5-1 DAQMAN STRIKE: 8.0 TAKEN ON BETDAQ: Daqman is back on the winner-a-day trail, showing a profit on the day yesterday, the opening of Newmarket, with a second rewarding price in two days staked to win 20.
WON 5-1 RANGER THUNDERBOLT (Thursday, Betdaq 8.0 taken)
WON 10-3 CHIC COLUMBINE (Wednesday)
DAQMAN LEADS 48-27 INTO A BIG WEEKEND: Day 2 at Newmarket and Daqman leads Pricewise 48-27 on winners, and bids for his 80th nap on a big weekend at the HQ tracks of England and France. But first he examines the draw situation, which seems to affect handicap and Group 1 alike.
CAMBRIDGESHIRE DRAW SHOCK
⭕ 3.40 Newmarket tomorrow (Cambridgeshire Handicap) They worry about the draw for the Arc but the bias for the Cambridgeshire could be staggering, if the stats continue.
The last seven winners have come out of 28, 29, 21, 29, 25, 21 and 26 (last year). It was no race for two thirds or more of runners in each field.
Starting prices included 11-1, 12-1, 25-1, 40-1 (twice) and 50-1, with just the one winning favourite, the gallant Lord North in 2019, when the order in by draw exemplifies the strength in the high stalls.
The first five home were out of 29, 15, 32, 28 and 20, with three and four year olds taking four of the five places.
That age group has had four of the last five winners.
Lord North’s race was the last time there were 30 runners. After non-runners, the highest stalls were 28 to 34, so three of the first four (28, 29, 32) were from the extreme seven stalls.
Maximum field this year 35 (stall and rating of the 11 highest drawn)
25 GREEK ORDER (95) Oisin Murphy pick; improver last day; only 5 races.
26 EILEAN DUBH (95) won 20-runner class 3 (York) 11lb lower; 1-8 since.
27 CAROLUS MAGNUS (85) slipped in weights but not won for two years.
28 BOPEDRO (102) winner over a mile but not tried further in three years.
29 MAJESTIC (89) winner of this race last year (good); only 3lb higher.
30 ARQOOB (90) won Sandown 10f (firm) last July; only 6 Flat runs since.
31 CRACK SHOT (88) good-ground improver last day after just five races.
32 HAUNTED DREAM (102) placed John Smith’s Cup, Chesterfield Cup.
33 BOTAS (83) Ex-French mile winner at a lower level on Kempton AW.
34 MERLIN THE WIZARD (96) 7f and 1m 3-4 since June at lower level.
35 ASTRO KING (107) Hunt Cup 2nd, 4th; winner and 2nd big York caps.
STALLS SET THE ARC A FLAME
⭕ 3.05 Longchamp, Sunday (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe) Bad news for followers of Place Du Carrousel, Fantastic Moon, Hukum, Simca Mille, Mr Hollywood and Sisfahan, all allocated a double-figure draw.
Of the last 20 winners, only five have won from the high stalls; 14 came out of gates 2 to 6, so the jockeys on Continuous (7), Ace Impact (8) and Onestoes (9) also seemingly have work to do, though a new cutaway will help.
Even so, the one stall (Westover) is rarely comfortable on any track, and would surely not be the choice of rider Rob Hornby on a hold-up horse!
The double-figure-drawn runners have to chance to luck if they get behind, unless prepared to use up energy early to literally jockey for a position or stick to the outside and rely on their stamina (if they know they have enough) to stay in contention, hoping the field comes back to them.
Christophe Soumillon (Feed The Flame in 2) has his Arc-winning track skills added to a comfy draw and will be delighted to see the colt’s Prix Niel conqueror, Fantastic Moon, flung out wide in 12, though his jockey knows how to win from there, having had the same stall in 2021 on Torquator Tasso.
Frankie Dettori (Free Wind) has breathing space out of 3 to make decisions and Richard Kingscote (Bay Bridge from 6) has the most successful stall in 33 years.
COPPICE TO SCORE FOR FRANKIE
⭕ 1.50 Newmarket today (1m Listed, fillies and mares) STATS Three-year-olds dominate this (7-10) and you could say the same of Newmarket trainers (William Haggas 3, Team Gosden 2; one for Roger Varian).
Though most winners were 10-3 to 8-1 at SP, no favourite figured among them but I think that will change today.
That’s assuming Frankie Dettori has chosen right from the Gosden pair of three-year-olds with Coppice over Queen For You.
The weather forecast suggests it will stay dry, so the ground will be on the firm side, favouring Coppice, the Sandringham winner at Ascot on a similar surface. Each-way price at 6.4.
Charlie Appleby’s winners this week have been largely in class 3 and class 4, even on the opening day at HQ, and he reaches for a hood to effect a better performance from Silver Lady, while Dermot Weld brings cheekpieces with him (replacing visor) to try to stem a frustrating string of nearly performances from Tarawa.
Tarawa’s form is 242320 and has that red flag I’m so fond of stressing: hasn’t won since her maiden almost a year back, always a bad sign.
MEMORIES ARE MADE OF THIS
⭕ 2.25 Newmarket (1m 4f Group 3 fillies and mares) Another Team Gosden hold on a fillies’ prize (3-8), another chance for Frankie Dettori to leave a big meeting on a winning note.
But another race where the Gosdens have two going to post, this time with the supposed second string – Running Lion, ridden by Oisin Murphy – at 108 rated higher than the Dettori mount (101), Sweet Memories.
Sweet Memories has climbed from a class-5 novice to a Listed winner in just three starts but a Running Lion four-timer was achieved in similar manner, class-5 novice to Listed level, but in four wins spread over nine months, and her best form is with cut in the ground.
A third Listed winner, Novakai is a valid alternative to both, second in the Fillies Mile at this time last year and taking on the might of Blue Rose Cen and Warm Heart in French and Yorkshire Oaks this summer.
Sea Theme has followed the same path as Sweet Memories, ending up as Galtres winner the last day on firm, so a big improver who should get her conditions.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 4.4 Sweet Memories, 6.8 Novakai
SHUWARI RATES A SUPERNAP
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket (Rockfel Stakes, 7f 2yo Group 2) See yesterday’s Daqman
Shuwari could be the star that puts the Rockfel back on the map as a marker for next year’s Group 1s, so speedy yet with a pedigree imbued with stamina.
It proved to be a poor Rockfel that Just Wonderful won for Aidan O’Brien (2018) and his dual winner Ylang Ylang flopped in the Moyglare behind Fallen Angel, who had been narrowly beaten by Shuwari at Sandown.
Spiritual has eased since the market opened and wears a hood, not a good sign in this company., while Carla’s Way has had two wind ops and keeps the tongue tied down.
DAQMAN BETS
1.50 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 4pts win and place COPPICE
2.25 Newmarket (win 18)
BET 5pts win SWEET MEMORIES
BET 3pts win NOVAKAI
3.00 Newmarket (supernap)
BET 20pts win SHUWARI
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
WHERE THE BIG WINNERS COME FROM: Four days and seven races of top two-year-old tests are not to be missed, while you spend your time on the Cambridgeshire and Arc de Triomphe form. There could be a legend waiting somewhere among them. Daqman provides the clues in advance.
BOOST FOR NEWMARKET NURSERY BET: One of Daqman’s tips yesterday, Chic Columbine (WON 100-30), gave a big boost to offers of 8.6 on BETDAQ this morning. It’s in the nursery on the opening day of Newmarket this afternoon.
A LEGEND WAITING SOMEWHERE
Two-year-old racing preview
⭕ 3.35 Newmarket today (Somerville Tattersall Stakes, 2yo, 7f) STATS Five out of the last seven winners have been drawn in stall 2. Charlie Appleby and William Buick, who have combined for two of them, now run Legend Of Time.
Their 2021 winner Modern Games went on to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf and – the following season – the French 2,000 Guineas.
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket tomorrow (Rockfel Stakes, 2yo, 7f) STATS Three of the last five winners were drawn 1 or 2. Team Gosden, winners of two of the last six, have Spiritual as a probable tomorrow.
Their 2022 winner Commissioning went on to take the Fillies Mile but did not run as a three-year-old.
And be warned that the race had been an absolute dead-end before that. The nine winners from 2013 To 2021 never scored again, losing a total of 39 times.
⭕ 1.50 Newmarket Saturday (Royal Lodge Stakes 2yo 1m) STATS: Aidan O’Brien 2, Team Gosden 2. Eight winners out of 10 were out of stalls 1, 2, 3, 4. O’Brien has six left in at this stage.
The Foxes (2022) went on to win the Dante as a 3yo but the race hero was Roaring Lion (2017), who also won the Dante, and made four consecutive Group 1 strikes.
⭕ 2.25 Newmarket, Saturday (Cheveley Park Stakes 2yo 6f) STATS Aidan O’Brien has landed four winners in the last seven seasons, but the best of a weaker bunch in the decade, compared with its old popularity, was Andrew Balding’s Alcohol Free (2020), subsequently winner of the Fred Darling, Coronation Stakes, Sussex Stakes and July Cup.
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket, Saturday (Middle Park Stakes 2yo, 6f) STATS Aidan O’Brien has won it three times in seven years but could have done without the first of them, US Navy Flag (2017),who was headlined for a plethora of races, including the Guineas, even the Derby at one stage after adding the Dewhrst to his bag!
But the War Front colt would lose eight times after, including six Group 1 and, brought back to sprinting, win only the 2018 July Cup.
⭕ 1.15 Longchamp, Sunday (Jean-Luc Lagardere 2yo colts 1m) STATS Eight out of 9 at Longchamp won from stalls 1, 2, 3, 4. Andre Fabre 3-8, winning the French 2,000 Guineas the following year with Victor Ludorum (2019).
Sealiway (2020) won the Champion Stakes and Angel Bleu (2021) the Celebration Mile but winners were not plentiful.
⭕ 1.50 Longchamp, Sunday (Marcel Bousac, 1m 2yo fillies) The only Group 1 in France for two-year-old fillies; best of all the trials this weekend, having produced Allez France (1972), Triptych (1984), Midway Lady (1985), Miesque (1986), Salsabil (1989), Finsceal Beo (2006), Zarkava (2007) Found (2014) and Blue Rose Cen (2022).
STATS: Aidan O’Brien (2), Charlie Appleby (2) in the decade; the favourites all blown out since Aidan O’Brien’s short-priced double with Ballydoyle and Found in 2014-15.
IMPROVING BUDGIE TO FLY HOME
⭕ 2.25 Newmarket today (1m nursery) Stormy Waves has just 4lb with which to turn around an easy defeat by Blown Away at Chelmsford so it doesn’t look likely.
Blown Away enjoyed the step up to a mile but the value today is Granny Budgie, who has improved with every race and is expected to stay.
She gave away 3lb at Doncaster when third to Chic Columbine, Daqman’s tip when scoring decisively yesterday.
Lambert had won three out of four at a low level when he tried class 2; he didn’t like it that the surface had turned soft and much will depend today on whether the forecast showers get into the ground.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 3.5 Blown Away, 8.6 Granny Budgie
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket (6f fillies handicap) Gale Force Maya won this in 2021, and landed five prizes, two of them for Listed races, last year but she hasn’t maintained that level of form this term, including when favourite at Pontefract in one of five losing starts.
‘Maya’ tries blinkers first time today, while Kinta – second in a Group 2 last year – adds a hood after wind surgery, highest rated of the three-year-olds.
Executive Decision has been on the premises at today’s level but had to resort to lower grades to get back to winning form on soft ground in August.
I prefer the Frankel filly Frankness who ran well in an Ascot handicap but showed the benefit of a rest when really getting hold of a race at Salisbury the last day and could go on from there. Betdaq Betting Exchange 4.0 taken.
THUNDERBOLT ON A NICE MARK
⭕ 3.35 Newmarket (Somerville Tattersall Stakes, 2yo, 7f) See above.
It’s not beyond belief that the outsider Victory Shout can give stall 2 a sixth victory in eight seasons at a huge 36.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
By Frankel out of a Shamardal mare, he could yet ‘be anything’ after storming clear by nine lengths the last day over a previous five-lengths winner.
Otherwise it’s Gosden v O’Brien v Appleby, the usual triple-header at Group level. Eben Shaddad, Military and Legend Of Time all won green; the market may help you, if you want to choose between them.
⭕ 5.18 Newmarket (1m handicap) Three-year-olds dominate (five out of seven) and a low stall seems essential (gates 1, 2, 3, 4 have together bagged seven of the last nine winners).
Ranger Thunderbolt (out of 4) is an improver who tried and failed over a longer trip; he’s back to his winning distance here off a nice mark in the handicap. BETDAQ 8.0 taken this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.25 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win and place GRANNY BUDGIE
BET 4pts to win 10 BLOWN AWAY
3.00 Newmarket (win 15 nap)
BET 5pts win FRANKNESS
3.35 Newmarket (win 40 total)
BET 1pt win and place VICTORY SHOUT
5.18 Newmarket (win 20 total)
BET 2.2pts win and place RANGER THUNDERBOLT
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
