DAY OF THE 25-1 OAKS BET: Daqman is holding his breath and praying the rain passes Epsom by, as his 25-1 BETDAQ ante-post bet for the Oaks (to win 100) burns a hole in his wallet. He gives an alternative today and some mixed doubles with an eye on possible soft ground.
50 POINTS UP ON PRICEWISE: The forecast for storms has led him to look for alternatives at big BETDAQ offers as he takes on Pricewise 26-8 up and 50 points ahead of his Racing Post rival to a single-unit stake.
BANKERS DOUBLE FOR EPSOM: Look out tomorrow for his Derby Day reality check and full analysis of the Epsom Classic card. There’s a banker today. There’s a banker tomorrow.
FAKE NEWS: OAKS REALITY CHECK
Classic form: FOLLOW GUINEAS FORM. Not true. It’s 22 years since a filly placed second or third in the 1,000 Guineas has won the Oaks
Draw: YOU MUST BE LOW. Not true. Five in the decade were drawn 2-7; five 9-15.
Experience: YOU MUST HAVE IT. Not true. Yes, three have won after seven previous races. But six fillies had only two or three starts.
Favourites: THEY ALWAYS WIN. Not true. Only two have scored in the 10 years. Five winners have been 20-1 (three times), 33-1 and 50-1.
Prices: THE VALUE HAS GONE. Not true. Incredibly, BETDAQ was betting 103% overround this morning. Compare with the bookmakers’ Total SP of the last four years: 120, 124, 121 and 118%.
THIS COLUMN TOOK 25-1 ENABLE
One question is blowing in the wind! There’s value in BETDAQ now but what about ante-post? The answer has a yellow weather warning.
This column took 25-1 on BETDAQ (to win 100 points) about Enable but the warning issued by the Met Office for ‘extremely heavy rain’ (also described as ‘torrential downpours’) is forecast for south-east England in thunderstorms between 1 pm and 11 pm today. Is Enable, the 25-1 tree I planted for the Oaks, going to drown?
English as a language is rarely a part of the armoury of any bureaucrat or scientist. So we are left to wonder what the word ‘between’ means in context.
Does it mean that the monsoon will rage between 1 pm and 11pm, or that it will arrive – duration not known – somewhere between 1pm and 11pm and last 20 seconds. They don’t like saying ‘somewhere between’ (it dampens their credibility).
To the god of storms: please enable me to count my winnings. Do not arrive until after the champagne tonight. About 10pm will do fine, thankyou. Well, ‘between’ 10 and 11.
RAIN COULD ZAP HANNON HORSE
2.00 Epsom Like it or not, there’s no Brexit for racing! This Woodcote Stakes lost its Listed status in the last European Pattern review.
The last four winners were favourites or had a share of favouritism at the ‘off’, with Team Hannon dominating the race (three winners in the four years).
The interloper – in 2015 – was Mark Johnston (Buratino), who takes a brace of Hannons on here with Cardsharp.
If the rain has arrived, a son of heavy-ground winner Mayson might do well. That’s Zap, who will have to live up to his name (plus some zip) if he is to overhaul the Hannon front-runners, Campion and De Bruyne Horse.
Cardship made all on a track even faster than this, at Brighton in May, but Campion could be faster still as a son of Exceed And Excel, who has won this race twice.
All I can do over my cornflakes is take a position (De Bruyne Horse) and nominate a soft-ground danger (Zap). Because of that 103% overround, you can play more than once.
SIXTIES LOOKS HANDICAP PLOT
2.35 Epsom Horses aged four and five are eight from 10 in this, their only defeats coming on soft(ish) ground. It’s rare for older horses to wing around these bends and have some lung left for the hill.
If they haven’t won at Epsom before, I like to see that they’ve scored at York. Which also has a severe left–hander and a tough finish.
Sixties Groove (Epsom) at 10.5 and Home Cummins (York) at 17.8 fit these criteria of age and track ability. Sixties looks like a plot horse, down in trip, first run back. I think Adam Kirby will try to get away from them in the straight.
The soft-ground alternatives are Mutarakez and G K Chesterton, who was dislodged from his favourite’s perch this morning by Remarkable, consistent but ridden in handicaps for the first time today by Frankie Dettori.
Has to give up to 19lb away from top spot at the weights but has won on an easy surface and has a handy draw, though I’d prefer to be a few widths off the rails, say between 4 and 7, where we find Home Cummins, who has only just come to himself after a poor start to the season.
REEL DESERVES A CORONATION
3.10 Epsom (Coronation Cup) Aidan O’Brien has won this seven times since 2005, notably with Yeats and St Nicholas Abbey.
Since 1937 all the winners bar two have been aged four or five, unless completing back-to-back success in the race.
The four-year-olds are represented by Derby placed US Army Ranger (at Epsom) and Idaho (at Epsom and The Curragh) but they have never really gone on from that and don’t appeal with confidence.
This is a race to go with the favourite (they’ve won six of the last seven) and the best trial is the Sheema Classic, which has produced six Coronation Cup winners in 12 seasons from its first three home. Prize Money was fourth this year.
Highland Reel was well behind in the Classic but so he was last year. His form – winning the King George and second in the Arc – is far superior to this field.
Of the mares, Journey also seems just short of the very top. Elbereth, who won the handicap (next race) on this card in 2015, would be a 62.0 BETDAQ sensation if she could win this for Fortune Cookies and boost her work horse, Horseplay, for the Oaks. The soft-ground horses are US Army Ranger and Hawkbill.
ABAREEQ BETTER THAN BARE FORM
3.45 Epsom Again soft ground can occasionally produce a turn-up but, generally horses aged four and five dominate from stalls 1 to 8 (eight out of 10).
Fidaawy comes from a prep race that’s landed this twice but he’s badly drawn in 12 and rain would scupper his chances (withdrawn when York turned soft in May).
Great Hall got across to lead here from 12 in the City and Suburban and was only just run out of it by Brorocco (from 10).
But the winner of the City and Sub has never been able to follow up in this; usually one comes out of the pack behind. Great Hall is now 7lb better off and will try to hang on this time But he’s drifted like a lonely dog on a raft this morning, way over my betting weir to 49.0.
Examiner, Grapevine, Innocent Touch, Inshivalla and What About Carlo are also Epsom winners.
It’s a desperately tricky race but, looking to the City and Sub as the guide, ‘Im going with Abareeq (16.5 offers), who was hampered that day and Silvestre de Sousa takes the ride at a time when Mark Johnston’s horses have just come good.
SOBETSU THE SOFT OPTION..
4.30 Epsom (The Oaks, see Wednesday’s ABC guide) Here we go then. With 25-1 Enable in our wallet, we can continue our play on flexible BETDAQ. We can employ that green lay button to modify out position. Or we can stand our ground.
I’m always one to spend some of the ‘overs’ on an alternative bet, and t hat seems the best option on a day that the going might change dramatically,.
If it rains, Rhjododendron will be longish odds on with Sobetsu her nearest market rival.
Strictly on collateral form, Sobetsu beat Coronet beat Permian. That looks hot and Sobetsu seems to have improved a ton since behind Rhododendron last season: 11.5 this morning on BETDAQ
I produced a fillies list of horses Classic potential so hot that I’ve got five Fortune Cookies in the race! Sorry about that.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Enable 1, Sobetsu 2, Rhododenrdon 3
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.00 Epsom
BET (to win 20) 10pts win DE BROYNE HORSE
BET (to win 20) 4.3pts win ZAP
2.35 Epsom
BET (to win 30) 3pts win and place SIXTIES GROOVE
BET (to win 30) 2pts win and place HOME CUMMINS
3.10 Epsom
GOLD BANKER BET: 30pts win (nap) HIGHLAND REEL
3.45 Epsom
BET (to win 50) 3.25pts win and place ABAREEQ
4.30 Epsom
TON-UP BET 4pts win ENABLE (ante-post at 25-1 to win 100)
BULL’S-EYE BET 4.75pts win SOBETSU (today at 11.5 to win 50)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 2pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles G K Chesterton and Sixties Groove (2.35 Epsom) with Highland Reel (3.10 Epsom) and with Enable and Rhododendron (4.30 Epsom)
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