers) could be another landmark on the map of Archie Watson’s career on yielding terrain in Kentucky.
Soldier’s would normally be touted as well drawn in stall 2 but there are reports trackside that the slowest ground could be low.
Since his win at Chantilly was on good to soft and his Abbaye glory was on ‘French good ground’, which would be good to soft in UK, I think we have no worries: I took 4.8 in the exchanges.
GROUNDS FOR A BET ON EAST
8.00 Churchill Downs (Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf) The chances of Kevin Ryan’s unbeaten improver East (BETDAQ 9.0) have been boosted by a gate-14 draw, whereas Aidan O’Brien’s exposed Just Wonderful (6.4) may have gone west from stall 4. It’s all down to the effect of the ground again.
8.40 Churchill Downs (Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Dirt) The bookies want you to bet on Dirt, which is much trickier if you don’t follow American form. That’s why Pricewise starts here.
Restless Rider is 2-2 on the track and won a Grade 1 at Keeneland on the last day. She will do for me at 5.1 exchanged this morning.
9.22 Churchill Downs (Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, colts and geldings) This time the draw in stall 14 has fallen for Aidan O’Brien with Anthony Van Dyck.
As second to Quorto (National Stakes) and third to Too Darn Hot (Dewhurst), he represents Classic juvenile form over here.
WINNER TO SPOIL THEIR GAME
10.05 Churchill Downs (Breeders Cup Juvenile Dirt, colts and geldings) The winner should come from the unbeaten pair Game Winner and Complexity, both with trainers who have won this before, Chad Brown and Bob Baffert.
If only Shug McGaughey’s Code Of Honour breaks better..! He stumbled leaving the stalls, allowing Complexity to make all at Belmont.
I think we’ll leave them to their private battle, and side with Game Winner, who slammed the highly regarded six-length Del Mar scorer, Gunmetal Gray, more than four lengths when they met at Santa Anita.
10.43 Churchill Downs (Dirt Marathon) Jamie Osborne continues his Toast of New York international exploits, making his first attempt at long distance (1m 6f).
Toast’s best year was 2014 when he landed the UAE Derby and was beaten a nose in the Breeders Cup Classic, but he was back to form on the last day, second in a Grade 3 here at Churchill Downs over his usual 9-10f trip. I’ll leave that won to the Osborne fan club.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.40 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 4pts win ALDANA
BET 3pts win CHYNNA
2.15 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 6.5pts win KASBAAN
2.50 Newmarket (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 2.5pts win and place PERFECT SUMMER
3.25 Newmarket (Supernap)
BET 20pts win WINSTON C
7.21 Churchill Downs (win 30)
BET 7.75pts win SOLDIERS CALL
8.00 Churchill Downs (win 20)
BET 3.75pts win JUST WONDERFUL
BET 2.5pts win EAST
8.40 Churchill Downs (win 20)
BET 5pts win RESTLESS RIDER
9.22 Churchill Downs (win 20)
BET 7.25pts win ANTHONY VAN DYCK
10.05 Churchill Downs (Supernap)
BET 20pts win GAME WINNER
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