BACK-TO-BACK NAPS BOOST VALUE HUNT: Daqman yesterday landed a third double in Christmas week, State Man giving him back-to-back naps. The highlights have been BETDAQ offers bigger than SP and well over the odds required, and today he reveals how to make the value create even better profits.
Thursday: back-to-back naps up
WON 5-6 GAILLARD DU MESNIL
WON 4-6 STATE MAN (nap)
Wednesday: profit on the day 16.80
WON 7-1 HOME BY THE LEE (BETDAQ value at 8.9 taken)
WON 2-1 CONFLATED (nap)
Boxing Day: profit on the day 26.35
WON 11-4 BRAVEMANSGAME (2nd Royal Pagaille 12-1)
WON 4-1 INTO OVERDRIVE (BETDAQ value at 6.8 taken)
FINAL-FLING BETS TODAY: Daqman prefers established form for the Last Fling marathon test at Haydock today, with two against the field at 9.0 and 11.0. The nap is at Taunton.
STAKING TO THE BETDAQ VALUE
Back the price not the horse (Part 2). In the Daqman search for value, my two highlights in Christmas week were detailed yesterday. That’s what to look for, but how best to back them?|
INTO OVERDRIVE (WON 4-1 from BETDAQ 6.8). I thought he had a 2-1 chance of winning the Rowland Meyrick.
If you reckon 2-1 but there are offers of 6.8, then go for the value by staking to your own valuation.
Let your fixed-profit yield be 20 points; then you need around 3.4 to win 20 at 6.8. But you priced up the horse at 2-1, which would require 10 to win 20.
Stick to your guns and keep your 10-point stake, taking the 6.8, and you will win 58 points instead of 20.
HOME BY THE LEE (WON 7-1 from BETDAQ 8.9) you thought was a 5-1 shot. To win 20 at 5-1, you need 4pts. But stake to the BETDAQ value, 4pts at 8.9, and you get 31.60.
TAUNTON: SAINT’S A LIVE BEST BET
⭕ 2.15 Taunton After their four out of six on Wednesday, I’m trusting the Skeltons with my naps hat-trick in this mares’ novices.
LAYS LOGIC: Credrojava is a useful Presenting out of a Kalanisi mare, so bred for a trip, and I’m a bit surprised to see Harry Fry drop her back to the minimum, stepping up in class.
But she should be placed so it’s a free, maybe even rewarding, way of boosting her experience and potentially opening up her options.
I can’t fancy Lutinebella, who’s done very well but she’s six and what a difference a year makes in novice grade.
FORM: The year-younger She’s A Saint is a strong traveler who massively reversed previous form with Carole’s Pass when they returned to Newbury in November.
Unfortunately, she ran up against Nicky Henderson’s unbeaten Luccia, who’s price was afterwards shortened to around 4-1 for the Dawn Run at Cheltenham. There’s no Luccia in today’s race.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 2.3 She’s A Saint
HAYDOCK: RAIN FOR CASTING VOTE
⭕ 2.30 Haydock Ben Pauling has had a couple of Christmas crackers, including Bangers And Cash in the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen.
He has a trio of Taunton runners today but needs the soft ground at Haydock for his lone raider to Lancashire, Fine Casting.
So highly regarded that he’s been favourite six races running, he had back-to-back success at this time last year, needing two races to run into form.
He’s had those two starters for this season at Cheltenham (an excellent second in a big field) and Doncaster on good ground. Should be fighting fit now and will relish the Haydock mud.
The handicapper seemed vindicated in rating front-runner Jungle Jack on 123, despite a hat-trick, only having to nudge him up just a couple of pounds to see him beaten at Bangor.
But Jack stepped up and made most here at Haydock on his return in November, turning over an odds-on shot, albeit in a small field. Punished 9lb he now has to give 11lb to Fine Casting.
Stainsby Girl will probably keep Jungle Jack generous; she made almost all over the CD a grade higher in class 2 but is eight now, nearly nine, and giving the years to Jungle Jack and Fine Casting.
BETDAQ value 3.7 Fine Casting
BETDAQ 9.0 AND 11.0 FINAL FLINGS
⭕ 3.00 Haydock (Last Fling Handicap) The 2019 winner of this, Lord Du Mesnil, was beaten in last year’s Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby by Good Boy Bobby.
‘Classy, hard as nails and a dependable jumper’ was how Raceform described him that day, and I had a couple of bob on Bobby at a big price for the Grand National but he was badly hampered out of it at Aintree.
Today is his first try at a trip since before or after the National, and the handicapper has generously dropped him 6lb. Even if he wins today, he could still get in below 11st at Aintree.
The danger must be Haydock specialist, Enqarde, who beat Tuesday’s Kempton winner Remastered on the soft here a year or so back in the Tommy Whittle.
He’s dropped to within 4lb of his winning mark that day and, as long as he’s over his own attempt at the National fences – behind in the Becher Chase a month back – should go well, now that trainer Dr Richard Newland has returned to better form.
LAYS LOGIC: Conquredalofeurope has shown gradual improvement for James Motherway and new trainer Donald McCain but is 0-8 over fences, with an overall strike rate of 1-13.
Hold That Taught is another with promise but who has yet to deliver very much (1-9 over fences), and Venetia Williams has previously won this (in 2015 and 2017) with seasoned campaigners.
BETDAQ value 9 Good Boy Bobby, 11 Enqarde
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.15 Taunton (win 12 nap)
BET 9.25pts win SHE’S A SAINT
2.30 Haydock (win 12)
BET 4.4pts win FINE CASTING
3.00 Haydock (win 50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 6.25pts win GOOD BOY BOBBY
BET 5pts win ENQARDE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
