5-1 HEADLINE HORSE WINS IN STYLE: Daqman’s headline horse – ‘Rasen Just Right For Linger’s Style’ – came good by nine lengths at the Lincolnshire track and his nap scored by 11 lengths at Leicester yesterday.
They were:
WON 5-1 Linger
WON 1-2 Thankyou Very Much (nap)
ABC GUIDE TO THE TINGLE CREEK: Daqman checks out the BETDAQ offers as he tags the Tingle Creek Chase runners for tomorrow with the stats they need to match, according to the history of the race.
EXETER OFF/SANDOWN ON TODAY: Daqman expects a Paul Nicholls double from the first three races on Sandown’s opening day but finds that Alan King farms the Grade-2 Winter Novices’ Hurdle. Exeter has been abandoned.
GODS OWN TICKS TINGLE CREEK BOXES
3.00 Sandown, tomorrow (Tingle Creek Chase) This has produced aces from the two-milers pack like Kauto Star, Twist Magic, Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy, who attempts to take the prize for a third time tomorrow. But here’s how the stats say they will finish and why:
A Grade-1 winner (85%)
B Aged five to eight (72%)
C Rated 165 or more (78%)
D Raced in the last month (72%)
X Stable in peak form
ABCDX Gods Own
Back-to-back Grade-1 wins in the Spring (Melling Chase from Al Ferof and Punchestown Champion Chase from Vautour). Two runs back and conditions in his favour, but record at Cheltenham and Sandown not so good.
Beaten by Un De Sceaux in the 2015 Arkle and when they were second and fourth in the Champion Chase. Sandown form of 0F includes when seventh in this race in 2014. He was 5.9 on BETDAQ this morning.
ABCX Un De Sceaux
Top rated after 14 consecutive wins, still standing, with falls at Leopardstown and Thurles among them. Three defeats this year, including trounced by Sprinter Sacre in the Celebration Chase here at Sandown.
But beat Gods Own in the 2015 Arkle at Cheltcenham and Sire De Grugy in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot (2016). There were 2.76 offers in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
ABD Vibrato Valtat
First-time cheekpieces must help him bridge a gap of around 10lb here, having been beaten by all three of Un De Sceaux (twice), Gods Own and Sire De Grugy. His only success since a hat-trick as a novice came when he won the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter 13 months ago. ‘Not wanted’ at 24.0 on the BETDAQ exchange.
AB Ar Mad
Five out of six, including 10 lengths success in the Henry V111 Chase on this day last December, his second win over the Sandown CD. But not seen since February. Best BETDAQ offers, as I write: 4.2
ACD Sire De Grugy
Dual winner of this, and only 4.4 in the BETDAQ orange this morning, has held his rating of 166 since taking the race last year but has had his ups and downs in the interim.
Well outpointed by Un De Sceaux and beaten by Sprinter Sacre three times, he a needed a drop to class 2 at Ascot recently to return to winning form.
BX Sir Valentino
Has steadily climbed the rankings from a 124 in January of last year to the 151 given him after his Grade-2 success at Exeter last month but that was off a light weight in a handicap and much more is needed here.
THEY WON’T BE PASSING THE BUCK’S!
12.40 Sandown More Buck’s has top weight and his amateur cannot claim, so he has to give away between 8lb and 26lb. But which horse in the field is capable of taking his early Christmas gift?
Arbeo has won here but that was in 2013 and his trainer hasn’t had a steeplechase winner since he won on heavy ground early in the year.
Azure Fly, too often the bridesmaid, has scored just the once in two years, but holds Twirling Magnet and Ardkilly Witness on form.
Dreamsoftheatre prefers flat, left-handed tracks. Like Azure Fly, he would want the ground to have been drying out this morning. Vikekhal has never raced right-handed.
African Gold has a row of parking tickets (P/PPP) to his name, and front-runner Take A Bow, who gets only 5lb from More Buck’s, can expect the favourite to be in his slipstream all the way until the turn for home.
The answer to my own question is, therefore, that nothing looks capable of taking the prize from More Buck’s, and Take A Bow’s lead should leave him enough in the tank to stay this extra trip.
1.50 Sandown Antarctica De Thaix, third in the Mares Final over hurdles, has schooled particularly well over fences, has had a run back and seems to act on any going. The grey looks another Paul Nicholls winner.
Volvalien has had plenty of experience over fences in public already, and has won a small novice chase. Pilgrims Bay has first-time cheekpieces for his debut over fences. Jaboltiski is high in the weights for a four-year-old.
2.25 Sandown (Winter Novices’ Hurdle) The first Graded event of the two days has thrown up some decent sorts, including Pertemps Final winner, Fingal Bay, and Taquin Du Seuil who would make up into a decent chaser, winning the JLT at Cheltenham.
The race has always been farmed by Alan King (form sequence 11 – – – 41), who runs one only when he thinks he can win it, and has made just one mistake since 2008.
It all points up the chances of Messire Des Obeaux, who tackled Grade-3 open company, not disgraced in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham in March though still a maiden at the time. He very easily broke his duck on his return in a class 2 at Bangor last month.
Like Messire Des Obeaux, Cultivator is a chasing type but he won as he liked at Ascot in October, and Aintree My Dream took his hurdles debut on the bridle.
In a field of ‘could be anythings’, the near-evens Ballyandy doesn’t seem right but, after decent bumper and hurdles efforts in Graded-novice company, he is up in trip here, and that should suit a Kayf Tara out of a Karinga Bay mare.
At the offers, I’m forced to choose between Ballyandy and Messire Des Obeaux, who is a better price and carries that ‘reserved for A King’ label. Ballyandy’s four wins have all come going left-handed.
3.35 Sandown Something rare this autumn-winter: a Jonjo O’Neill horse as a worthy favourite. Utility should carry that burden well but I’d worry about having to take short price.
Gary Moore perseveres with Sea Serpent (28.0 offers on BETDAQ, early mouse). Could be better than the (thread)bare form.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each single bet staked to win 20 points)
BET 10pts win (nap) MORE BUCK’S (12.40 Sandown)
BET 6pts win ANTARTICA DE THAIX (1.50 Sandown)
BET 7.25pts win MESSIRE DES OBEAUX (2.25 Sandown)
BET 1pt win and place SEA SERPENT, and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) UTILITY (3.35 Sandown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble More Buck’s (12.40 Sandown), Antartica Du Thaix (1.50 Sandown) and Utility (3.35 Sandown)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
