237 POINTS PROFIT FROM 20 WINS: The list gets longer! In a Tuesday-Thursday spree at Newmarket and Cheltenham, Daqman has now notched up 20 winning bets, which yesterday included a Triple Whammy – win, place and lay in the same race – and a 35-1 winning double. The total profit is now 237 points.
35-1 WAS HIS FOURTH DOUBLE UP: Daring to oppose a Ballydoyle favourite takes his lays total to 10 out of 11. He’s had four doubles and a treble in among this amazing batch of results:
WON 8-1 Indian Stream (win and place)
WON 8-1 Thikriyaat (win and place)
WON 10-3 Mahsoob (win and place)
WON 3-1 Ibn Malik (nap)
WON 3-1 Jadaayil (win)
WON 3-1 Linguistic (win)
WON 3-1 Magical Memory (doubled with Indian Stream)
WON 13-8 Mister Miyagi (nap)
WON 5-4 Nathra (win)
WON 1-2 Gifted Master (hub of treble with Mister Miyagi and Ibn Malik)
3rd 11-1 Golden Reign (place)
2nd 6-1 Harlequeen (place; 18-1 Ladbrokes forecast also possible with Linguistic)
WON (lay) Landofhopeandglory (unplaced 15-8)
DAQMAN LEADS PRICEWISE 10-4 ALREADY: For the second day running, he scored a 2-0 win over his arch-rival Pricewise of the Racing Post, taking his lead to 10-4 this season already, with 307-120 now the overall.
SCOTTISH NATIONAL ABC: TREBLE BID AFTER 50-1 AND 33-1: Today read Daqman’s ABC Guide to tomorrow’s Scottish National in which he’s hunting up a treble, following success in the Irish National (Rogue Angel WON 16-1 from 34.0) and Liverpool National (Rule The World 33-1 from 50.0).
32.0 BET WINS 200 FOR NATIONAL HAT-TRICK
4.10 Ayr, Saturday (Scottish Grand National) Can I make it three Nationals on the bounce? No pressure then.
Rain could be a spoiler again. Highest rating of most of the winners is around 141. That would be off 10st 13lb at Saturday’s weights but, on soft ground, I’m taking 10st 9lb as the ceiling, which covers 10 of the last 11 winners.
There’s a class horse at the top of the handicap, and we need class to beat him from somewhere down the weights (class 1 and 2 winners are marked with a ‘C’).
Of course, we might not beat him at all: he’s an old friend of ours, and I’ll sum up his chances tomorrow. But right now, I’ll stick to the stats:
A Carries 10st 9lb or less (10 out of 11)
B Aged 8 to 11 (18-21)
C Won class 1 or 2 chase (10-12)
D Won 3m plus chase (11-12)
E No more than six runs (11-12)
X Trainer in form
ABCDEX Tour Des Champs
Nigel Twiston-Davies, who had a good Cheltenham and a good Aintree, excels in preparing stayers, winning this with the stout and reliable Hello Bud (2009).
Crafty Twiston has Tour Des Champs (at 32.0 in the BETDAQ orange this morning) and Cogry ideally placed in Saturday’s handicap with strong claimers taking their weights down to rock bottom.
Tour Des Champs was fourth in the Scottish National in 2013 on good ground when only six years old, but showed when winning the 2015 Welsh National Trial that he’s best served by plenty of cut, and he came back to form on the soft when he romped away with the Sussex National last month.
I think the layers have got him wrong. Their book is top heavy with horses that are unlikely to give the weight on soft ground and, on form, and on trainer ability, Tour Des Champs is half what they offer, more like a 16-1 shot.
To win 100 points that would cost me 6.25 points. Let’s go for a triple bonus by playing at the odds I want (16-1) at the stake that would win me 100 (6.25) but at the huge bonus offer of 32.0.
So that’s a Pot Of Gold bet 31 x 6.25 = 193.75 win potential.
To round it up to win 200, we’ll stake 6.45 points. Well, no point in celebrating two Nationals with a cup of cold tea; let’s get the champagne out (and maybe another bottle tomorrow). Look out in Saturday’s column for my final verdict.
ABCDE Alvarado
Twice fourth in the Liverpool Grand National but missed the cut this year. Has the high cruising speed that often wins the Scottish version.
ABCDE Highland Lodge
Strapping, handsome horse who won the Becher Chase over the National fences in December, and another we were disappointed not to see in the Aintree line-up.
ABCDE Milborough
Unseated rider in this last year, attempting a big double after winning Newcastle’s Eider Chase in the February. Never in the picture in this year’s Eider but back to form on the last day, Has conditions to suit, 7lb lower now.
ABDEX Ballycula
A faller, when favourite, and going well on the final circuit of the Eider Chase but got back on track on the last day. Some 20 lengths behind Cause Of Causes at levels for the 2015 NH Chase at Cheltenham, so they are theoretically weighted to dead-heat, though first-time blinkers could squeeze a few more pounds out of him.
ABDEX Folsom Blue
All Fethard friends who have watched Mouse Morris’s two Nationals already this year, with Rogue Angel (Irish) and Rule The World (Aintree) have kept the bunting up and the corkscrew out for what would be a phenomenal hat-trick if Folsom Blue could take this.
Grand National trial winner at Punchestown two years ago when only seven, fourth in the Leinster National, third in the PP Chase, and fourth behind Rogue Angel at Fairyhouse this year, he’s a little stick of dynamite who belies his small frame, and another brave try cannot be ruled out.
ABDEX Heathfield
Tony Martin, once the most feared of Irish raiders on an English handicap, has had a season to forget but his string is back to form with two out of two in the last few days.
See how he goes at Ballinrobe this evening, as he bids for a hat-trick, before risking an old punt on Heathfield, winner last Spring of the Ladbrokes Ireland Chase at Punchestown (3m 6f) and back to form with a sneaky prep over hurdles on the last day.
ABDEX Sun Cloud
North Yorkshire National winner (2014) and placed in similar races before runner-up to smart young stayer Vieux Lion Rouge in November. Needs to bounce back after poor efforts since.
ABD Berea Boru
Has a 19lb rise for a hat-trick completed in March, including defeat of Tour Des Champs at Ffos Las.
ABEDX Full Jack
Highly rated as a novice in 2013 but form fell away until class-3 win on the last day shot his rating up 18lb and he just gets into this.
ACDEX Pineau De Re
The 2014 Aintree Grand National winner missed the cut for this year’s race. Despite his age, he was still fast enough to win over hurdles as his Aintree prep.
ADEX Cogry
Same stable as Tour des Champs. Fell four out in this last year when the sounder surface was against him. Sixth behind Cause Of Causes in NH Chase last March and now 24lb better, in theory more than enough to turn the tables, and third in Midlands Grand National in March. Still only seven.
ADE Straidnahanna
Potential National horse in the making for Sue and Harvey Smith but still only seven, prefers a sound surface and the yard is going through a lean spell.
BCDEX Dolatulo, Masters Hill, Measureofmydreams, Royale Knight
BCDE Cause Of Causes, Emperors Choice, Fine Rightly, Midnight Prayer, Shotgun Paddy
BCE Seeyouatmidnight
BDEX Golden Chieftain, Goodtoknow, Spookydooky
BDE Milansbar, Top Wood
CDEX Vyta De Roc
DEX A Good Skin
DE Vicente
DX Gold Futures
SHADOW LOOKS A DAQ MULIPLES BANKER
I should be well over 300 points up. But I reined in my stake over the last three days to a win-20 maximum, as you would for Classic-trial meetings held in soft ground.
Theoretically, win-30 would have given me one third more.
Racing is all about what might have been and what you could have done. It follows that the main thing is to do something (you can’t win if you’re not in), but only something you feel comfortable with.
And to all those who turn their nose up at stats – as featured in the ABC above – may I ask where your own betting stats are, and how they are doing?
I’ll be talking more about that this season; suffice it to say at this opportune moment, my worst meetings for winners are Brighton (can’t remember the last one) and Bath.
I keep a record of all my bets (so should you) and I know that they generally go down the plug-hole at Bath. It’s my job to make an effort there tonight with one or two decent races (it’s been raining stair-rods there, of course).
But, not for the first time, or the last, a jumps card takes over from the Flat (turf), because of the abandonment of Newbury.
2.00 Ayr Gordon Elliott, who has Cause Of Causes in tomorrow’s Scottish National, saddles a big, galloping type here in Jetstream Jack, who should have a future over fences.
But he’s unlikely to cope with Welsh Shadow in this little novice hurdle. The Dan Skelton favourite was fifth to Yorkhill and Yanworth in the Neptune at the Cheltenham Festival.
If the vital criterion is not what beat you but what you beat, that makes just as strong a case for Welsh Shadow who, like Tour Des Champs, is by Robin des Champs. He had six winners of 26 races behind him at Cheltenham. He’s a Daq Multiples banker.
2.35 Ayr Only Captain Brown (Sam Twiston-Davies booked) has scored at this class-3 level, but whatever wins this is going to have to catch Clan Legend, a CD winner who is up more than a stone for fine performances this year.
But I reckon the Irish will have something to say in this, not least Megan Carberry, whose 5lb claim will help Apterix, trained by Brian Ellison for whom she has a 46% strike rate.
And Stuart Crawford gives Barry Geraghty one of his two rides today on Craiganboy, an experienced novice who stepped up quite a bit in a big field on the last day. Barry’s no-nonsense style could be what he needs for further progress.
My verdict is based on the BETDAQ marxket, where Captain Brown is a lonely dog on a raft, not wanted at 14.5. That’s over my betting weir.
Apterix is a couple of points too short at 4.1. So I shall dutch Clan Legend (5.9) and Craiganboy (7.0).
HEY, DAQMAN! NOW YOU’RE TAKINGRISKS!
3.10 Ayr The handicapper has taken two mighty swipes at Roycano, up 24lb, including 13lb for losing a race (unseated rider)!
And he’s upped Sevenballs Of Fire 6lb for falling when he might have beaten Takingrisks at Carlisle!
It’s a very tight handicap, just 2lb separating the top seven, with Nicky Henderson (Birch Hill) finding himself with top weight, as five of the others have hired claimers.
At the offers, I still fancy Takingrisks (9.4 on BETDAQ), with his trainer Nicky Richards three out of four in this race.
3.45 Ayr How unlucky can you get! Definitly Red goes for his Cheltenham trials at Warwick and Wetherby and runs into two subsequent festival winners, Blaklion and Black Hercules.
Then the third black day dawns at the festival when he doesn’t take to the fences and falls in the 4m NH Chase.
He might just have a change of fortune today, back to his winning trip, back to a flat track, as a Graded-placed novice against two other Cheltenham losers, Double Shuffle and Full Shift (needs a sounder surface).
4.45 Ayr Valyssa Monterg, 16lb higher than when she won at the Galway Festival; Run Ructions Run switched back to hurdles from an uninspiring novice-chase career.
It looks as if it’s down to Cheltenham again, and the the Mares Hurdle to give us a result. Desert Queen, Rons Dream and Morello Royale finished 7th, 9th and 11th respectively.
Desert Queen tried to have the legs of them, still leading around two out in the race won by the mighty Vroum Vroum Mag.
She’s a tasty 8.4 with my worry, Girly Girl –a hidden horse here – at 8.4. Another dutch I hope will turn into a correct forecast
BATH DRAW FAVOURS 14.0 SHOT IFFRANESIA
6.20 Bath Here we are, then, my second worst track for tipping after Brighton. And me a water sign! But no wonder I don’t like the place: big-field sprints on a kinky track.
Iffranesia won first time out last season and improved to close her campaign with a Listed win in France.
Three-year-olds (2-10) have to be really classy (Enticing 2007) to win this and, though conceding weight all round, Iffranesia shouldn’t be 14.0, with the ground and the draw in the mare’s favour.
BETDAQ TIPS (staked to win 20 points, except ante-post bet)
BET 4pts win CLAN LEGEND and 3.3pts win CRAIGANBOY (2.35 Ayr)
BET 2.3pts win and place TAKING RISKS (3.10 Ayr)
BET 6pts win (nap) DEFINITLY RED (3.45 Ayr)
BET 2.8pts win GIRLY GIRL and 2.5pts win DESERT QUEEN (4.45 Ayr)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pts win doubles and 1pt win treble WELSH SHADOW (2.00 Ayr), TAKINGRISKS (3.10 Ayr) and DEFINITLY RED (3.45 Ayr)
BET 1.5pts win and place IFFRANESIA (6.20 Bath)
POT OF GOLD (ANTE-POST) BET: 6.45pts win TOUR DES CHAMPS at 32.0 (Scottish Grand National, Ayr tomorrow)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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