VALID REASON FOR TAKING 16.5 BETDAQ VALUE: Daqman rates the 16.5 Valid Reason ‘huge’ on BETDAQ this morning and naps Solix for the Grand Military Gold Cup. It’s his Outsider Of The Day.
FINAL COUNTDOWN TO CHELTENHAM: Today is Daqman’s final day – next Friday’s stats a week in advance – of his probe into the Cheltenham Festival. Now look out for:
SUNDAY: Daqman’s BETDAQ-betting strategy for the Festival.
MONDAY: The 30 facts and figures that will change your Cheltenham.
TOMORROW: DAQMAN 25, PRICEWISE 9: Before the big bouts next week, Daqman squares up to Pricewise, for a tote-to-toe value fight for the Imperial Cup at Sandown. Daqman currently leads Pricewise 25 returns to 9.
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY 4: STATS SUPPORT MY FAITH IN BRIAR HILL
1.30 Cheltenham, Friday (Triumph Hurdle): Trainers Hobbs, King, Henderson and Nicholls – with two apiece – dominated this for eight years from 2004 but the Irish broke back through Our Conor (Dessie Hughes)
Look for a Flat-bred (sire must have won a Group 1 or 2 race), with no more than three hurdles starts (7 out of 10) but with two successes already (6 out of 10).
In order of BETDAQ OFFERS, 5.5 Calipto, 14.5 Activial, 16.0 Rutherglen and 18.0 Pearl Castle fit the stats, but Rutherglen and Pearl Castle are stablemates from the 2012 winning yard and both have other Cheltenham entries.
2.05 Cheltenham, Friday (County Hurdle): Search out a young horse (five or six; they’re 8 out of 10), weighted below 11st (9-10) and trained in Ireland (6-7), preferably by a Mullins: Anthony, Thomas and Willie have bagged four since 2007.
The winning-ratings band is very narrow: here are the last eight winners by official rating: 134, 139, 139, 134, 135, 132, 135 and 131.
Ally Cascade, Art Of Payroll, Bayan, Dalasiri, Indevan, Massini’s Trap, Minella Foru, Vicky De L’Oasis and Waxie’s Dargle from 117 still in are the nine five and six year old Irish possibles in that band.
2.40 Cheltenham, Friday (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle): A tough race for a novice, with all bar one winner in the decade having previously won over 2m 5f or more and eight from nine were Graded-race winners.
Five out of eight already had a Cheltenham win on their CV, like these three from the front of the market, who all satisfy the other stats: Briar Hill, King’s Palace and Red Sherlock.
But be warned that, though Red Sherlock has been 7-1 with most bookies, he’s opposed out to 12-1 by Ladbrokes, and was 54.0 on BETDAQ when I checked the ante-post orange. He’s a lonely dog on a raft, drifted over my betting weir.
DAQMAN’S HORSES TO FOLLOW: Briar Hill
3.20 Cheltenham Gold Cup, Friday: The last 10 winners all came from the first three in the market. Nine out of 10 were aged seven, eight or nine, and five had had eight or nine steeplechase starts. Only Bobs Worth fits all these stats as the market stands now.
DAQMAN’S HORSES TO FOLLOW: Silviniaco Conti, Rocky Creek, Harry Topper
4.40 Cheltenham, Friday (Martin Pipe Hurdle): Look for youngsters (ages five and six have won them all) from the top yards (Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins) within a narrow ratings band: 133, 134, 137, 139, 141.
5.15 Cheltenham, Friday (Grand Annual) Again, forget the old timers: six out of nine had had only four to seven chase starts, and only one winner in the decade was older than nine.
But the turnkey stat is that there has been no success from 11st or above in 14 seasons (and in 21 of the last 25 years).
TODAY’S BETS: SOLIX HAS THE CLASS TO TAKE THE GRAND MILITARY GOLD CUP
2.30 Sandown Coolbeg looks on his way back to form and well in here, 10lb better off for less than two lengths with the winner, Greywell Boy, on his third in this race last year.
Recent form means he is 8.0 and Greywell Boy 2.48 in a 105% BETDAQ orange this morning, but Greywell Boy has only ever won on soft-heavy and the ground is drying out at Esher, at least on the chase course.
Both Bullet Street and Sands Cove prefer a right-handed track and Bullet Street goes well fresh. As a six-year-old novice, he could have come on a lot in his 99 days’ absence.
3.05 Sandown (Grand Military Gold Cup) There are some well-qualified riders here: Harry Wallace (40%), Judy Sole (31%) and Sally Randel (25%) – who goes for a hat-trick in the opening hurdle – all have terrific records at Sandown Park.
Alex Michael has shared this race with those three in recent years, and Lucy Gardner has already hit the target – both big shots – for me in 2014 with a Somerset and Devon Nationals double on Flying Award.
But I don’t think much of the ammunition this afternoon, a bunch of losers who could do with some old-fashioned square-bashing.
In truth, both horse and rider will have been intensively trained for this pre-Cheltenham gold cup for the military, none more so than Polisky, whose trainer Paul Nicholls is 111231 with his runners in this. They even prep for the race, Polsky in a jumpers’ bumper at Kempton recently.
Bradley had six races inside a year in Grade-3 company but has been a flatterer and has done no better dropped in class since November. He has won a Royal Military Gold Cup over today’s course and distance and should be staying on up the hill, whereas Jack Bene, Le Reve, Marley Roca and the morning favourite, Solix, have won only over shorter.
However, Solix, who has shown some class as a runner in the Coral Cup and the Jewson at Cheltenham in the past, and in his more recent fifth in the Tommy Whittle and fourth in the Great Yorkshire, has an attribute which often wins these races. He can go with the pace. Hold-up horses tend to get too far out of their ground under amateur riders.
Harry Wallace, captain, 29th Commando Regiment, Royal Horse Artillery, has competed in the Grand Military Gold Cup every year since 2003, until last year, and hasn’t ridden here since he won today’s race in 2012 on Masked Man. At the double, then, captain!
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Solix, Bradley and Polisky, which are 3.75, 4.4 and 5.0 on BETDAQ in a 106% orange as I write. Solix, at eight, has a touch of class and the potential to improve.
3.40 Sandown The changing ground sees Paul Moloney switch from heavy-going winner American Life to Valid Reason, whose stable is just emerging from the doldrums with three placed from the last four.
The three recent scorers – Spencer Lea, Waldorf Salad and Westaway – have form restricted to deep terrain, so I make Valid Reason (huge at 16.5 on BETDAQ as I write) my Outsider Of The Day, with a fair chance of a place at least, three chances in a nine-horse race.
4.35 Ayr Lackamon, Jimmy The Hat, Mister Marker and Rossini’s Dancer have acted on heavy but never won on it.
They face Wicklow Lad (up 16lb since New Year’s Day) and Stormin Exit, both winners on heavy at Ayr itself. Good chance for Stormin Exit.
5.10 Ayr New North Yorks trainer Rebecca Menzies has had her first runners this year: five winners! Can’t be bad. Samson Collonges – at 8.6 on BETDAQ – blipped last time but ran a cracker at Towcester before that.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5.8pts win BULLET STREET (2.30 Sandown)
BET 7.2pts win (nap) SOLIX (3.05 Sandown)
BET 1.3pts win and 2.7pts place VALID REASON (3.40 Sandown)
BET 5.2pts win STORMIN EXIT (4.35 Ayr)
BET 2.6pts win SAMSON COLLONGES (5.10 Ayr)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
