CHELTENHAM COUNTDOWN: IT’S GOLD CUP DAY: Daqman completes his day-by-day stats and facts countdown to Cheltenham by checking out six of the seven races on Gold Cup day; the seventh is a new mares chase. Tomorrow is Imperial Cup day at Sandown but there will be final Festival previews from Daqman on Sunday and Monday.
MURPHY MISSES PLANNED COMEBACK RIDES: Dual champion Flat jockey Oisin Murphy, due to return to the saddle in England today, has to sit it out due to an ‘administrative error.’ Daqman reckons he will miss a winner. He also has his eye on a Cheltenham withdrawal running at Gowran Park (‘today is his Cheltenham’).
FESTIVAL STATS: GOLD CUP DAY
Where do the Cheltenham winners come from? Which are best and worst races for favourites? Where would you logically look for lays? Here are the stats and facts for Gold Cup day at the festival.
It’s your guide to ratings, trainers, form, age, weight and a special feature on favourites. And don’t forget there’s CHELTENHAM 0% COMMISSION ON BETDAQ
▪️ LAYS LOGIC: Favourites of 13-2 or shorter in Friday races which show poor results for the market leader – races 2, 3 and 7 – lost 15 times out of 16.
⭕ 1.20 Cheltenham, Friday (Triumph Hurdle) Four-year-olds only. Favourites three out of 10. Outsiders at 10-1, 12-1, 20-1 and 33-1.
Trainers: Nicky Henderson (3 in 11 seasons) .Ratings: 155, 142, 155, 140, 141 notional, 120 notional.
▪️ Not a lays race
⭕ 1.55 Cheltenham, Friday (County Hurdle) Favourites: 1-11. Outsiders at 33-1, 25-1, 20-1 (three).
Age: 5 and 6 (8/11). Weight: no more than 11st 1lb (7/10). Trainers: Dan Skelton (3/4); Willie Mullins (4/10).
Ratings: 138, 138, 158, 139, 146, 137. No horse has won this twice since 1946.
▪️ LAYS LOGIC: Favourites finished 7-1 jt fav 4th and UR (2016); 5-1 fav 6th (2017), 6-1 fav 16th (2018), 5-1 fav 4th (2019), 11-2 fav WON (2020)
⭕ 2.30 Cheltenham, Friday (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle) No winning favourite in seven years (33-1 twice and 50-1).
Age 6 and 7 (9 out of 11). Seven out of 14 winners had raced at Cheltenham before: 10 out of 14 had scored in a Graded race, and 12 out of 14 had won at around 3m.
Ratings: 140, 152, 143, 143, 146 notional, 152.
▪️ LAYS LOGIC: Favourites finished: 7-2 fav PU (2016), 9-4 fav 5th (2017), 11-4 fav 4th; 4-1 fav 2nd; 4-1 fav 4th.
⭕ 3.05 Cheltenham, Friday (Gold Cup) Four favourites have won in the decade and 8/10 were 8-1 or shorter at SP. The last six winners had won two of their last three races.
Age, 7, 8 and 9 (10/11). Trainers: Willie Mullins (2) is going for a hat-trick; Nicky Henderson (2). Ratings: 152, 166, 175, 167, 166, 164, 175.
There had been Graded race wins for all of the last 14 (Grade-1 11/11), and 14 out of 14 had also raced at Cheltenham before; 13 out of 14 had won at 3m or further, and 14 out of 14 had won at least two chases.
▪️ Not a lays race
⭕ 3.40 Cheltenham, Friday (Hunter-chasers’ Challenge Cup) Three favourites have won in the last five seasons. Last six winners all aged 10 or 11.
Trainers: Paul Nicholls (2), Enda Bolger (2). Won over at least 3m (9/10). Ratings: 141, 147, 138, 138, 139, 126.
▪️ Not a lays race
⭕ 4.15 Cheltenham, Friday (Mares’ Chase) New race
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham Friday (Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle) Favourites: just one win 10 years ago (six in a row 5-1 to 14-1 SP until 25-1 last season). Ages: 5 and 6 (eight out of 10).
Weight: 11st 5lb and above (6/8))
Trainers: W Mullins (3), P. Nicholls (2). Ratings: 135, 139, 138, 144, 145, 145.
▪️ LAYS LOGIC: Favourites finished 9-4 fav 7th (2016), 9-2 fav 8th (2017), 13-2 fav 12th (2018); 7-2 fav 2nd (2019); 4-1 fav 12th (2020).
SKY-HIGH MURPHY HOPES LOST
⭕ 2.05 Lingfield Champion-jockey Oisin Murphy was due to return to the saddle for long-time supporter James Tate at Lingfield today but an ‘administrative error’ has ruled him out. It may have cost him a winner.
My man in the long grass reckons Sky Commander (BETDAQ 6.6) was lined up for a winning Murphy comeback.
The four-year-old zipped up at Kempton seven lengths to break his own maiden but has been nursed through problems since.
Patience is its own reward; aiming straight for a class 3 is a good sign; his dam was a dual winner on AW surfaces; and her sire was Shamardal, who could pass on some of that ability to improve progeny in their second and third seasons.
It’s a field of older horses in the main, mostly with wins already this year but none sure to repeat that form.
Hollie Doyle – a double at Newcastle yesterday – is likely to make the running on Going Places.
ARDMAYLE FOR DELAYED DOUBLE
⭕ 3.40 Sandown It’s a trappy novices card, apart from this handicap chase and the handicap hurdle which follows.
The assumption here is that Gary Moore, who won this in 2012 and 2018, has lined up The Flying Sofa (set-teed up for the race?)
Drops back to the trip of his one win from seven when, in a four-horse affair, he just held off 00F Eskendash, who has failed to score since and reached the frame only in a three-runner race!
Go Long made all when beating a Gary Moore favourite at Fontwell in November (going good to soft).
But my choice if the rain gets into the ground is Ardmayle, who won this last time it was run in 2019 off 2lb higher and has the stamina (has won over further) to overhaul Go Long.
Cheekpieces first time; James Bowen back in the saddle. A value 8.8 on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
Frero Banbou has yet to show his French form for Venetia Williams in England and that was on very soft ground.
Monsieur d’Arque has had a second wind op after a poor run at Kempton, and returns to the minimum (form in senior contests 122) on ground he prefers (form with ‘good’ in the going return since last summer 1222).
IT’S PONT AVEN’S CHELTENHAM
⭕ 3.55 Gowran Park Pont Aven has his Cheltenham in this Grade B. I thought his second to Daly Tiger at Fairyhouse in January had set him up for the Grand Annual but he flopped at Leopardstown (first-time hood that day; now removed).
And I conceded that Fortune Cookies were a mistake in this topsy-turvy season of bog-heavy ground. So I quit while the Cookies were ahead.
Pont Aven could get compensation here (BETDAQ 7.0) but I fancy another fella is looking for some spending money at the Festival like myself. He’s always a bit short at this time of year before he is one of the Irish to fill their boots next week.
That’s J P McManus, who has a likely lad here in Kitten Rock (BETDAQ 21.0) . Back to form at Naas the last day under Simon Torrens, he has a big weights pull with the winner, Minella Till Dawn.
He’s been dropped 16lb in the last year and now 27lb lower than in his salad days, plus the very smart claimer’s 5lb.
Kitten Rock’s former champion trainer, Edward O’Grady, is still fifth highest Irish scorer at Cheltenham with 18.
STAYING ON THE SEA’S SIDE
⭕ 6.15 Wolverhampton I could get 8 for every 10 if I backed Sea The Shells this morning, with Echo Point unable to support the favourite and drifting out to 3.6.
Sea The Shells, already a winner here over the CD, is described as Mark Johnston’s Derby hope (he’s 50-1 with Ladbrokes, the sponsor of this race at Wolver).
It’s a bit early to talk of Epsom but, along with a sequence horse of Sir Mark Prescott’s running here today (1.00 Caribeno), it feels like Spring has sprung and the Flat season isn’t far away.
The hopeful view is that Sea The Shells pays for my day at Gowran Park, Lingfield and Sandown, though I hope I’ve had a winner by then.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.05 Lingfield (win 20)
BET 3.5pts win SKY COMMANDER
3.40 Sandown (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win ARDMAYLE
3.55 Gowran Park (win 20)
BET 3.25pts win PONT AVEN
BET 1pt win KITTEN ROCK
6.15 Wolverhampton (win 10 nap)
BET 12pts win SEA THE SHELLS
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