NINE WINNING NAPS OUT OF 11: Daqman’s Warwick banker yesterday, Music Master (WON 8-13 from 5-4), landed his fourth nap in a row for nine out of 11 when he made all the running, a second big gamble of the week on one of Daqman’s naps after Call The Cops (4-11, BETDAQ offers around evens).
FIVE BANKERS OUT OF FIVE: In fact, he’s had four naps in a row twice, including five bankers out of five, with Music Master completing a maximum-stakes hat-trick. A notional 20 points on each of the 11 would have netted a profit of 335:
WON 6-1 ANIPA
2nd 11-4 Pearl Princess (beaten a nose)
WON 4-5 PROVIDENT SPIRIT (banker)
WON 1-1 TOORMORE (banker)
WON 2-1 LITIGANT
WON 5-1 SEA SHANTY
0 6-1 Specialagent Alfie
WON 7-4 TOKYO JAVILEX
WON 4-11 CALL THE COPS (banker)
WON 5-4 UT MAJEUR AULMES (banker)
WON 8-13 MUSIC MASTER (banker)
1.40 Sandown (Esher Cup) Eight seasons out of nine, this race has a field smaller than double figures, yet the favourite has won only once.
That tells you how difficult it is for punters to assess three-year-old handicaps at this time of year. We simply don’t know (certainly about six of today’s eight starters) which horses have trained on, which haven’t. Or how much they have improved or deteriorated.
We can only begin to take stock, and say that, for instance, John Gosden has run 26 three-year-olds and won with 10 (38%) in the last fortnight, from basic maidens to Group 3.
Saeed Bin Suroor has won three from six in that time; Richard Hannon 3-24; Andrew Balding 2-14; and Mark Johnston 2-26. Clive Brittain and Eve Johnson-Houghton show nothing.
FOR Gosden’s Sacred Act is that the Oasis Dream colt has already run and won, that he likes cut in the ground (though his sire didn’t), that the stable form in the race since 2009 is 114, and the trainer thinks so highly of Sacred Act that he has entered him in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.
AGAINST is that, in consequence of winning at Nottingham, he gives weight all round today, and that horses should be judged on their second run, not their first.
First Flight won on the debut last season but was disappointing on his second run, albeit raised in class to the Acomb Stakes. Today will tell us more but we wouldn’t want to back him until we know that was only a blip.
Derby entry End Of Line, out of a Montjeu mare, was given winning education in the late season on soft, and has his second race to come today.
Cricklewood Green did his job well twice, though only at class-4 nursery level. But he is out of a half-sister to the yard’s Jersey Stakes winner, Strong Suit, and is getting 7lb from Sacred Act.
Welcome back Richard Hughes but his mount, Art Official, has been beaten three times out of three on soft ground.
VERDICT: John Gosden is seemingly so far in front of the others with his second-season animals that both Sacred Act and Western Hymn (see 3.15) have hot-favourites’ chances today.
With Sacred Act around just under 2-1, he acts (to 10 points) as a stakes saver for a 20-point-maximum banker on Western Hymn (see 3.15).
I’m for Sky Hunter in the next but he’s short, with rumours that Telescope needs the race. So I am doubling Sky Hunter with Western Hymn to try to lever a bit of extra profit.
It’s one of those days until you get to the sprint (3.50), then I have some decent odds. Sod’s law, if I tell you it’s a difficult day, I might put you off your winners. I can only speak my truth.
2.10 Sandown (Gordon Richards Stakes) Named in 1987, but why not the Sir Gordon Richards Stakes? The 26-times champion was knighted in coronation year and duly won that season’s Derby on Pinza, beating The Queen’s Aureole. No hard feelings, then.
The 2008 runner-up, Tartan Bearer, won this race in 2009 but, since then, it’s gone to horses previously placed in Group/Grade 2 or 3 at best.
Sky Hunter did better than that: he was placed in the French Derby to Arc third Intello, same trip, similar ground conditions, with Group-2 winners around him at the finish.
That makes him joint top-rated here, alongside Telescope, one-time Derby and St Leger fancy whose interrupted three-year-old career was ended with a chipped bone.
Sir Michael Stoute’s record in this – and yes, we do mention the knighthood every time – is 11140 and he is the undisputed master at improving horses after their second season.
But Sky Hunter has won first time two seasons running and Saeed Bin Suroor has suddenly taken off with current form figures of 11140121.
VERDICT: You are betting on potential with Telescope (avoided soft ground so far) against a Classic performance by Sky Hunter, who seems to act on any going.
Officially, they both rate 115 but Sir Michael Stoute has made a patchy start to the season, whereas the number-one Godolphin yard is flying. I’ll put Sky Hunter in my multiples but I will probably take Telescope out of the race.
2.45 Sandown Mile Five successful favourites, and nothing over 5-1 at SP for 10 years. Team Hannon has a recent record of 1111114.
For that reason, some will not look beyond his pair, Montiridge, a course winner on good to soft, and Trumpet Major who won this race last year, though wouldn’t want the ground any deeper.
Top Notch Tonto was third in the Champions Day mile on soft last backend but his trainer has been in modest form, with only one Flat winner from his near-40 starters in the last fortnight, and Tonto has always needed his first run back.
Garswood took the Free Handicap first time up last season, won a Group-2 at Goodwood on good to soft and was third in the Group-1 Foret, not far off a magical 10-time Group winner, Moonlight Cloud.
So it is that Montiridge and Garswood both made 11lb improvement through their second season and there should be more to come in each case.
VERDICT: Garswood, so far a 7f horse, was described as ‘still green’ when he won the Lennox (Group 2) last July. Montiridge won a Group 3 at the same meeting.
Until it is proved otherwise, I see Garswood as a big improver this term, and he’s already officially 2lb in front of Montiridge. Can he come through this mile test?
3.15 Sandown Classic Trial I have not deliberately bet at odds on in my sequence so far, thanks to BETDAQ morning offers, though three of the nine have been forced in to much shorter at SP, and SP is how I return my naps, to be fair and transparent.
Today it’s time to ‘buy money’ on one favoured in the Derby betting and with a comparatively easy task in his trial here: Western Hymn.
Trainer John Gosden has already beaten Automated (with Eagle Top). Master Carpenter and Sir Jack Layden look exposed as second class and Truth or Dare has twice fallen short against two others at the front in the Classic markets, Kingston Hill and True Story. Red Galileo was not fancied for today’s race in morning exchanges.
‘He’s got it all,’ said William Buick after winning on Western Hymn at Newbury. The look of this field suggests he doesn’t need to have it all to win his trial today.
VERDICT: John Gosden, who heads the Guineas betting with Kingman, can close down Australia and True Story in the Epsom market with Western Hymn, as he continues to dominate the home front with his three-year-olds.
I am planning on a 3-1 nap tomorrow so that, if Western Hymn can win this, I will top 400 points profit for a level 20 points on each of 13 naps. We’ll hope our chickens are golden geese but we won’t count them yet..
3.50 Sandown David O’Meara has just had six placed out of seven (four winners). He brings Penitent down from Yorkshire to try to recapture the Sandown Mile (won it in 2012) and he won’t go down without a fight.
But the one from the yard that I want to be on is Eccleston in this. He scored first time last season on the soft. Others have claims but I made a note to be on him first time and I could get 5.6 on BETDAQ this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS (backed to win 20 points, except banker and multiples)
BET 10pts win SACRED ACT (1.40 Sandown)
BET 4.6pts win GARSWOOD (2.45 Sandown)
BANKER: BET 20 points win (nap) WESTERN HYMN (3.15 Sandown)
BET 4pts win ECCLESTON (3.50 Sandown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double SKY HUNTER (2.10 Sandown) and WESTERN HYMN (3.15 Sandown) and 1pt win treble the same two with ECCLESTON (3.50 Sandown)
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