BACK-TO-BACK NAPS AMONG 15 WINNERS IN NINE DAYS: Back-to-back naps given strength in their Daqman write-ups have contributed to FIFTEEN winners in the last nine days in his winner-a-day-plus final fling before Cheltenham. He was very strong on both Jahbath and Amade, testing them out for his Early Birds horses-to-follow list for the Flat with the AW Championships in mind.
WON 2-1 AMADE (Thursday) nap
WON 2-5 MIRANDA (Thursday)
WON 7-5 AWAY FOR SLATES (Wednesday)
WON 8-13 JAHBATH (Wednesday) supernap
WON 3-1 TRUCKERS LODGE (Tuesday)
WON 6-4 CAPTAIN DRAKE (Monday)
WON 7-2 MOVING IN STYLE (Sunday)
WON 6-1 CAROLE’S DESTRIER(Saturday)
WON 6-1 LILLINGTON (Friday
WON 6-5 CHRISTOPHER WOOD (Friday) supernap
WON 3-10 ZMHAR (Friday)
WON 11-8 FOREST OF DEAN (Thursday) supernap
WON 11-4 THE DELLERCHECKOUT (Thursday)
WON 11-4 VIOLA PARK (Wednesday)
WON 2-1 SINGING THE BLUES (Wednesday)
SEE HOW THEY WON: TWO FESTIVAL FALSE FAVOURITES: Today Daqman looks a week ahead to Day 4 of the Cheltenham Festival, with his See How They Won stats and facts, finding two more favourites with problems after Champ earlier the week.
6.2 BETDAQ BETTORS TRIUMPH
1.30 Cheltenham, next Friday (Triumph Hurdle) The favourite, Sir Erec, has picked up a stone bruise but trainer Joseph O’Brien says he’s ‘confident’ the classy dual hurdles winner will be in the line-up.
O’Brien also has the second favourite, Fakir d’Oudairies, but another stablemate, Band Of Outlaws, 8-1 with Betfair and Paddy Power last night, was 45.0 on BETDAQ, so as to suggest that he’s not an intended runner. Keep away until it’s made clear.
On the other hand, if you are inclined to swerve Sir Erec for his closest rival, Fakir d’Oudaires was 3-1 and 7-2 with bookmakers but a big value 6.2 on BETDAQ. It pays to evaluate the exchange market.
2.10 Cheltenham, Friday (County Hurdle) Expect a big-odds outsider to win this: 20-1 (four times), 25-1 and 33-1 in the decade; SP only once in single figures and favourite bankers are skint.
If last year’s winner, Mohaayed, is tempting you at around 20-1, be warned that no horse has scored twice in this race since 1946.
2.50 Cheltenham, Friday (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle) Another race that often goes to outsiders (33-1 SP three times since 2010).
Seven out of 12 winners had raced at Cheltenham before: 10 out of 12 had scored in a Graded race; 9 out of 12 had won at around 3m.
Look for experienced horses (five or more hurdles runs) among the outsiders on the day.
3.30 Cheltenham, Friday (Gold Cup) Rain has seen Native River in from 9.2 to 6.0 on BETDAQ. Might Bite and Thistlecrack have had their chances; 11 of the last 12 winners were aged seven to nine.
There had been Graded race wins for 12 out of 12, and 12 out of 12 had also raced at Cheltenham before; 12 out of 12 had won at 3m or further, and 12 out of 12 had won at least two chases.
4.10 Cheltenham, Friday (Foxhunter Challenge Cup) Pacha Du Polder (16-1 and 25-1 winner) goes for the hat-trick yet somehow will again be a double-figure price. He was 20.0 on BETDAQ when I checked the ante-post orange.
Caid Du Berlais, fifth last year, has run six times at the festival, but is still only 10, and was backed during the week.
4.50 Cheltenham Friday (Grand Annual) The favourite all round is Magic Saint, talked up by Paul Nicholls this morning, but a five-year-old has won only once since 1954.
A PRECIOUS NAPS HAT-TRICK
2.00 Sandown I could get 75-100 on BETDAQ for Precious Cargo, back to form on the last day for Nicky Henderson, who has won this race four times. Supernap over hurdles to follow my AW naps double.
3.40 Sandown (Grand Military Gold Cup) In the good old, bad old days, the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Ten Up won this aged 12, and Special Cargo’s hat-trick was achieved when he was 11, 12 and 13.
But, following the trend everywhere, younger horses now take this chase, with only three winners over the age of 10 in 27 seasons.
Le Reve is back to form and Rathlin Rose has been first and second in this race, but last year’s winning jockey has switched to the Royal Artillery winner, Carlos Du Fruitier, aiming to land back-to-back wins for seven-year-olds. I took 3.8 offers on BETDAQ.
4.10 Sandown Darebin and Rock On Rocky were the last two winners of this 2m handicap chase, both from small fields. Rocky is now well handicapped but Ardmayle should get revenge on Sandown form with Darebin, who was well beaten by Swift Crusader in December.
Tom Scudamore takes over on Swift Crusader as Adam Wedge switches to Market Rasen winner Cesar Collonges. Hard to know what to read into that, if anything, but Swift Crusader’s 7.2 on BETDAQ appealed most.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.00 Sandown (supernap)
BET 20pts win PRECIOUS CARGO
3.40 Sandown (win 20)
BET 7pts win CARLOS DU FRUITIER
4.10 Sandown (win 20)
BET 3.25pts win SWIFT CRUSADER
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