GOING AND BETTING WARNINGS: Daqman recommends you keep a close eye on the BETDAQ markets at Cheltenham today if they follow recent trends listed below. The going is good to soft but it’s been a drying morning, whereas Doncaster is heavy, soft in places.
FOLLOW THE BETDAQ MARKET
FAVOURITES TREND: Market leaders dominate at this so-called showcase Cheltenham meeting. Just look at these SP returns in the decade.
With most NH stables not yet in their stride, fitness is at a premium and young horses are trying this specialist track for the first time, the paddock and the betting tell you what to expect.
1.50 race: winners a maximum 100-30 with four odds-on, as follows: 8-15, 4-7, 5-2, 11-8, 4-5, 10-11, 9-4, 10-3, 3-1, and evens; among them eight successful favourites.
2.25 race: with one exception SPs were from 5-2 to 8-1 (9-10)
3.00 race: with one exception SPs were from 4-6 to 6-1 (9-10)
3.35 race: with one exceptions SPs were from 2-1 to 15-2 (9-10)
4.10 race: with one exception SPs were from 1-3 to 7-2 (9-10)
The big-field opener at 1.15 has had two winning favourites but plenty of longish prices and, as you might expect, the last race for amateur jockeys produced mainly outsiders.
EXPENSIVE TO OPPOSE HIM..
⭕ 1.15 Cheltenham Local trainer Nigel Twiston-Davis, now teamed with his son Willy, has won all bar one (the 2.25) of today’s seven races sometime in the last eight seasons.
They have a good chance of going one better with last year’s runner-up Matata in the 3.35 but, at BETDAQ 12.0 this morning, The Expensive One appeals off a featherweight for a bull’s-eye bet.
His half-brother, The New One, also trained by Nigel, was a winner of a novices’ hurdle on this card in 2012.
He went on to win the International at Cheltenham two years running and was a winner at the Festival.
Bowensonfire for Gordon Elliott will be one of the favourites but Sean Bowen – on fire with 10 winners from 12 completed races – is on a rank outsider, Prince Imperial.
Bowen won on him last year when trained by Ollie Murphy but the eight-year-old has shot up the handicap and this is a race won nine times out of 10 by sub-11st younger horses.
ALNILAM BY A COUNTRY MILE
⭕ 1.50 Cheltenham I warned you in advance yesterday that Alnilam would be backed for Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen but you could still get 4.0 on Betdaq Betting Exchange this morning.
Bowen goes to the showcase meeting with his target a million in prizemoney for the season so far.
In the trainers’ table, Murphy is just a few pounds second to Dan Skelton, who needs only one decent winner in the two days to hit the half-million and Country Mile should add place money at least in this novices’ chase.
20-1 LELOOPA COULD PLACE
⭕ 2.25 Cheltenham This conditional jockeys’ hurdle, which Harry Cobden won back to back on his way to the top, is another in which horses aged five and six do best, sub-11st on the card.
Navan trainer Cian Collins won it last year with a recent improver so watch for money on Torquay Road, who fits the bill again and could shrink from BETDAQ 12.5.
Fergal O’Brien has won this twice in six seasons and, when three times a winner Leloopa, 20-1 this morning, was laid out for a mares’ final at Kelso in March, she obliged at rates from 50-1. Wind surgery since.
TAKE A WALK ON THE FLAT..
⭕ 1.33 Doncaster Jubilee Walk was third in the Ayr Gold Cup, winner in his group, and he gets a double boost from cheekpieces and Wlliam Buick today.
But Brosay gave weight and a beating to him at Ascot earlier in September, and the one stall has won this three times in the last five years.
Eye Of Dubai, who was third in the Silver Cup, won here around this mark last autumn on the soft.
The grey Fine Interview (James Doyle) seldom runs a bad race: his form in the last year for Hamad Al Jehani (6f soft only): 1131. When ridden by Doyle 311333 (including 7f).
The mare Sophia’s Starlight (favourite track, Pontefract) carries a 5lb penalty for her winning return to form the last day.
Betdaq Betting Exchange Compare through the day and play the market with 5.1 Fine Interview, 7 Jubilee Walk, 7.7 Sophia’s Starlight, 12.5 Eye Of Dubai, 22 Brosay (10.30 a.m. offers)
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
1.15 Cheltenham (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 4.5pts win THE EXPENSIVE ONE
1.33 Doncaster (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 8.25pts win JUBILEE WALK
BET 2.4pts win BROSAY
BET 5pts to win 20 FINE INTERVIEW
★ 1.50 Cheltenham (win 30, nap)
BET 10pts win ALNILAM
2.25 Cheltenham (win 20)
BET 1.75pts win 1.25 place TORQUAY ROAD
BET 1pt win and place LELOOPA
3.35 Cheltenham (win 12
BET 3pts win MATATA
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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