WINNING NEWMARKET FAVOURITE WAS BIG VALUE ON BETDAQ: Though Daqman’s back and lay, Carolus Magnus (WON 15-8), didn’t always hold the lead at Newmarket yesterday, the collapse in the price had already taken place from the early 5.7 taken on BETDAQ. A huge edge for trading and then more of the same with offers in running down to the minimum as he went ahead down the centre of the track in the final furlong and finished clear. You couldn’t miss a trade.
NOW THE APPLEBY FORM GUIDE TO RECOUP SUPERNAP LOSSES! Earlier, Charlie Appleby turned over the Daqman supernap, leading to strong feelings about today’s Rockfel Stakes on Day 2 of Newmarket! Will revenge be sweet, this time helped by the form of Appleby’s own two-year-olds? The Appleby debate goes on half an hour later when he brings back 2,000 Guinzas runner-up, Master Of The Seas.
CAIRN ANOTHER FLYER FOR KEVIN
⚠️ HEADS UP Terrestrial television on ITV4 covers the first two races at York today as well as four races at Newmarket. I shall follow the low numbers in the opening sprint at York strengthened by two pace horses.
But Cambridgeshire punters are still looking for draw clues at Newmarket after a farcical situation in the big two-year-old test yesterday when six runners split into three groups!
⭕ 2.05 York Mr Wagyu (stall 4 today), who was winner of the Stewards Sprint at Goodwood, raced close up and led two out in the Ayr Gold Cup last week. He’s had 14 races this year and has never before been weighted off today’s 100 rating.
Cairn Island also raced with the leader and took it up two out when he last won here at York and he also ran a cracker to score on the July Course the last day. Difference is that Cairn Island has been seen just three times this year and has a total of only eight starts on his entire CV.
Kevin Ryan, who won that Ayr Gold Cup with Bielsa, outgunning Mr Wagyu, seemingly has another autumn speed star coming out of the one stall here.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 5.4 Cairn Island
PENNYMOOR OR PENNYLESS..?
⭕ 2.25 Newmarket (Princess Royal Stakes) Forbearance also takes us back to York and the Ebor meeting, where she showed further progress to win in a time only about one second slower than the Yorkshire Oaks.
Domino Darling was an unlucky runner-up, carried right but beaten only a nose. The Musidora fifth to Snowfall, Glenartney, was third (withdrawn today).
Sayyida, a dual winner in the early summer, has been beaten twice, stepped up to Listed and Group 3.
Mystery Angel has failed in five Group races since taking a Listed at the Guineas meeting in May. Second in the Oaks but jockey needed binoculars to keep track of the runaway winner, Snowfall.
Golden Pass was second to the Park Hill scorer Free Wind at Doncaster (1m 6f) having beaten her earlier over today’s 1m 4f.
John Gosden has won this race four times in the last nine seasons but leaves in only Pennymoor, who was right out the back behind Forbearance.
She had been impressive at Kempton and, assuming something was wrong at York, might bounce back at big odds here.
BETDAQ value 5.7 Forbearance, 18.5 Pennymoor
SUPERNAP BACK IN LINE FOR GLORY
⚠️ HEADS UP There’s no stopping Charlie Appleby, whose Modern Games brought down the Trident missile sent over from France for yesterday’s Group-3 for juvenile colts and geldings.
Though he doesn’t have a runner in the Rockfel today, the form of one of his best Godolphin two-year-olds is a strong pointer to the winner. He ‘owes’ me a supernap after his defeat of Trident, so here goes:
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket (Rockfel Stakes) Majestic Glory earned a mark of 100 when winning the Sweet Solera on the July Course, one of the key races in my star-winners list on Monday.
Oscula and Hello You are thereabouts but highly rated for defeat rather than victory, Oscula for her third and fourth behind Sandrine in summer Group 2 and Group 3 races, and Hello You, third to Sandrine just in front of Oscula on the July Course.
Both are now well exposed, whereas Frankel-filly Majestic Glory, Girl On Film, Jumbly and Kawida are not. Any of them could improve past the ‘form’ fillies but Majestic Glory is ‘the one most likely to’.
Though we can’t truly quantify the collateral form, Wild Beauty, the Sweet Solera runner-up to Majestic Glory, earned rave notices at Woodbine last week.
One of an incredible four-timer for Charlie Appleby between Belmont (Yibir wins the Jockey Club Derby) and a Woodbine hat-trick, Wild Beauty went clear, easing down, in a £138k Group-1 for 2YO fillies.
I’m hoping that today you will see the value of that Monday list of mine with a Majestic run by Ryan Moore on Beauty’s July Course conqueror.
Girl On A Film was heavily punted in the week, despite just one run on the CV so far. Still a big raw sort, she is one for next year, and a marker for another potentially fine season with fillies for Ralph Beckett in 2022.
Jumbly has done nothing wrong in lower grade, while Kawida, noted in my two-year-olds as one to follow after she scored in a class-4 maiden at Haydock, has been withdrawn..
BETDAQ value 3.35 Majestic Glory
GROUNDS FOR LANEQASH COOKIE
⭕ 3.35 Newmarket (Joel Stakes) It’s last-chance saloon for Laneqash to warrant the Fortune Cookies ranks today. Making excuses for beaten horses is one path to the workhouse (I mean apart from heating and cooking with gas this winter).
But the Laneqash form reads as if soft ground is anathema to the son of Cable Bay (progeny’s best results are on good and good to firm). Laneqash was last of 12 on heavy and third of six on good to soft.
His results on top of the ground (122) include second to Sacred in the Hungerford in August, despite losing his lead-fore shoe.
Benbatl won this race in 2019 and can’t be dismissed entirely though aged seven and demoted 8lb in the ratings despite a double at Meydan at the turn of the year.
Main threat to Laneqash is that man Appleby again with Master Of The Seas, runner-up in the 2,000 Guineas, though we now know that race was pretty much a binload of lemmings barring the one-two.
Of the 12 others behind Poetic Flare and Master Of The Seas that Classic day at Newmarket, only one (yes, just the one) has been successful since (in a class 3).
Master Of The Seas was only narrowly defeated that day and is back to form at home; assuming he needs the run, but recognising there are plans to go for the Breeders Cup, he must go close today.
BETDAQ value 2.38 Master Of The Seas, 5.9 Laneqash
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.05 York (win 20)
BET 4.5pts win CAIRN ISLAND
2.25 Newmarket (each to win 20, place 5)
BET 4.25 FORBEARANCE
BET 1.25pts win and place PENNYMOOR
3.00 Newmarket (supernap to win 50)
BET 22pts win MAJESTIC GLORY
3.35 Newmarket (win 20, win 3.5 stakes saver)
BET 3.5pts win LANEQASH
BET 2.5pts win MASTER OF THE SEAS
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
