SUPER NAP BAGS FIVE WINNERS IN A ROW: Five bets. Five winners. That’s the record of Daqman’s new Super Nap, specials carefully selected but well heralded in this column. Yesterday’s on the first day of Newmarket, Elarqam (WON 11-8), was headed ‘Anything Goes For Elarqam.’ At 20-point win single stakes, the five would have netted you 137 points:
WON 13-8 CAPE BYRON
WON 10-11 CARAVAGGIO
WON 5-2 LAGOSTOVEGAS
WON 4-9 GABR
WON 11-8 ELARQAM
40 POINTS PROFIT ON NEWMARKET DAY 1: Daqman landed four returns for a profit of around 40 points on the opening day at Newmarket with:
WON 7-2 RASTRELLI (win)
WON 11-8 ELARQAM (20-point super nap)
2ND 16-1 KNIGHT OWL (win and place)
3RD 14-1 BRONZE ANGEL (win and place, 25.0 BETDAQ)
DAQMAN IS LEADING PRICEWISE 75-18: Daqman reduces his stakes today, with storms sweeping across the country this morning, but has to take on Pricewise in the 1.50 and 2.25 Newmarket. The scores are 75-18 to Daqman, who is 303 points clear.
RUBY LOOKS ANOTHER GOSDEN GEM
2.25 Newmarket John Gosden’s form in this race in the last five years is 13411. He has two runners today, with fortune favouring the three-year-olds (they are 8 from 10).
His second-season runner is Elas Ruby (Frankie Dettori), who could be thereabouts on her Group-2 third in July, but she has won only at Listed level and only over 1m 2f. There are two more furlongs to travel today.
Sir Michael Stoute, who has won this twice in nine years, saddles the favourite, Mori, the Frankel-Midday filly who would have no problem in this company if she ran up to her Ribblesdale second (to Coronet) but the weather is a worry.
Just when we got a bit of settled ground yesterday, punters now face yet another weekend in the rain, a spoiler for calculations.
Don’t change your methods but be prepared to reduce stakes and watch out for drifters, as going concerns get through to the market.
The improver in this Group 3 is Fleur Forsyte. In two leaps – thanks to the application of a hood – she has gone up 24lb, culminating in her capture of the Galtres Stakes at York on softish ground (Daniel Muscutt deservedly keeps the mount).
But Elas Ruby has not been standing still. She has been raised 17lb since scoring at Newbury in June, when none other than Fleur Forsyste was last of eight. Fleur was still green than but can she now turn around more than 12 lengths with Ruby?
I had Elbereth in my horses-to-follow list in the Spring but, after second in the Dahlia Stakes on today’s course and then fourth in the Coronation Cup, she has continued to be a nearly horse.
It’s a hard race, much riding on the weather, but the 7.6 Elas Ruby makes the decision for me over Mori and Fleur Forsyte, in that I can bet both win and place.
HERE’S ONE TO SCOTCH NYALETI
3.00 Newmarket (Rockfel Stakes) First of the Group two-year-old races which we will examine in the next three days, this one the least likely indicator for the future.
Nell Gwyn winner, Music Show (2009), was probably the best of the recent bunch. Aidan O’Brien has won it twice since 2007 but both fillies never scored again.
Only 2.15 points separate the first four in the BETDAQ market, early mouse, indicating another tough choice to be made. Butterscotch, Juliet Capulet and Nyaleti have all front-run so a tough test likely for the horses too!
Collateral form is there to help, if we can trust it on the soft ground: Clemmie beat Butterscotch two-and-threequarter lengths in July and Nyaleti one and threequarters later the same month.
If the ground had been dry, I would have jumped on to dual-winner Gavota, who is totally unexposed, and has a fabulous action but, after a break, Butterscotch (5.0 on BETDAQ) is the crunch bet.
IT’S MUSTASHRY BY A WHISKER
3.35 Newmarket (Joel Stakes) Custom Cut won this Group 2 in 2014 and it would be unusual to see either of the two eight-year-olds (the other one is Sovereign Debt) take this, with seven in the decade going to ages three and four and none over the age of six.
Sovereign Debt landed a hat-trick in the Spring, including the Sandown Mile, before the youngsters were getting going, and Custom Cut has a poor strike-rate these days.
Sir Michael Stoute (Mustashry) and Aidan O’Brien (Sir John Lavery and Whitecliffsofdover) have both been successful in this race recently.
Sir John Lavery has so far been short of Group level, winning only a Listed, but I don’t see how Beat The Banker can be a shorter price than Mustashry.
Beat The Bank won easily at Goodwood, three lengths up on Make Time, but that one was stone last, eight lengths behind Mustashry at York (Sovereign Debt third).
Zonderland has twice been placed at Group-2 level but has also twice been withdrawn when the ground turned soft. Or these reasons, Mustashry at 5.5 has to be the nap. But it could be close-run thing.
4.10 Newmarket Thrave was a big market order, early mouse on BETDAQ, in from 5.7 to 3.7 to beat the Group performer, Coat of Arms, second in the Futurity, fourth in the National Stakes. I’ll ‘cheat’ and put them both in Daq Multiples with the nap.
TRAINER FELLOWES IS ON FIRE..
5.20 Newmarket (Silver Cambridgeshire) We’re looking for clues (the draw, the ground, the stable form) to tomorrow’s Cambridgeshire proper.
Form for the three-year-olds, who have scored five times in seven years, is very tight with, for instance Afaak and Mountain Angel, one-two on the soft at Doncaster in June, are now weighted to dead-heat.
But this is a low-grade contest, masquerading as a class- 2. Only Chiefofchiefs, Addeybb and Afaak have been placed at this level on turf.
Addeybb is lightly raced but lost for the first time since his Spring debut when stepped up beyond a mile. Afaak (8.2 BETDAQ offers) has already scored on soft ground.
Trainer Charlie Fellowes bagged the handicap here yesterday by five lengths with Repercussion, so maybe Chiefofchiefs (14.0) or Fire Tree (23.0, Jamie Spencer booked) can do the business.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points unless stated)
1.50 Newmarket
BET 3.2pts win MUFFRI’HA
BET 2.75pts win TISBUTADREAM
2.25 Newmarket
BET 3pts win and place ELAS RUBY
3.00 Newmarket
BET 4pts win BUTTERSCOTCH
3.35 Newmarket (to win 30 points)
BET 6.6pts win (nap) MUSTASHRY
5.20 Newmarket
BET 2.75pts win AFAAK
BET 1.5pts win and place CHIEFOFCHIEFS
BET 1pt win and place FIRE TREE
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2 x 1pt win doubles Mustashry (3.35 Newmarket) and both Thrave and Coat of Arms (4.10 Newmarket)
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