THIRD NAP FROM DAQMAN AT FABULOUS 4-1 Daqman made it four winning days out of five and his third winning nap since Sunday with a superb strike yesterday, Rene’s Girl (WON 4-1). He’s hit them for six:
WON 7-1 JENNYS SURPRISE (Sunday, 9.8 on BETDAQ)
WON 5-1 UNISON (Tuesday, 8.0 on BETDAQ)
WON 4-1 RENE’S GIRL (Thursday, nap)
WON 3-1 SHANROE SANTOS (Monday, 5.0 on BETDAQ)
WON 5-4 MONBEG NOTORIOUS (Sunday, supernap)
WON 6-5 BLOTTOS (Monday, nap)
IS THIS THE BETDAQ BANKER TOMORROW? Today Daqman looks at the stats on favourites and stable success for the final day of Cheltenham. But first the supposed banker of the BETDAQ meeting at Kempton tomorrow.
FILL IN CYRNAME ON THE FORM..
The pendulum swings. Politologue who landed a hat-trick as a six-year-old last autumn and Frodon who won the Pendil Novices’ Chase last year aged five are typical of Paul Nicholls young improvers. Now the Pendil has come round again.
And Paul could saddle one of his best yet, when Cyrname lines up for the BETDAQ Now 2% Commission Novices’ Chase tomorrow. It’s the Pendil race in disguise. But no disguising its potential impact.
Nicholls has been responsible for seven winners of the race in only 10 seasons, and Philip Hobbs won it with Captain Chris (2011) who went on to win the Arkle at Cheltenham.
Tomorrow’s BETDAQ Pendil could be Cyrname’s Arkle. ‘He has a huge engine but has been difficult to train,’ says Paul.
‘His Scilly Isles second – beaten a neck in a Grade 1– was a huge improvement. I’m minded that with horses like him they are going to be the future.’
One of his rivals from the Captain Chris yard will be For Good Measure, a decent hurdler but full brother to Balthazar King, a Cheltenham cross-country champion.
NO JOLLY GOOD IN COUNTY HURDLE
Back or lay? Cheltenham Festival favourites present the same conundrum every year. Here I continue to check out some of the facts.
This is the final day, Friday, for which there were live BETDAQ markets this morning for the Gold Cup, Triumph Hurdle and Albert Bartlett.
1.30 Cheltenham, Friday, March 16 (Triumph Hurdle) Favourites drew a blank for years then in the last THREE seasons won every time!
The Irish won with monotony. Now they are just 3-10 in the decade. Nicky Henderson 3, Paul Nicholls 2 are the top yards.
2.10 Cheltenham, Friday, March 16 (County Hurdle) Used to be a great race for lightweights at a price, and big double-figure odds remain the norm.
But, though FAVOURITES BLANKED, higher weights took over, as in so many handicaps these days. Only two winners below 10st 11lb in 10 years. W Mullins 4, P. Nicholls 2
2.50 Cheltenham, Friday, March 16 (Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle) THREE winning favourites since 2007. Trainers: the usual suspects.
3.30 Cheltenham, Friday, March 16 (Gold Cup) FIVE winning favourites in 12 seasons, but only one winner bigger than 8-1. P Nicholls 3, N Henderson 2.
4.10 Cheltenham, Friday, March 16 (Foxhunter) Just TWO outright favourites. Winners from 13-8 to 33-1. E Bolger 2, R Sweeney 2.
4.50 Cheltenham, Friday, March 16 (Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap) Winning favourites very rare. ONE every 10 years or so. Trainerds: W Millins 3, P Nicholls 2
5.30 Cheltenham, Friday, March 16 (Grand Annual) Favourites even rarer. ONE every 12 years or so. Double-figure odds up to 40-1 in seven years of the last nine.
MAY DAY IN WARWICK BUMPER
3.40 Exeter The course survived two inspections but looking at the weather forecast Jack Frost is likely to have his say in the coming week.
The 3.40 is a decent class 3 handicap in which the lightly raced Kalahari Queen might prove best. She starts life in handicap company off what I think is a fair mark judged on an impressive win at Lingfield in December and a subsequent second to Raised on Grazeon at Catterick on New Year’s Day.
She is almost certain to do better over a longer trip, so the increase to 2m 2f here is definitely a step in the right direction. Jamie Snowden’s horses are running well – he had a winner at Ffos Las earlier in the week and Monbeg Theatre ran a big race at Ludlow on Wednesday.
Polly’s Pursuit is creeping up the weights for not winning. Up another 2lb for finishing third at Doncaster last time out and Nicky Henderson’s charge seems to be paying the price for an 18 length win in a maiden hurdle at Southwell which might have been over-valued by the handicapper.
Harry’s Fry’s Lamanver Odyssey has the class to win this but she was beaten before falling at Cheltenham in December and pulled up in a Listed race at Warwick last time out.
5.10 Warwick Sister to a high-class hurdler and with the dam related to an Oaks winner, Be That As It May has shown promise in spades at home for Nicky Henderson, says my man in the long grass.
Owned by J P McManus, who is hoping to see this one ready in time for one of the big bumpers at Aintree or Punchestown. Odds against this morning is likely to evaporate. Nap.
6.15 Wolverhampton Striking whilst the iron is hot seems the call with Navajo Star who has a statutory 6lb penalty for her Chelmsford win eight days ago.
She won well and is a resolute stayer who might be worth following in again. Canford Thompson was a 25/1 runner-up at Chelmsford but is an in and out performer who couldn’t be trusted to reverse the form, despite the better terms.
A bigger danger may come from Rock’n Gold who is dropping down the weights.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 5.2pts win KALAHARI QUEEN (3.40 Exeter)
BET 13.1pts win (nap) BE THAT AS IT MAY (5.10 Warwick)
BET 6.0pts win NAVAJO STAR (6.15 Wolverhampton)
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