DAQMAN IS BACK ON THE HEIGHTS WITH THREE NAPS FROM FOUR: Daqman made it three naps out of four yesterday and five days of profit out of six, with 12 winners overall! There was plenty of evens about his Thursday nap, Solar Heights, but he was ‘smashed’ nearer the off and halved in price.
WON 1-2 SOLAR HEIGHTS (Thursday nap)
WON 9-4 BENADALID (Tuesday nap)
WON 9-5 IBRAZ (Monday nap)
BULL’S-EYE BID AS DAQMAN TARGETS THE IRISH CAMBRIDGESHIRE: Top-class racing in Ireland today includes the Irish Cambridgeshire, sure to get Daqman on the oche for some bull’s-eye bets. Today’s headlines:
🔹 AUXILIA FLING! COULD BE ANYTHING
🔹 MAYBE IT’S ONLYHUMAN AFTER ALL..
🔹 FRANKIE FLIES IN FOR PIER SHOW
🔹 INCA ANOTHER JOHNSTON WARRIOR
AUXILIA ZING! COULD BE ANYTHING
Ireland brings early quality to the weekend. The big three races at The Curragh are two two-year-old races, one of which have produced Ten Sovereigns last year, and the first big autumn handicap on these islands, the Irish Cambridgeshire, which has gone to double-figure odds at SP nine times out of 10 in the decade.
4.50 The Curragh (1m Flame Of Tara, 2yo fillies Group 3) This was won by Aidan O’Brien’s Anglesey third, Just Wonderful, last year on her way to winning the Rockfel.
The maiden, So Wonderful, same stable, no relation, goes for a ‘Wonderful’ double rated 101 after being thereabouts in Group races without winning.
Jessica Harrington (Cayenne Pepper, who holds A New Dawn) and Ger Lyons (Auxilia, who cruised home at Naas) have their youngsters in fine form, and I’ll take a chance on Auxilia (5.8 taken on BETDAQ). Could be anything!
5.20 The Curragh (6f Round Tower Stakes, 2yo Group 3) Ger Lyons has another interesting filly here, Brunelle, but colts have won it seven years running, four of the last six trained Aidan O’Brien (Ten Sovereigns 2018).
O’Brien’s Lope Y Fernandez has twice been placed behind Pinatubo, and that seems to be preferred by Ryan Moore to Fort Myers’ places behind Arizona and Siskin.
On the day punters usually get it right: the favourite has won the last six, and is eight out of 10.
This morning Guildsman edged to the front of the market, third when Fort Myers was fourth to Arizona in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Not a race I want to get involved in early, with unusually high overrounds this morning. I’ll wait until later on (but see Thirsk).
MAYBE IT’S ONLYHUMAN AFTER ALL..
6.50 The Curragh (1m Irish Cambridgeshire) I’m always looking for a big hit in a handicap but this one is particularly tricky, as suggested by the demise of 19 consecutive favourites since the beginning of the century. Pricewise ducks it.
I need a come-from-behind horse, middle to high. Two winners in the last three years came off the pace down the middle but Sea Wolf (2016), also coming late, scored nearer the stands’ rail. Yet all three had in common a high draw (19, 23, 27).
I’m looking for something that has beaten a big field. Onlyhuman has. He’ll like the ground but has to get across to the middle from the one stall. Will it be a blessing in disguise to one that’s won up to 1m 3f?
He hit the starting gates before they opened when joint favourite for the Mile at the Galway Festival, eighth giving 7lb to the benchmark, Saltonstall. Now giving only two, and also better off with Turnberry Isle.
Innamorare, the runner-up, is worse off at the weights but stall 18 may help and he’s well in now with the third, Quizical.
Turnberry Isle (coming out of 11), who was a long way behind Saltonstall at Galway, was fourth in the Group-3 Desmond Stakes, won by Madhmoon, the Epsom Derby runner-up, and will enjoy the strong pace.
Another well behind at Galway, Jassaar (stall 24), one-time Royal Hunt Cup hope, had Saltonstall in fourth in the Irish Village Handicap here in June. Should get a good lead from Trading Point (25), and is unexposed after only seven starts.
His trainer, Dermot Weld, has a 36% strike rate in handicaps at the Curragh rising to 43% when Andrew Slattery rides. I matched 13.0 Turnberry Isle, 13.0 Jassaar and 14.5 Onlyhuman in the BETDAQ orange.
FRANKIE FLIES IN FOR PIER SHOW
3.15 Sandown Frankie Dettori’s sole English ride since last Saturday is 6000,000gn yearling Palace Pier, ‘expected’ first time by John Gosden. ‘You can’t say he will win – we’re talking immature animals not yet racehorses – but he’s a lovely Kingman colt and we are very hopeful of a good start.’
The worry must be Discovery Island’s experience. The BETDAQ market couldn’t separate them this morning at around 3.00 offers on each but Discovery Island has no posh entries.
Palace Pier, Lord Campari, My Frankel and Mars Landing are all entered up, seen as Group-1 hopefuls.
2.00 and 4.45 Thirsk Pat Cosgrave, who had five winners in four days at the end of last week, is 100% for Chris Wall and his two rides for the Newmarket trainer here are perfectly priced for bets which assume at least one of them wins.
Glen Esk (2.00) is 9.4 the win and I made an offer of 2.0 the place. I got 5.0 Purgatory (4.45) win only with extra stake to cover the Glen Esk bets.
You guys can play all day, but I have to take those offers because I am condemned to the electric chair later (erm, dentist to you).
Wall is one of the better small trainers. currently has six winners in the last fortnight (43%) and is closing in on a million pound earnings in the last five years.
INCA ANOTHER JOHNSTON WARRIOR
6.55 Hamilton (1m 4f, Ladbrokes Lanark Silver Bell) The youngsters continuously give older horses the boot. Those aged three and four have won every time in the new-style race of the last decade.
In the last two years 15 older horses in fields totalling 26 – so in the majority – have failed to stop the trend.
Mark Johnston has won it four times in six seasons, and he’s reduced this year’s entry to just the one, Sapa Inca, who has reached a place eight times this season, scoring at Ascot on the last day.
The highly-regarded Paths Of Glory scrambled home at Ffos Las but is expected to do better with cut in the ground, and represents the Hugo Palmer stable which has a 75% strike rate at Hamilton (3-4)..
The race has last-year-s 1-2-3 (Archi’s Affaire, Jabbaar and Theglasgowwarrior) back for more so it’s quite a race. But I’ll go with the stats: Sapa Inca 4.5, Paths of Glory 7.4 on BETDAQ as I write.
8.00 Hamilton (5f) Conditions have come right for Guardia Svizzera to repeat last year’s eased-down success off a 9lb lower mark. The 4.7 on BETDAQ looked good.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.00 Thirsk (win 20)
BET 2.4pts win and place GLEN ESK
4.45 Thirsk (win 10 plus 4.8pts cover on 2.00 race)
BET 3.75pts win PURGATORY
3.15 Sandown (win 20)
BET 10pts win (nap) PALACE PIER
4.50 The Curragh (win 20)
BET 4pts win AUXILIA
6.50 The Curragh (bull’s-eye bets to win 50)
BET 4pts win JASSAAR
BET 4pts win TURNBERRY ISLE
BET 3.75pts win ONLYHUMAN
6.55 Hamilton (win 30)
BET 8.5pts win SAPA INCA
BET 4.75pts win PATHS OF GLORY
8.00 Hamilton (win 20)
BET 5.5pts win GUARDIA SVIZZERA
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