22.0 ‘BIG NUNTHORPE VALUE’: Daqman pitches for a Triple Whammy in the sprint spectacular Nunthorpe Stakes at York this afternoon with win, place and lay, featuring a Bull’s-Eye Bet at 22.0 on BETDAQ this morning. He opens the day with one at 42.0.
‘PLEAS’! NO MORE SECONDS: Second, second, second! Yesterday at York did not go his way, with three big-race runners-up at 6-1, 9-4 and 15-8. At least the horse he deserted, his Irish 1,000 Guineas winner, Pleascach, was a success story in the Yorkshire Oaks for tipping colleague, Shamrock.
FOLLOW THE BETDAQ BOYS! Pricewise also failed to score, and the Daqman challenge to the Racing Post ‘value’ tipster remains at Daqman 76, Pricewise 11. ‘I have more to fear from Shamrock,’ quips Daqman. Pricewise has had only one winner since May 31, so follow the BETDAQ Boys!
LAY ACAPULCO AND HOLIDAY ON MATTMU
3.40 York (Nunthorpe Stakes) Acapulco loved the fast ground at Royal Ascot, and the third filly home then, Besharah, won the Lowther Stakes yesterday.
Acapulco’s sire, Scat Daddy, got No Nay Never to win the Prix Morny on good-to-soft ground at Deauville.
But only High Treason (1953) and Kingsgate Native (2007) have won the Nunthorpe as two-year-olds since the war, and Acapulco’s Queen Mary time was slow, as you’d expect much slower than the Kings Stand in which Goldream beat Medicean Man, Muthmir, Pearl Secret and Sole Power, all back for more today, with Sole Power seeking his third Nunthorpe.
Besharah made it four winners in a row for William Haggas yesterday and my pick of that Kings Stand quintet at twice the price of Acapulco must be the same stable’s Muthmir, whose Goodwood win puts him in front of six of today’s field, including Cotai Glory, one of the three-year-old contenders.
Second-season animals win four or five times in most decades from few runners, and Cotai Glory is one of a trio of them to have already done well at York.
He launched his season with a third place here and is fresher than most after just the two starts, but his winning form is on firm (Line Of Reason and Goldream also need to hear their feet rattle).
Mattmu has followed up a Knavesmire Listed (good to soft) by winning two Group races; they were 6f but he goes with the pace; and on the last day beat Toscanini, second to Gleneagles in the National Stakes last year and less than two lengths behind in the Jersey Stakes in June.
Mattmu has pace, class and tenacity, so is the big value of the race at 22.0 on BETDAQ early mouse.
Profitable won a Listed at York in May but improved for an extra furlong when fifth, arguably drawn on the wrong side, in the Commonwealth Cup to the magical Muhaarar.
VERDICT: Acapulco has to be a lay at the price. Muthmir has the form and so has his stable. But Mattmu looks ideal as a 6f horse who runs flat out all the way and has done well on dead ground, which has been producing shock results this week.
Cotai Glory (35.0 as I write) and Profitable (38.0) are place bets not win bets but, if you fancy them, have small stakes to win and regard the place as a ‘win bet’ at up to 10.0 (Profitable is a terrific 10.5 in the BETDAQ Place Market as I write).
I’ve taken one horse that needs the ground to continue drying, Muthmir, and one who would benefit from any more rain, Mattmu. They are priced accordingly, but the weather forecast depends on which one you read. If it does rain, Acapulco is double the lay!
XINBAMA HUGE 42.0 OFFER EARLY MOUSE
1.55 York Horses younger than five have scored in seven of the last nine. It’s a tough race for punters, but just beyond the front of the market is best, with 6-1, 7-1, 10-1, 11-1, 12-1 winners at SP in seven seasons.
Libran is 13lb higher than when winning over the York CD (only class 4) in May but it could be argued that his best form was on the last day, fourth in the Duke Of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot.
Similarly, Curbyourenthiusiasm went from winning a class 4 at Windsor to a narrow defeat at York on the last day and is penalised 15lb for these efforts.
The rating of Penhill, fourth in the Old Newton Cup on good to soft, has remained pretty static, and Top Tug, hemmed in at Goodwood last time, finishes ahead of him on a line through Notarised.
He has to come round the field from stall 19 but the way he races in a crowd of horses suggests this might suit him better than trying to find the gaps.
It’s doubtful on form and on breeding whether Memorial Day will get this trip, and the other four-year-olds make no appeal.
Well-drawn Xinbama, unlucky last year behind his winning stablemate, is huge at 42.0 on BETDAQ early mouse. He’s been lightly raced with this in mind.
TRIP TO PARIS IS A LONSDALE BELTER!
2.30 York (Lonsdale Cup) Recent Lonsdale winners have been rated in the cluster 107, 108, 109, 111, where you’ll find Max Dynamite, Vent De Force, Simenon and Mizzou.
But the Goodwood Cup – won by Big Orange with Trip To Paris narrowly third – is the best guide.
If you still don’t think it’s a wide-open race, check out the BETDAQ market, with the first four in the betting separated by only 1.6 points over my cornflakes. And I still haven’t mentioned the favourite.
Clever Cookie’s the name. He’s beaten Big Orange twice this season and he could bounce back here if it rains, after being aimed too high in the King George.
I think that, from stall 3, Graham Lee can make more use of the Gold Cup winner, Trip To Paris, and turn around the Goodwood form.
3.05 York (City of York Stakes) Just the one three-year-old successful in the decade, but Barry Hills, who won this with a second-season filly in 1996, has a strong chance with Fadhayyil (12.0 on BETDAQ, as I write).
Tanzeel (also 12.0), trained by Barry’s son, Charles, was always going to come for this after winning the Dash at the July meeting at York with a long run, as if today’s extra furlong would suit.
I worry that Tanzeel may need the ground to dry out, and Richard Pankhurst came out this morning because the surface was considered too tacky.
Danger to all is Speculative Bid, trained by David Elsworth, whose stubborn resolution landed him an International over the Derby winner yesterday and Brownie points from me for refusing to hang on to the coat-tail’s of celebrity.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points unless stated)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (win 50 target for both win bets and win-30 the place): 7.5pts win TOP TUG, plus 1.2pts win and 5pts place XINBAMA (1.55 York)
BET 5.3pts win (nap) TRIP TO PARIS (2.30 York)
BET 2.7pts win on each FADHAYYIL and TANZEEL (3.05 York)
LAY 5pts ACAPULCO (3.40 York) plus BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50): 2.3pts win and place MATTMU and (win 30) 5pts win MUTHMIR (3.40 York)
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