DON POLI TICKS ALL THE GOLD BOXES: Carlingford Lough bids for a hat-trick in Sunday’s Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown but, as Daqman’s ABC guide reveals today, Don Poli ticks all the boxes.
TODAY’S NAP RUNS AT SOUTHWELL: Daqman examines some trappy handicaps at Kempton and shies away from the heavy ground at Bangor, concluding that a nap on an in-form AW trainer at Southwell is as good as it gets today.
SUNDAY’S IRISH GOLD CUP ABC
4.00 Leopardstown, Sunday (Irish Gold Cup) Launched as the Vincent O’Brien Gold Cup in 1987, two and three wins by the same horse are commonplace.
Carvills Hill and Nick The Brief scored twice, while even treble scorers Jodami and Beef Or Salmon were surpassed by a four-timer from Florida Pearl.
So a hat-trick for Carlingford Lough, who has won it for the last two years, would fit the norm, though one normality – success for Willie Mullins, who has had his own sequences of four, three and two – has been broken.
He doesn’t have a runner on Sunday. Other winner-finding stats:
A Aged 6 to 9 or previous winner (9/9)
B Grade-1 winner (9/10)
C Winner at 3m or more (9/10)
D Had raced since Christmas (10/10)
E Ran in the Lexus (8/10)
X Trainer in form
ABCDEX Don Poli
Novice hat-trick completed in the RSA at Chekltenham before winning the 2015 Lexus (second this season). Third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and same place again behind Carlingford Lough in the Punchestown Gold Cup. Officially rated 161, third best to Carlingford Lough and Sizing John.
ABCDE More Of That
Described as ‘the best I’ve trained’ by Jonjo O’Neill but, though back-to-back gheltenham winner in the autumn of 2015, he was only third in the RSA and has struggled since (sixth in the Lexus).
ABCDE Zabana
The Punchestown Champion Novice hero in April, beating Outlander, but 16 lengths behind the same horse in the Lexus in December, after a bad mistake at the sixth fence.
ABCD Carlingford Lough
Looking for a hat-trick of wins in this race, completing the double last year as a 12-lengths winner on heavy ground, beating Road To Riches and Fine Rightly. Defeated Djakadam for the Punchestown Gold Cup last Spring. Top rated 166.
ACD Fine Rightly
A winner twice last Spring at a lower level after third in this a year ago. Ran a poor race in first time tongue-tie in the Lexus and back in a hood.
AD Sizing John
Four times placed behind Douvan (between December 2015 and December 2016) until stepped out his shadow to win Kinloch Brae Chase on the last day, but that was 2m 4f. Rated 164.
ADE Arctic Skipper
Lowest rated off 148 here, a Grade-2 winner over 2m but well behind Fine Rightly and Outlander (Lexus) over 3m either side of that.
AC Minella Rocco
Winner of the 4m NH Chase at Cheltenham, beating subsequent Newbury Hennessy winner, Native River, and running second to Many Clouds at Aintree in December when fell last.
BCDE Road To Riches
Cheltenham Gold Cup (2015) third followed Lexus success. Two years on, he was only eighth in December’s Lexus but that was his first run after a spinal op. Last season he was second in this Irish Gold Cup and third in the Cheltenham Ryanair.
CX Empire Of Dirt
Leapt two stone in the ratings with three out of three in 2016, from the Leopardstown Chase to a Grade 3 at the Cheltenham festival for Colm Murphy to his Ladbrokes Troytown at Navan for Gordon Elliott in November. Not seen since but clearly more than a handicapper and has twice scored after long holidays.
MEMO TO MYSELF: BACK MEMMON!
2.10 Kempton Horses aged seven and eight look a bit out of place in a novice hurdle – only one has won in the decade – though Get On The Yager commands respect, dropped in class after, literally, failing to make the Grade.
His defeat on soft by Willoughby Court at Warwick last month contrasts markedly with his 13-lengths slamming of the same horse on good at Market Rasen in November.
Such are the vagaries of betting in novice hurdles that the punter has to decide: was that turnaround because of the ground difference; has Willoughby Court gone forward and Get On The Yager backward?
In fact, Willopughby Court is up 13lb for the Warwick success; Get On the Yager down a pound.
The second decision the punter has to make is this: is it damning for Get On The Yager to be dropped five grades or does it make him a certainty in this company?
For two of the top yards, Peak To Peak is also dropped from Graded level and Silent Steps is better than the bare form.
But the strong one in the BETDAQ market this morning was Agamemmon – Greek scholars cringe! – who has progressed from Point to bumper and to a promising run over a trip too short on the last day. I took 5.0 with a saver on the favourite.
3.10 Kempton The handicapper has dropped Vyta Du Roc 9lb for his three runs this winter. The horse has been raced from 2m 4f to 4m, and the tongue-tie tried on the last day has been removed.
It all adds up to a big warning sign, similar to the one that’s hovered over another nearly horse, Gevrey Chambertin. Two hurdles wins since December, 2014, are a poor reply to those of us who once thought him a champion novice chaser (blush blush).
Cloudy Bob showed a bit of form here at Kemptin in January but (like Rhapando) is a class-4 animal who’s been struggling a grade higher.
Gorsky island is a glass horse but he can win at this level when fresh, albeit only at Ludlow thus far, says his CV.
In cheekpieces now, Upswing could bounce back from his string of parking tickets (POPP), as is the wont of Jonjo O’Neill horses, and the mare Blameitalonmyroots might have won at Ascot (this grade) in November but a bad jump at the last lamed her.
Hat-trick hopeful Brandon Hill (3.6 on BETDAQ) will be hard for them to catch, with Richard Johnson booked to continue his sequence.
Oliver Sherwood has very mixed form in the last fortnight, and has gone from 1123021 to P2PUU, but has ‘Blameit’, a 10.0 offer, on a handy mark here. As in the 2.10 race, I’ll try for the forecast with two bets, one a stakes saver.
4.15 Kempton What a waste of £20.000 in prizemoney (you could almost build a bungalow on green-belt land with that) as just two runners line up for this Graduatiion Chase.
With Politologue 1.15 this morning, the whole £20,000 on wouldn’t buy your train ticket to see him at Cheltenham for which, now hooded he must somehow improve his chance of running in the JLT, the Arkle looking more like dream.
NAP: John Gosden has a 50% strike rate at Southwell and he’s been sweeping up the maidens. Trenchard at 4.3 this morning is a speculative nap in the face of a bog at Bangor and all that tricky stuff I’ve been through at Kempton. Midweek has been more than mid-weak this week, and this is the worst Friday I can remember for some time.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each backed to win 20 points)
BACK 6pts win (nap) TRENCHARD (2.00 Southwell)
BACK 5pts win AGAMEMMON and 4pts win (stakes saver) GET ON THE YAGER (2.10 Kempton)
BACK 2pts win and place BLAMEITALONMYROOTS and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) BRANDON HILL (3.10 Kempton)
BACK 4pts win WILD APPROACH (6.45 Newcastle)
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