MISS HIT! DAQMAN 53, PRICEWISE 19: Daqman yesterday widened the yawning gap between his winning bets and those of Pricewise in races selected by the Racing Post. Missunited (WON 3-1) took his Flat-season lead to 53-19.
THREE BANKERS UP OUT OF FOUR: In keeping with his 75% strike rate when he started the day, Daqman landed a third consecutive banker with Ivawood (WON 2-5). His score is now 22 from 30, after a below-par Estimate let him down.
SONGCRAFT FOUR FROM FIVE FRESH
1.55 Goodwood (Glorious Stakes) Just a 101% BETDAQ orange to start with, virtually a level playing-field for punters. Put that alongside up to 128% Total SP at the meeting yesterday, as the bookies skimmed off your bets.
Luca Cumani’s form in this race since 2004 is 1130011 and his followers were hoping to see eight runners to get three places about
Quest For Peace, who was one of those winners – in 2012 – and went on to back-to-back Goodwood success (both off a rating of 111) before a series of eight failed attempts to make his mark in Australia.
The 2012 Doncaster St Leger winner, Encke, is another on the comeback trail. It’s a big ask for a very big horse to be fit after such an absence, though he ran a close second in the Gordon Stakes here two years back.
Pethers Moon, kept to right-handed tracks for 12 of his 13 races, won a handicap over CD at this meeting in 2013 and looks hot after his Newmarket third to yesterday’s Goodwood Cup winner, Cavalryman.
With Pether’s Moon such a bridesmaid (2233 this year), and Godolphin celebrating in form with yesterday’s fine achievement, I shall take a chance on Songcraft, whose form figures fresh are 11211.
He was only fourth behind Quest For Peace in 2012 but had had five races that year. BETDAQ made my final decision on the race: since the orange went 9.8 Songcraft and 8.2 Quest For Peace, I dutched the two.
2.30 Goodwood The two top stables at Goodwood, Team Hannon and Mark Johnston, are old rivals in this, with the score since 2005: Hannons 3, Johnston 2.
Hors De Combat, who recorded a slow time when winning at Newmarket in the Spring, was third when Bow Creek (Johnston) was second, giving him 8lb, in the Britannia.
Hard to see a turn-around in form now that they meet at levels, though Hors De Combat was not well drawn at Royal Ascot that day.
The Hannons’ Shifting Power is a nearly horse, fourth in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas, second in the Irish version, and so the highest rated in this field.
It’s another Pether’s Moon dilemma: can he outclass these or has he used himself up, and shown his lack of finish, by his continual placing without getting the big cigar?
The BETDAQ market (102% in the orange; incredible again) this morning suggests that Shifting Power, who has had to face heavy ground wince his Guineas fourth, can frank the form of Kingman and Australia (as if they needed it!)
VELOX CAN GIVE LUCA THE MILE
3.05 Goodwood (Heritage Mile) Mark Johnston is farming this one (form figures in the last five years: 1114) but so are three-year-olds (four out of six).
Intriguingly, Johnston has whittled his entries down to one, Heavy Metal, who won the Richnond Stakes here as a two-year-old and is in hot form with back-to-back winners in July, but looks a 7f horse (like Magic City).
And three-year-olds? Again, just the one: the Epsom Derby Trial winner with cut in the ground, Our Channel, who was well down the field in the real thing behind Australia, but bounced back to very nearly land the American Derby on firm (beaten half a length)
But the draw seems to have the edge in this: no winner this week in 7f and 1m races with a higher stall than 8, and eight out of 10 Mile winners the same in the last decade.
Our Chanel has a tough task from gate 18. So, too, Steeler next door in 17, after being drawn on the right side when third in the Royal Hunt Cup. But Our Chanel looks the class horse, with three-year-olds so dominant in the race, and 17.0 on BETDAQ this morning is big.
The worry about Fort Bastion (stall 3) is that he is a hold-up horse and could get stuck on the rail. Capo Rosso should be smartly away from the seven stall and take Captain Cat (6) with him.
Red Avenger, in stall 5, has first-time blinkers to wake him up and Jimmy Fortune was absolutely ace on Magique on Wednesday, but I prefer the unexposed Velox in 10, very lightly raced and ‘could be anything’ under the shrewd hand of Luca Cumani.
10.0 SALVADOR VALUE TO SAVOUR
6.50 Galway (Guinness Handicap) There’ll be no champagne – nor even a Guinness – pass teetotal Aidan O’Brien’s lips but it will be a great family occasion if his youngest son, Donnacha (16), can land El Salvador a winner for his mother in a race in which the Ballydoyle empire is a dismal 11th/4th/9th with its last three starters.
El Salvador is being handed round the family: Joseph has won on him four times and Sarah twice; with Ana down the field in the Curragh Cup (she switches to Egyptian Warrior today).
And now Donnacha (who faces ‘plenty of stick’ from Joseph if he fluffs his lines) is taking over on this one-time Ascot Gold Cup sixth and runner-up in this year’s extreme-marathon Queen Alexandra at Royal Ascot.
But the versatile five-year-old son of Galileo (Donncha himself was the ‘brown-haired warrior’ son of Brian Boru) has form over 12 and 13f of 11121212 in 2013 and through this year to date. And the Ballydoyle new kid on the block takes off a valuable 10lb.
I can’t find a three-year-old winner of this but Panama Hat has already beaten older horses twice within his firm-ground four-timer. The forecast showers may not be welcome.
But they could be a lifeline to Eric The Grey, a winner for Richard Fahey at Windsor on the soft, and a cracking runner-up on his handicap-hurdles debut here on the opening day on Monday for Charlie Swan, whose had another second since.
Rain will also help Cliff House, with firmish ground halting his hat-trick bid in the Cork Derby, beaten by a horse he’d stuffed earlier on the soft. Though hopefully not too soft, the ground should be within his comfort zone today.
Making up a hot handicap are Dark Crusader (hooded for Tony Martin who’s already won two big ones here this week), Strandfield Lady, and Show Court, third in the race last year for Mr Ballybrit himself, Dermot Weld.
The four-year-olds let me down yesterday and have won this only once in the decade. So I shall take El Salvador (10.0 on BETDAQ this morning) and Show Court against the field.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30pts unless stated)
BET 4.1pts win QUEST FOR PEACE and 3.4pts win SONGCRAFT (1.55 Goodwood)
BET 14pts win (nap) SHIFTING POWER (2.30 Goodwood)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50 points): 6.75pts win VELOX and 3pts win and place OUR CHANEL (3.05 Goodwood)
BET 6pts win SHOW COURT and 3.3pts win EL SALVADOR (6.50 Galway)
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