FOUR WINNING DAYS IN A ROW: Thanks to Banny’s Lad (WON 9-2) yesterday, Daqman has now landed 108 points profit from eight winners this week, three of them naps, with every day a winning day. His best-priced returns have been:
WON 8-1 Coolking (Monday nap)
WON 8-1 Plaisir d’Amour (Tuesday)
WON 5-1 Mossback (Wednesday)
WON 9-2 Banny’s Lad (Thursday)
WON 7-2 Tommy Silver (Tuesday nap)
TWO NATIONALS IN A WEEK? Today Daqman analyses the Devon National at Exeter, his week having started with the Surrey National winner at 8-1. He has two bets in today’s West Country equivalent at 4.9 and 15.5.
SPOOKY DEVON NATIONAL PLOT
3.50 Exeter (Devon National) Like the original at Aintree, better-quality horses have taken over. Success for 112-113 rated jumpers seems to belong to the past. With one exception, winners in the last five years have started off 122, 125, 124, 124.
Jonjo O’Neill’s form in the race since 2009 is 11P1, and Spookydooky on 126 has slid to a mark 16lb lower than after his last win 15 months ago. In the interim, he’s been runner-up in the Tommy Whittle and fourth in the Midlands National, and could take advantage of the handicapper’s leniency any time now.
Also around the right mark, but with little form on show, is Audacious Plan (1-12), while Say My Name surely needs more experience after just one novice-chase run.
Barton Gift has already won over the Exeter CD but that was off 109, and scoring twice at Bangor this winter at a lower level has raised him to 127 for this.
Can his progress continue at the age of 10? No one’s believed his rise and rise of the last 10 months, as revealed by his winning SPs of 8-1, 28-1 and 10-1 consecutively.
He’s a great jumper who doesn’t like horses around him, and he’ll have to battle with his weight to find more from the front today.
Abracadabra Sivola, second in the Somerset National, was dropped back to 2m 7f to score at Taunton afterwards. That’s his trip on form and breeding. Ditto: Kingswell Theatre.
The 2015 Warwick Classic runner-up Theatrical Star has not been in the winner’s enclosure since December 2014, securing places off ratings varying between 122 and 139, so I regard him as unpredictable and one-paced.
A Lincolnshire National winner in 2015 off 94, West of The Edge then struggled in chases off a higher mark but is 2-2 since being switched to Dr Richard Newland.
Woodford County won the Exeter Marathon over CD in December 2015 but since then has been twice pulled up and been beaten a total of 231 lengths in five other races. The handicapper has at long last dropped him a few pounds and he’s claimed off for 5lb more.
Millicent Silver has also been given some encouragement by the handicapper to try to help the grey mare find her form of back-to-back staying success in the Spring of last year before a bad fall (brought down).
A recent hurdles run (visor replaced cheekpieces) could have restored her confidence, and she is with the right outfit to progress in marathon events.
Vice Et Vertu and Talk Of The South are young enough to improve but seem locked down at class-4 level, as their form stands.
VERDICT: My three are, therefore, Millicent Silver, Spookydooky and West of The Edge. In the BETDAQ offers this morning, Millicent Silver (15.5) is all wrong; she’s better than that.
There’s not much between West of The Edge (4.4) and Spookydooky (4.9), with Richard Newland currently 3-4 and Jonjo O’Neill in his best form for months. I’ll take Spooky as best handicapped in the race.
GILGAMESH NAPPED AT WOLVER
2.45 Exeter Alan King is keen on Giveaway Chance, whose dam is related to his Triumph winner, Katchit.
He’s pitched her into a handicap here but, as four-year-old, she gets lumps of weight more than her mark, and is worth a bit of win and place at 8.0 on BETDAQ.
3.35 Warwick The winners of this have all been class-2 animals, all from the bottom half of the handicap, below 11st.
Doitforthevillage has gone up 16lb in the last 10 weeks for three wins out of four, which lifts him, however unwillingly, out of class 4, so this class 2 is his most severe test.
Templehills has scored four out of five still standing since September, including over this CD a fortnight back; he’s up 18lb, and has fallen twice.
Ballygarvey and No Buts are down 16lb and 14lb respectively but neither has won for more than two years. Johnny Og is a more recent winner – at Stratford in October – but has been disappointing since.
Pressurise won three times in the early part of last year, and trainer Venetia Williams has had 4-7 still standing since Saturday. Seems to have found an easy target here.
VERDICT: Doitforthevillage has to take a big leap forward, while Templehills has fallen as many times as he’s won since November. Because his yard is flying, I’ll take a chance on Pressurize being match fit at 7.8 offers on BETDAQ.
THE NAP Gilgamesh (7.15 Wolverhampton) is thought to be a blot on the handicap here, far better than the bare form with around 2.98 being exchanged this morning.
Gilgamesh’s sire is 50% at Wolver; the trainer is 43% with first-time handicappers; Jamie Spencer booked; and the nearest rival in the market, Tailors Row, hasn’t won since the debut, always a bad sign.
DAQMAN BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 2.75pts win and place GIVEAWAY CHANCE (2.45 Exeter)
BET 3pts win PRESSURIZE (3.35 Warwick)
BET 5pts win SPOOKYDOOKY, and 1.5pts win and place MILLICENT SILVER (3.50 Exeter)
BET 10pts win (nap) GILGAMESH (7.15 Wolverhampton)
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