MODUS OPERANDI FOR WINNERS! How do you back winners? As ever, your modus operandi is to follow Daqman’s free bets on BETDAQ: short prices, long shots and lays all do well. He made a profit yesterday for the third time in four days to recommended stakes, with a banker and a 4-1 hit:
WON 1-2 Modus (banker nap)
WON 4-1 Sternrubin
FIVE BANKERS UP OUT OF SIX: Modus was landing a second banker for Daqman, who has reeled off five out of six – in fact, five in a row, still standing – in the last two weeks:
WON 1-3 Modus
WON 4-11 Master Jake
WON 11-10 Sir Des Champs
Fell Kilcrea Vale
WON 8-11 Vaniteux
WON 1-2 Modus
HE’S ALSO DEFENDING 12 LAYS IN A ROW: Daqman also has 12 consecutive lays in sequence and is 8-1 up on Pricewise for value bets in the early days of the NH season, as he attempts tomorrow to follow up his 20-1 Hennessy winner of a year ago.
SQUEEZE THE ORANGE! Daqman finds a race today in which he tries to squeeze more out of the BETDAQ orange and reduce his commission to 2%, on a day when he plays up his winnings and steps up his fixed profit-yield to 30 points per bet.
MON DIEU! HARRY HAS RIDDEN FIVE OUT OF SIX
12.25 Newbury A penalty hasn’t been carried to victory in this since 2007, which counts against Ardamir, trained by Alan King, who has won it recently with Smad Place.
Four times a winner in the decade is Paul Nicholls, whose Copain De Classe gets 10lb from Ardamir. But this is a big chasing type, and the negative for Darebin is that he’s very excitable and could take a keen hold.
Maybe their profiles open the door to Kasakh Noir, another dark horse (!) from a yard that has landed three winners in three days, and has had a 20%-plus strike-rate overall in its three seasons: 5.7 BETDAQ offers this morning.
12.55 Newbury Young horses have always won this, and Harry Cobden, who rides the four-year-old Mon Successeur, is currently on a four-timer.
Cobden is the Harry Kane of claimers, scoring five out of six with form in the last fortnight, still standing, of 203110111, including Champion Hurdle hope Old Guard in the Greatwood for Paul Nicholls. He still has 10 winners to go before losing his 5lb allowance.
1.30 Newbury Philip Hobbs farms this – he had three winners in six years (2007-12) – and the second and third behind Sykes at Chepstow had both won two of their previous three starts.
Missed Approach scored three in a row last year before coming unstuck at Wetherby when the stable was out of form.
The yard won yesterday’s bumper on this course at 7-1 and, from a family of smart stayers, Missed Approach should do well for stepping up to 3m (he won a Point at the trip).
But with Forthefunofit there’s a question-mark about the trip, while Open Hearted has been chasing and hasn’t scored over hurdles since the Spring of 2013.
ACTIVIAL JUMPS AT LAST FOR Mr FIFTY PER CENT
2.05 Newbury Denman, Bobs Worth, Coneygree. Winners of this read like a who’s-who of top chasers past and present.
Activial ran in seven successive Graded hurdles and was placed four times – won once – always with the proviso, amid much patience and preparation, that he’d make a much better chaser.
Trainer Harry Fry is just now scoring at around 50%, with current figures of 110112201120130.
Maximiser has already started chasing under Rules, with a fine effort to get within half a length of Silsol, whose next novice chase will be a hat-trick mission.
Three Musketeers, third in a Grade 1 at the Aintree Festival in the Spring, was made favourite over fences to beat Sametegal at Hungtindon but was run out of it. The question mark over them both is whether they will bounce after that reappearance from long lay-offs.
2.40 Newbury Top-weights (anything with more than 11st 5lb) have had a lean time (none in the last decade) and favourites, too: just one – joint – market leader at SP.
They’ve latched onto Upepito as market leader this morning on his second at Wincanton as proof of his improvement and he looks tempting off bottomweight but, in fact, he’s raced off a similar mark since February, 2014.
Howlongisafoothas stepped up 16lb since this time last year, though you get the impression that this is as far as he’ll go in his career. Similarly, Kings Lad is consistent in this grade but hasn’t won since his novice days and this is his seventh consecutive race off 145. Monetaire’s best performances are round the rugged Cheltenham course. Lost Legend’s form – after a reappearance run – when dropped from Graded or Listed is 10121, and lhe ooks the outsider to back at 22.0 in the BETDAQ orange, as I write.
Niceonefrankie has won on his return for two years running. He was late back into training this year but the stable is in form and looks to have this by default, as nothing else stands out.
SQUEEZE THE ORANGE FOR SOME BUCK’S FIZZ..
3.15 Newbury Front-runner Champers On Ice is one to play Squeeze, Lay or Trade with. Squeeze?
Well, it’s an open race of young novice-hurdlers and 2.88 looks plenty short enough as I write. If I want to oppose him, I can lay him at around 3.1.
Or I can back him with a view to trading when he’s clear leader and looks like winning at long odds-on in running.
But I would want to try to squeeze more out of the BETDAQ orange by offering 3.00 this morning, so hopefully reducing my commission on a winner to 2%.
I like to choose a horse like this to flex my mouse muscles and feel my way around a market. You might fill your wallet three different ways. The champers is on ice and the orange can be made to fizz..
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points)
BET 6.3pts win KASAKH NOIR and 2.3pts win (stakes saver) COPAIN DE CLASSE (12.25 Newbury)
BET 11pts win (nap) MON SUCCESSEUR (12.55 Newbury)
BET 8.3pts win SYKES and 2.3pts win (stakes saver) MISSED APPROACH (1.30 Newbury)
BET 10pts win ACTIVIAL (2.05 Newbury)
TRIPLE WHAMMY (win, place and lay): LAY 5pts UPEPITO, and BET 5pts win NICEONEFRANKIE, and 1.4pts win and place LOST LEGEND (2.40 Newbury)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 2pts win doubles and 1pt win treble Mon Successeur (12.55 Newbury), Activial (2.05 Newbury) and Champers On Ice (3.15 Newbury)
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