SEE HOW THEY RAN: FINAL DAY: Daqman completes his day-by-day survey of Cheltenham a week in advance with the seven races on the getting-out day, Friday next week.
MORE DISNEY MAGIC: DAQMAN has three bets on Friday including in the featured Grand Military Gold Cup at Sandown where he expects Guy Disney and Rathlin Rose to follow up on their recent course and distance success.
WHY STORYTELLER AT CHELTENHAM
1.30 Cheltenham, Friday (Triumph Hurdle)
The winner of this had been seen out in February; 80% were successful on that latest start. Five out of eight were French imports. Most had had only two or three hurdles runs.
Daqman Defi Du Seuil, from my Cheltenham Cavalry list, plus my ante-post bet, the gambled-on Master Blueyes, both seem exposed with five runs.
But eight out of 10 winners started at 13-2 or shorter, and favourites are going for a hat-trick.
Betdaq Punters who saw Charli Parcs beat Master Blueyes eight lengths at Kempton over Christmas are in denial about his fall on the same course in the Adonis Hurdle, when Master Blueyes won. So Charli Parcs is only marginally bigger than Blueyes at 9.4
2.10 Cheltenham, Friday (County Hurdle)
Willie Mullins has won this at 10-1, 20-1 and 25-1 in the last seven years. Paul Nicholls has had four winners and three others in the four since 2003.
So the usual suspects, if they can pitch one within the successful ratings parameter of 134-139 (nine winners in the decade).
Daqman/Betdaq Tombstone and Movewiththetimes from Daqman’s Cheltenham Cavalry horses to follow are 11.5 and 25.0 on BETDAQ but as low as 6-1 and 8-1 with bookmakers.
2.50 Cheltenham, Friday (Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle)
Every winner of this for the last 11 years had earlier won or been placed in a Grade 1 or (mainly) Grade 2 over 2m 4f or more. Exposed horses (with more than six runs) don’t do well.
Daqman/Betdaq Wholestone, from the Cavalry list, is among the favourites but no point in betting until the day while Death Duty is propping up the market.
3.30 Cheltenham, Friday (Gold Cup)
A very open Gold Cup full of negatives, with Djakadam’s black mark that he’s fallen twice, including at Cheltenham. And the 11-year-old Cue Card is too old now on the stats (90% of winners are aged seven to nine).
Daqman/Betdaq Daqman’s choice in his horses to follow, Native River, has the positive ‘improver’ flagged on his CV and is 5.0 in the BETDAQ orange, though 3-1 with most bookmakers.
4.10 Cheltenham, Friday (Foxhunter Chase)
Amateur riders here; conditionals in the next. Maybe the bookies all got together to frame the last day. If they can’t win these, they should stick to their FOBTs.
I said something similar last year, yet the favourite won the Foxhunter at 13-8, the seventh time in eight years that the winner had started 15-2 or less.
On The Fringe and Salsify both won it twice, but both may be seen next Friday, though bookies and Betdaq alike agree on a hat-trick for On The Fringe.
4.50 Cheltenham, Friday (Martin Pipe Conditionals Chase)
This one seems hard with 25-1, 20-1, 16-1, 14-1 (twice) and 12-1 winners in the decade, yet Mullins and Nicholls make finding a winning outsider easier with five winners between them in six seasons.
Horses aged five and six have swept the board in the last decade so, if you are boggling at the big field as you try to assess the form, take that age group and a top yard and you have an instant short list.
Daqman/Betdaq The Storyteller is everybody’s favourite, and perhaps he’s not as short as he looks (4.7 when I backed him in this column on Tuesday) because his nearest rivals in the market are way down the handicap and must be doubtful to get in: No Comment (number 44), Battleford (67), Brio Conti (86) and Al Boum Photo (117).
5.30 Cheltenham, Friday (Grand Annual)
Four winners out of five were rated 140-145; then last year’s scored off 149. But only one favourite has won this in the decade, with 16-1 SP (three times), 20-1, 28-1 and 40-1 in the last seven years.
Once again, such winning outsiders have been largely supplied by the usual suspects: Martin, Henderson, Nicholls and Twiston-Davies
MORE DISNEY MAGIC AT SANDOWN
3.05 today, Sandown (Grand Military Gold Cup) Jockey Guy Disney created one of the biggest stories of the season so far when winning the Royal Artillery Gold Cup onboard Rathlin Rose over the same trip here last month.
Their sights are again aimed at Esher for another prestigious prize and to repeat the same race double that Jennys Surprise achieved last season.
Rathlin Rose scored with plenty in hand here last time and even though the close second favourite Troika Steppes unseated rider – he was beaten at the time.
Ardkilly Witness was beaten four and a half lengths into second and is back for more on 5lb better terms as is Renard who finished third.
But it really should be form confirmed – selecting winners is a lot about reducing variables and we’re faced with the same horses, same trip, same course and same going so let’s now just hope for the SAME RESULT.
5.35 Ayr I’m sticking with the amateur riders for the closing handicap hurdle on the Ayr card at 5.35pm over 3m which will take a good deal of getting on the forecast heavy ground.
Kit Alexander is a very competent pilot (recent form figures 323163) and he should land this onboard Another Mattie.
The ten-year-old is a soft ground winner here and a heavy ground winner at Kelso and despite pulling up here in December has shown some more spark in his two starts this season and this looks a desperately weak contest.
For good measure the handicapper has dropped him a further 1lb in the weights.
5.45 Newcastle Evening action from Newcastle and Blushing Red looks rock solid in the opener.
The Ed Dunlop trained runner came off second best against Atkinson Grimshaw at Wolverhampton last time out but the pair finished well clear and this looks easier if anything.
It would be disappointing if he wasn’t good enough to beat Sugarloaf Mountain who has had some more experience but been well held on his last two starts here.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BACK 8pts win (nap) RATHLIN ROSE (3.05 Sandown)
BACK 5pts win ANOTHER MATTIE (5.35 Ayr)
BACK 7pts win BLUSHING ROCK (5.45 Newcastle)
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