LAFFAN ALL THE WAY TO THE BANK? Daqman continues trying to winkle out the better BETDAQ offers and comes up with 9.4 The Confessor and 10.5 Laffan in a race at Chester. He also checks out the handicaps on the first day at Sandown, which features two Group-3 races on Saturday.
WINNER A DAY BUT NOT ENOUGH: The success of Ulis De Vassy (WON 13-8) fell eight points short of a breakeven for Daqman yesterday. Disappointing after his winners at 10-1 (twice) and 9-1 in the previous three days. ‘I usually work my tips so that one winner covers all other stakes but I overstretched yesterday,’ says Daqman. More about his staking methods next week.
2.50 Sandown The previous six winners of this were drawn 2, 6, 6, 8, 3, 2 and the last time there was a field of this size, the result by stall was 2-7-9-1.
That’s one reason why Angel Way (in 3) was most wanted in the BETDAQ market this morning. Ryan Moore’s riding is another reason. And her Newmarket win a grade higher another, though the three immediately behind her were on long losing runs and the previous recent winners in the race didn’t perform. She’s up 4lb for it.
In her favour is that the drop to the minimum has suited and this race is laden with older horses, whereas the comparative youngsters usually win it (5yo 6, 4yo 2 in 10 years).
On age and draw, you’d be looking at Howyadoingnotsobad, Greenery and Irish Boy as likely dangers, though ‘Howya’ was doing not so good when beaten by Angel Way at Newbury earlier this month.
The hood will have to transform Greenery (has played up in the stalls) and Irish Boy has won once in two years. Though it was in a lower grade, he is still racing off his highest mark.
My fancy is Rocket Bob. The stable’s had a lean year but has shown signs of form – two seconds – in the last week or so, including Rocket Bob’s ‘moral’ victory at Wolver, beaten half a length but conceding 6lb to the winner.
Rocket Bob (William Buick booked for the job) has Sandown form since his debut of 1122 in class 4 or lower, and is 5.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
3.00 Chester Tim Easterby has hit a seam of form and he’s booked Silvestre De Sousa for Laffan, back in business at Newcastle but then unluckily hampered out of it at Musselburgh.
Laffan (10.5 on BETDAQ this morning) won three from four last season but has taken time to shed the resultant penalty pounds and hasn’t enjoyed the firm surfaces.
Today’s give in the ground will suit and he’s 50% going left-handed on turning tracks (Epsom, Southwell).
Chosen Character has won at Chester and also likes cut in the ground. That applies double to Dr Red Eye, who has been extremely lucky with the draw there: with form figures 24113 from stalls 2,3,2,3,6. Until today.
Though Dr Red Eye has the form for this, he is in a double-figure stall (12) and was only seventh (from stall 17) last time that happened.
Morning market leader Secret Look steps up in trip and is drawn 11. King Of Eden steps up in class. Sir Reginald has won only at 6f.
There’s not much between Zacynthus and The Confessor offers of 9.4), both well drawn, but with The Confessor (by Piccolo and himself placed on soft) the more likely to act with the cut in the ground.
3.55 Sandown Sir Michael Stoute’s Enobled was easy to back at 5.0 in this one at the time of writing. Enobled has to bounce back after a break since flopping as hot favourite in a handicap in the Spring.
That run for a two-year-old on very firm ground was probably not a good idea. He goes well fresh and was described as ‘uncomplicated and could be ridden with confidence’ after his maiden success.
Meanwhile, Breden (class 2 at Newmarket) and George Cinq (today’s grade over CD) have been winning handicaps at a good level.
If the rain came in quantity, Thouwra could improve on her Nottingham win on her handicap debut, but Brownsea Brink’s class-4 success seems to have come with a lucky easy lead. The time was poor (so, too George Cinq’s CD win, for which he’s penalized)
Ryan Moore knows all about Regal Silk, a losing favourite for him at Windsor, so I leave it between Breden and Enobled. All seven of Breden’s opponents at Newmarket were previous winners, and I give him the edge.
5.00 Sandown On his handicap debut, the Stoute yard’s Legends looks the only danger to Alegra, if BETDAQ backers can be believed. However, The Wizard Of Aus could threaten. I make this his handicap debut, too, but neither Legends nor The Wizard Of Aus appear in the trade-paper’s list.
Alegra’s Thirsk success has been boosted since and the grey Galileo filly is impeccably bred from a yard in fine form: currently 10212204141.
DAQMAN’S BETS
(main bets to win 20 points)
BET: 5pts win ROCKET BOB and 1.4pts win (stakes saver) ANGEL WAY (2.50 Sandown)
BET: 2.3pts win THE CONFESSOR and 2pts win LAFFAN (3.00 Chester)
BET: 10pts win BREDEN and 2.5pts win (stakes saver) ENOBLED (3.55 Sandown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win each and 5pts win double NEZAR (4.05 Chester) and ALEGRA (nap) 5.00 Sandown), with two 1pt win trebles the same two with THE CONFESSOR and LAFFAN (3.00 Chester)
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