4-1 HIT AMONG FOUR WINS FOR DAQMAN: Three winners, including a 4-1 shot at SP, and a big-odds place (A Bridge Too Far 3rd 12-1) made up for the defeat of Daqman’s banker yesterday and the bad luck of Good Luck Charm (2nd 11-2), beaten a neck.
HE MAKES 37 POINTS PROFIT ON THE DAY: His returns came from Court Pastoral (WON 4-1), Mont Ras (WON 5-2), Zaraee (WON 15-8) and Bridge Too Far (3rd 12-1). Profit and loss totted up to a plus of 37 points on the day.
2.20 Sandown The high draw was a big advantage up to 2005 but, in the last seven seasons, five winners have come from stalls 1 to 4, with no winner higher than 7.
Before checking out such a potential edge, I like to go through the form first, blind to the draw, and see what I come up with.
I ruled out Effie B, Kyleakin Lass, Naabegha and Steps on account of the ground – all their best form is on soft – and Pabusar as having won only his maiden from 24 starts.
A sequence of places has meant Rylee Mooch rising in the handicap to a class he’s never won in. Gladiatrix, Lupo D’Oro and Freddie With A Y also have to raise their game from lower grades.
Edge Closer and Fair Value are 9lb and 7lb higher than their last winning form. Joe Packet looks very hard to win with, scoring just once since 2010.
I am left with Doctor Parkes (stall 2), Taajub (in 3) and Dungannon (12). In fact, an outside draw might help the 2012 Wokingham fifth Dungannon, who stays – and has won at – 6f and 7f even.
VERDICT: Taajub has twice won in July, has been placed in a Group race and is perfectly drawn in 3, with Adam Kirby booked for a small yard which had a winner recently: 10.5 on BETDAQ, as I write. Dungannon (23.0) will bounce back one day and it could be today, if he gets the breaks. Worth a pound at huge odds.
2.50 Sandown A cracking speed contest but hard to bet in, with potential to improve and the failure of Royal Ascot form to work out this week.
Can it be redeemed by Norfolk Stakes fourth Ambiance or Queen Mary sixth Survived? The Queen Mary would normally be best and that day Survived split the subsequent one-two in a Newmarket Listed, Fig Roll (4th at Ascot) and Ventura Mist (8th).
However, there is collateral form. Wind Fire, third in the Norfolk, just ahead of Ambiance, had beaten Survived (William Haggas) over today’s course and distance in May. Strictly, at the weights, Ambiance wins today.
But (there’s always a ‘but’, isn’t there), be warned, that Langavat, Fine ‘N Dandy (Tom Dascombe) and Majestic Alexander all won from the front last time out, so the pace of the race could bring stamina into play.
VERDICT: Just how close this race could be is illustrated by the offers of 3.6, 4.2, 4.4 and 4.6, as I write. Yet the whole set of odds expressed as offers add up to a fabulous low of 103% total probability.
In other words, it’s so punter friendly you ought to have your pound on. I’d want to be on Dascombe or Haggas; their youngsters are in such fine form. I hope I can say I Survived this race!
3.25 Sandown Kieren Fallon is here – before Haydock tonight – to ride Diapenko in this one, but there’s more Royal Ascot collateral, with Munjally having run third to the Coventry Stakes fifth. The betting says it’s between the two but there are completely unknown quantities.
4.00 Sandown (Gala Stakes) Three-year-olds, who used to win this all the time (5 out of 6 from 2002-7), have had only one runner in all of the last five years.
But they are well represented today by the Guineas and Royal Ascot placed Van Der Neer and the Epsom Derby trial winner, Mirsaale, who was 9th (beaten little more than seven lengths) in the real thing.
Then there’s Excess Knowledge, a late starter for John Gosden this season but the moral last August when giving weight and going down only a length to Just The Judge, who has been so consistent in Group 1 this term, including success in the Irish 1,000 Guineas.
Of the older horses, you have a problem with the Frenchman: will Mandour act on the fast ground? I can’t be as confident as to take 2.94 on BETDAQ this morning.
Only one other older horse was fancied, Afsare, but he is six now and was held by Sri Putra a year ago on firm.
VERDICT: The 105% list of offers in the orange gives us the chance of a bet on Van Der Neer and a saver on Mandour. Oh, and I can’t resist 20.0 Excess Knowledge as the surprise packet. Won first time out last season.
4.35 Sandown Three-year-olds have won the previous three, notably last year with Encke who stepped up from this to Group level and three races later won the St Leger.
VERDICT: Code Of Honour was said to have been unsuited by firm ground at Haydock in May. And Mushaakis, like Cashpoint, is raised in class.
Success for Al Saham would sanitise the race for Godolphin, since Encke’s trainer was the disgraced Mahmood Al Zarooni.
5.05 Sandown This one goes to the quality at the top of the handicap: 6 out of 7 have carried 9st 5lb and more, and the odd one out was a three-year-old getting the allowances.
But, in fact, you could look back and say that three-year-olds won 5 out of 6 between 2002 and 2007. So, quality or youth.
VERDICT: Intriguing that Sir Michael Stoute saddles youth (Auld Alliance) and employs youth to ride in the shape of that Royal Ascot hat-trick man James Doyle (still a fresh face at 25), who will be on Al Kazeem in tomorrow’s Eclipse.
James and ‘Al’ have performed a four-timer already, culminating in one of his Ascot trio, and he has four booked Sandown Saturday rides after five today. Let the good times roll!
DAQMAN’S BETS
GOLD VALUE BET 2.1pts win TAAJUB, and 0.9pts win and place DUNGANNON (2.20 Sandown)
GOLD VALUE BET 5.5pts win SURVIVED (2.50 Sandown)
VALUE BET 7.4pts win GLEN MOSS (3.35 Doncaster)
VALUE BETS 5pts win VAN DER NEER, 1pt win and place EXCESS KNOWLEDGE and 3.4pts win (stakes saver) MANDOUR (4.00 Sandown)
VALUE BET 6pts win AL SAHAM (4.35 Sandown)
VALUE BET 10pts win (nap) AULD ALLIANCE (5.05 Sandown)
BET 11pts win ALTHAROOS (7.30 Beverley)
VALUE BETS 7pts win VELOX and 5pts win PLAYBILL (9.15 Haydock)
DAQMAN’S TARGETS: Quality racing but tricky so stakes kept low to win 20 points on each bet. Value Bets are in races where the total percentage probability is below 110, and Gold Value is where Daqman opposes the favourite in such a race.
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also
log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
